Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
With vaccination, Delta cases are irrelevant. Hospitalisations and Deaths are all that count.
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I am also in the camp of let it do its worst now because we have only the choice now of moderating its growth which is no choice at all. However, there is a cost to the virus growth that is driving this epidemic and that's mutation. If w need 5 million more infections in the UK to stop the spread then we'll get the same number of mutations to get that 5 million whether it be over 1 month or 3.

But we still have to watch it. Each infection generates 0.5 mutations so if you ignore the cases you ignore the dynamic of this epidemic which is adaptation to its human host. For example, alpha variant is incorporating the E484K and L452R escape mutations. E484K is seen in the Beta variant, and L452R is seen in the Delta variant. The delta variant does not seem to be doing this at the moment, probably because there is less selection pressure on it.

I have the idea that the rate of effective adaptation should slow with time (assuming a constant infection rate). There is only one perfect fit to the human receptor cell. At first many structural changes should lead to improvements and better fits but over time I think the scope for adaptive change will slow. It's like a giraffe's neck and the leaves on trees. Once you can reach the fresh leaves, and buds, there's no selective pressure. I am pretty confident this theory is correct but I have no idea over what time period it should play out. Thousands of years or years?
 
Once the number of cases climbs, particularly amongst the young, what is the likelihood of people actually going to be tested? And, is the absence of such information a problem?
 
ctwrd said:
Even sage say cases will fall soon. Let’s get on with things.
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There is no alternative but to do so but we need to follow through with vaccine development only there's more to vaccine development than science. The science tends to get utilised when it maximises a return on capital.
 
Have you come across the term hybrid immunity? Seems to capture the strategy quite well. Vaccinate the old, burn it out in the young.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
It was in reply to your who let it in question. It might have been delayed slightly but it was always coming here in force.
Not that I believe that you care a great deal about it, other than using it as as opportunity to politically point score.
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Not really mate
Just never understood why there was a 'slight delay' (two weeks) in India going on the red list compared to Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Any ideas?
 
Marvin said:
Have you come across the term hybrid immunity? Seems to capture the strategy quite well. Vaccinate the old, burn it out in the young.
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It's a hybrid of almost unavoidable and the easiest option.

People don't half talk a lot of crap about these things tho.

Like it will take all the succeptible this time, and that's the end of it. Nope. Succeptibility of an individual to a particular disease is not a static measure. The environmental variables will matter - and then there's the pure chance of it, the things that happen inside the patient we don't fully understand.

The reality is, it will take a portion of the more vulnerable, and some of the others. If it does come back again in a similar form, the same thing will happen then.

And it's not without cost. We'll be trading temporary immunity to COVID with long term succeptibility for other health conditions. And that's if we do achieve a meaningful and lasting resistance in the community.
 
Marvin said:
I am also in the camp of let it do its worst now because we have only the choice now of moderating its growth which is no choice at all. However, there is a cost to the virus growth that is driving this epidemic and that's mutation. If w need 5 million more infections in the UK to stop the spread then we'll get the same number of mutations to get that 5 million whether it be over 1 month or 3.

But we still have to watch it. Each infection generates 0.5 mutations so if you ignore the cases you ignore the dynamic of this epidemic which is adaptation to its human host. For example, alpha variant is incorporating the E484K and L452R escape mutations. E484K is seen in the Beta variant, and L452R is seen in the Delta variant. The delta variant does not seem to be doing this at the moment, probably because there is less selection pressure on it.

I have the idea that the rate of effective adaptation should slow with time (assuming a constant infection rate). There is only one perfect fit to the human receptor cell. At first many structural changes should lead to improvements and better fits but over time I think the scope for adaptive change will slow. It's like a giraffe's neck and the leaves on trees. Once you can reach the fresh leaves, and buds, there's no selective pressure. I am pretty confident this theory is correct but I have no idea over what time period it should play out. Thousands of years or years?
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Good point - But Delta is so infectious you would litterally have to shut the whole country down for 5 weeks to stop it. Previous infection prevention rules don't work. Only vaccination is keeping us out of deep trouble.
 
Who’d have thought that 18 months on from the start of the pandemic we’d still be in this current position.

The Chinese have a lot to answer for, and I hope they get their comeuppance at some point.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Who’d have thought that 18 months on from the start of the pandemic we’d still be in this current position.

The Chinese have a lot to answer for, and I hope they get their comeuppance at some point.
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Could start by bringing forward kick off tomorrow to 3pm. It’s only on ridiculously late so they can watch it
 
I reckon the whole country will be isolating within 2 weeks.
I have to isolate for 10 days starting last Wednesday as my partners son had a positive test this morning.
Even though I have no symptoms, am double jabbed and have had 2 -ve LF tests since I saw him on Wednesday.
35k+ a day - an average of 4 isolations per test. Now that is exponential.
 
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Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Sounds like my lad has got it. Off for his PCR today. Had one jab about a month ago so I hope it keeps the worst of it at bay. He feels rough though.
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nightmare when it happens to your kids even though the stats tell you to be cool you can't help going into the paranoid parent zone - my lads have had 5 tests in the last two weeks due to close contacts - reminded me of staring at those pregnancy test kits back in the day either with eager anticipation or dread...

Sure your lad will be fine especially with the first jab a month ago as the stats on that are still very good against hospitalisation etc after 1
 
BlueAnorak said:
I reckon the whole country will be isolating within 2 weeks.
I have to isolate for 10 days starting last Wednesday as my partners son had a positive test this morning.
Even though I have no symptoms, am double jabbed and have had 2 -ve LF tests since I saw him on Wednesday.
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I imagine many will have indeed been asked to isolate, though whether they all heed that call is moot.
 
Zoe data by the way showed a small fall from 33, 719 to 33, 287 predicted cases yesterday, First drop in some time.

But as you saw in real life they went up above that number. So not perfect,

Total ongoing infections rose by 9061 - smaller than of late too - to 432, 304.

Half a million in the UK having Covid right now is well in line with the current weekly estimates.

In GM the rise of Stockport continues (on 7428 - it was in the 2000s a few days ago).

Bury rather oddly still is top (but falling) on 15, 503 (in truth Stockport and Bury are posting pretty similar numbers in the actual data).

Salford is second behind a falling Bury on 14, 604 - more in keeping with the daily cases posted,

Manchester just behind on 11, 930 (and falling) - which does match real world data.

Bolton's rise sees it now on 10, 494 - again matching actual cases.

Wigan just behind on 10, 410

Trafford has been falling on Zoe but not yet in real life cases and is today on 7459 only just ahead of Stockport whereas in real numbers yesterday it was very different, With Trafford one of its highest numbers ever,

Rochdale on 7409 is almost exactly the same as Stockport which is again nothing like the case numbers yesterday where it was almost twice the level of Stockport,

Tameside on 5938 is also below the ones above,

And Oldham on 4007 is best in GM which is absurd given the numbers yesterday that were some of the highest ever in GM.

These are relative scores not real numbers and more a trend prediction than actual data so we should see what happens as it is broadly good news for GM with overall numbers falling to moderate not sky h1gh levels,

Elsewhere in the NW St Helens is in most trouble (and has had a few recent deaths) - at 17, 013.

Wirral going up too on 11, 930 and Liverpool still in 5 figures though down on where it was on 10, 701.


In the overall regions of the UK numbers N Ireland is escalating way above the rest with an upper level of 2665 - making it in a new very dark maroon band all on its own.

Scotland is next - though on just 1108 by comparison - in the next band on its own.

NE & Yorkshire has now risen to worst in England topping the next band with an upper number of 957.

North West is next in the same band with an upper number of 823.

And London catching up fast on 747.


These numbers are not exactly the same but similar to a Pop Score so you can roughly compare GM with them - and see nowhere in GM reaches any of these levels,

Oldham on 615 tops the ten GM boroughs and Bolton on 325 is lowest
 
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