Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

as has been mentioned before, comparing UK wide is poinless. if 3/4's of those in hospital were in the north west then its an issue. they are not going to shift peolpe from the NW to say Birminham to get a free bed if the region fills up.

Not suggesting this is the case mind you, just pointing out the flaw in the logic of using UK wide hospital beds.

Which is why I post all the England regional hospital numbers each evening in here.

 

[Healdplace]

LAST NIGHTS PATIENT DATA - SEPARATE POSTS BEFORE IT ON ADMISSIONS AND AFTER IT ON VENTILATOR NUMBERS - AND ANOTHER LATER ON UK NUMBERS IF ANYONE WANTS TO LOOK BACK.


ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA PATIENTS

Total up 140 to 3110.

Last Wednesday numbers rose by 146 to 2144

Regions: Change since yesterday and V was Last Wednesday

EAST UP 3 to 154 - was 105

LONDON UP 26 to 540 - was 397

MIDLANDS UP 76 to 601 - was 375 - MIDLANDS RAPIDLY FOLLOWING NE & YORKS AS NEXT BIG UPTICK REGION

NE & YORKSHIRE UP 14 to 657 - was 420 - BIG WEEK TO WEEK RISE

SOUTH EAST UP 21 to 227 - was 143

SOUTH WEST UP 1 to 160 - was 104


AS FOR THE NORTH WEST:-

DOWN 1 to 771 - was 600


Only by 1 but not only lower admissions Monday but the only region with net fall in patient numbers today.

This is a hopeful sign.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

So - yes - cases and hospital numbers and deaths are all going up and will go up over the next few weeks.

And - yes - we likely will top 100 deaths on a day in England let alone the UK now a near certainty - over the next week or two,

But the NW is the biggest England region. Scotland the second biggest nation.

IF - and it is still an IF - these positive signs from both are the first in first out effect from this wave then that is hopeful news.


Because we can more clearly track what will probably happen elsewhere and if it follows suit we will have a peak in the next 3/4 weeks maybe and it will be at 3 figures in deaths and possibly even five figures in patients.

But I am hopeful that is about it and I think we can be very hopeful it will be nowhere near what happened in January even f we have more cases than the peak then over 60K. As may well happen in coming weeks.

We all know why this huge difference is occurring.

Thanks - just out of interest and I'm not assuming you know but I'm curious to know what age ranges are the deaths happening?
Yesterday was 50 dead - so was this elderly people who have been vaccinated or the other end of the scale, young people who have only had 1 or no jabs?
I know the vaccine is not 100% but to me 50 dead still seems a high figure given our excellent vaccine roll out.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks - just out of interest and I'm not assuming you know but I'm curious to know what age ranges are the deaths happening?
Yesterday was 50 dead - so was this elderly people who have been vaccinated or the other end of the scale, young people who have only had 1 or no jabs?
I know the vaccine is not 100% but to me 50 dead still seems a high figure given our excellent vaccine roll out.

I post the age ranges of the England hospitals deaths around this time every afternoon as soon as they are posted,

Search on my posts Mon - Fri above around 2.30 PM you can track every day.

Todays is coming shortly,

 

[BLUEMATT23]

I post the age ranges of the England hospitals deaths around this time every afternoon as soon as they are posted,

Search on my posts Mon - Fri above around 2.30 PM you can track every day.

Todays is coming shortly,

WIll do thanks

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL 35 DEATHS

By region: 1 East, 3 London. 6 Midlands, 13 NE & Yorkshire, 9 North West, 1 South East, 2 South West

NW deaths: 3 Southport, 2 Manchester, 2 Lancashire, 1 Christies, 1 Mid Cheshire

The most deaths were 7 in South Tyneside

By age range: 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (3), 60 - 79 (15), 80 PLUS (15).

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS BY DAY:

There is little doubt now this is starting to rise quite fast upward like Scotland did today.

As we are in the early stages of the rising deaths in other regions starting to filter through due to the 2 or 3 week lag behind case numbers and hospitalisation this is nowhere near what will be the numbers this time in August.

NW is though showing a sign of its falling proportionately but still at high numbers as cases are still high .

14 JUL added 4 (last wk 3 added)

13 JUL added 19 (last wk 9 added). THIS IS THE BIGGEST DAILY ADD ON SINCE 31 MARCH.

The two day total for 13 Jul is now 24 THIS IS THE HGHEST TWO DAY NUMBER SINCE 8 APRIL

12 JUL added 3 to total 15 after 3 days (was 2 to equal 12 last week)

11 JUL added 2 to total 17 after 4 days (was 0 to equal 13 last week)

10 JUL added 2 to total 20 after 5 days (was 0 to equal 15 last week)



The last 7 days weekly total - 4 to 10 JUL is 15 / 16 / 15 / 14 / 22 / 24 / 20 = TOTAL OF 126

Week before was 10 / 9 / 10 / 19 / 11 / 22 / 15 = TOTAL OF 96

Week before that (20 - 26 JUN) was 14 / 11 / 7 / 4 / 14 / 14 / 4 = TOTAL OF 68

 

[Gabriel]

New cases in the Netherlands up to 11,064 today, and the ECDC has decided that the country should be reclassified for tourism and coloured what Dulux might engagingly call ‘Ruby Starlet’.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Sadly this will not brighten your mood much

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1083 cases - was 627 last week FIRST OVER 1000 CASES SINCE 15 JANUARY

30.1% positivity - was 19.9% last week

4437 seven day rolling cases total - was 3977 yesterday & 2257 last week

19 Care Home Outbreaks - was 16 yesterday and 9 last week. THIS IS GETTING RATHER DISTURBING IT WAS DOWN TO ALMOST ZERO PRE DELTA

80 patients - up from 72 yesterday & 48 last week

1 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 0 last week

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE


0 - 19 (1231) 27.8%

20 - 39 (2061) 46.5%

40 - 59 (837) 18.9%

60 - 79 (259) 5.8%

80 PLUS (47) 1.0%


The same trend. The over 60s - have gone up from under 3% to now nearly 7% but are not rising much even now cases are going up a lot day to day.

The numbers in the 40 - 59 group have actually fallen back below 20% in past few days - cutting the over 40s to only just over a quarter of all cases for the first time in a couple of weeks.

A reversal of recent trends in a good way,

At 74.3% under 40 testing positive that is also the biggest rise in the past week or so. t has fallen from 80% at one stage to just under 70%

I think if these are real changes not just a quirk of rising numbers it is a positive sign as more and more over 40 will be getting double jabbed,

 

[Healdplace]

So the UK deaths today with just out of hospital England to add are 54.

Last week it was 23. More than doubled. Biggest recent rise wk to wk.

That 23 became 35 on all settings so I am sadly expecting the number today to be the highest in some while. But unfortunately not likely the highest we will reach in coming weeks.

 

[Healdplace]

The UK cases today with England to come totals 4030 - last week it was 4130,

Increase in Wales - big rise in N Ireland - but big fall in Scotland.

England last week added 28, 421 to total 32, 551

Yesterday England added 37, 895 to the three nations 4407 to equal 42, 302

 

[artfuldodger]

Tbh I think it'll be business as usual. Apart from being able to get a drink at the bar rather than piss about trying to grab a waiters attention or download one of 10,000 different bar ordering apps, nothing is really changing. Lots of places encouraging people to use masks and keeping distanced tables etc.

Music venues are a major thing but due to the fluffy guidance and back and forth from the government, nobody is really geared up to open properly for full shows and July is usually a quiet period anyway (I work in the sector).

Nightclubs are another thing entirely of course...and some of those places just don't give a shit and want to make some much missed cash, which is a bit of a concern I must say.

I was thinking this today. I’ve kids between 19 and 31 and none have made plans for nightclubs or anything similar next week. If fact they’re not sure if any are open. Plus we’ve a heatwave coming!! On our calendar there are several outdoor gigs, but nothing indoors until October. I can’t help but think the biggest risks are large indoor weddings. Mixed age groups, lots of socialising across family/friends, dancing, drinking,singing, buffet eating, over many hours. Thank goodness I’ve not been invited to any!!

 

[Healdplace]

Here are the covid antibody numbers (from either vaccine or catching and fighting it) in England this week (calculated from blood donors).

V last week (though the data itself will lag a week or so too)

AGES // PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION WITH COVID ANTIBODIES // LAST WEEK


70 -84 IS 99.7% WAS 99.5%

60 - 69 IS 99.1% WAS 99.1%

50 - 59 IS 98.0% WAS 98.1%

40 - 49 IS 96.4% WAS 95.9%

30 - 39 IS 92.1% WAS 87.3%

17 - 29 IS 68.4% WAS 59.5%

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Here are the covid antibody numbers (from either vaccine or catching and fighting it) in England this week (calculated from blood donors).

V last week (though the data itself will lag a week or so too)

AGES // PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION WITH COVID ANTIBODIES // LAST WEEK


70 -84 IS 99.7% WAS 99.5%

60 - 69 IS 99.1% WAS 99.1%

50 - 59 IS 98.0% WAS 98.1%

40 - 49 IS 96.4% WAS 95.9%

30 - 39 IS 92.1% WAS 87.3%

17 - 29 IS 68.4% WAS 59.5%

That has to be positive news

 

[Gabriel]

I was thinking this today. I’ve kids between 19 and 31 and none have made plans for nightclubs or anything similar next week. If fact they’re not sure if any are open. Plus we’ve a heatwave coming!! On our calendar there are several outdoor gigs, but nothing indoors until October. I can’t help but think the biggest risks are large indoor weddings. Mixed age groups, lots of socialising across family/friends, dancing, drinking,singing, buffet eating, over many hours. Thank goodness I’ve not been invited to any!!

You can see from countries across the continent that the explosion in cases is all too often associated with bars and nightclubs. Loud music, proximity, alcohol, and poor ventilation, an unsurprisingly heady cocktail. Cases first appear amongst the younger attendees and then seep back into their communities.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

So the UK deaths today with just out of hospital England to add are 54.

Last week it was 23. More than doubled. Biggest recent rise wk to wk.

That 23 became 35 on all settings so I am sadly expecting the number today to be the highest in some while. But unfortunately not likely the highest we will reach in coming weeks.

The decision to appoint a Health Secretary who believes ending restrictions reduces pressure on the NHS is looking very dodgy.

 

[Healdplace]

That has to be positive news

It should be and has been not that far off for some weeks steadily rising.

But unclear how much difference it makes with Delta.

It will help explain why most people catching it are in the younger age groups though.

 

[feelymcfeel]

I was thinking this today. I’ve kids between 19 and 31 and none have made plans for nightclubs or anything similar next week. If fact they’re not sure if any are open. Plus we’ve a heatwave coming!! On our calendar there are several outdoor gigs, but nothing indoors until October. I can’t help but think the biggest risks are large indoor weddings. Mixed age groups, lots of socialising across family/friends, dancing, drinking,singing, buffet eating, over many hours. Thank goodness I’ve not been invited to any!!

I've got Ultimate Power - a power ballads clubnight - booked in at the Ritz for 30th July for my brother's 30th birthday, and i just booked a ticket to see Devin Townsend at the Academy on 12th August. It'll be interesting to see how they're managed.

After that Elton John at the end of October, but there are some seriously good gigs that are scheduled for later in the year so hopefully they go ahead.

 

[artfuldodger]

I've got Ultimate Power - a power ballads clubnight - booked in at the Ritz for 30th July for my brother's 30th birthday, and i just booked a ticket to see Devin Townsend at the Academy on 12th August. It'll be interesting to see how they're managed.

After that Elton John at the end of October, but there are some seriously good gigs that are scheduled for later in the year so hopefully they go ahead.

Yes, my calendar gig wise goes a bit mental from October. Most of them from last year!