Coronavirus (2021) thread

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unicorn said:
I thought life was largely back till normal and most of us were living with, though never eliminating, reduced Covid risk.

But I visited my Mum (she's 81) yesterday and she was in a real state because Dad had let a stranger into the house for an emergency wee. She'd spent the rest of the day disinfecting the toilet and the door handles. 2 years ago the house, the most prominent one in the Fen village, would always have folk popping in for a cuppa and a chat.

A lot of older folk are still terrified to leave the house, particularly with the scare stories in the media.
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That’s really sad.

Fear was a key tactic 18 months ago, and it worked. Unfortunately it’s not the kind of thing you can just turn off in people.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Kind of depends if it is ethical.
I would think Long Covid numbers would have to be as high as the rest of the population for that to happen. Deaths are low - compared with 30-40 year olds so on that score it wouldn't be ethical.
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Benefits vastly outweigh risks when the inevitability of nearly the whole cohort ultimately becoming infected. Current assessment seems to be based on low infection rates, but JCVI has provided no quantitative risk analysis. Conclusions at odds with most of the rest of the world.

Quantitative risk analysis (submitted to lancet):

 
roubaixtuesday said:
Benefits vastly outweigh risks when the inevitability of nearly the whole cohort ultimately becoming infected. Current assessment seems to be based on low infection rates, but JCVI has provided no quantitative risk analysis. Conclusions at odds with most of the rest of the world.

Quantitative risk analysis (submitted to lancet):

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BMA medicine/vaccine ethics seem to concentrate on benefits to the person being medicated/vaccinated rather than the benefits to society as a whole.
As such the benefits are not that great- unless Long Covid is a thing amongst younger teens.
Many physicians would disagree with that paper. The previous JCVI committee membership for a start. For example, the high prevalence of Myocarditis in mRNA vaccinated fit young males is one such issue that isn't even mentioned in the paper you posted a link for.
Just passing on the description given to me by my daughter who is a Consultant Physician
 
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BlueAnorak said:
BMA medicine/vaccine ethics seem to concentrate on benefits to the person being medicated/vaccinated rather than the benefits to society as a whole.
As such the benefits are not that great- unless Long Covid is a thing amongst younger teens.
Just passing on the description given to me by my daughter who is a Consultant Physician
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But the benefits do outweigh the risks, according to that paper, the MHRA, and almost every other country in the developed world.

And the JCVI has, very unimpressively, not quantified their analysis, so it's impossible to judge if it's reasonable or not.

As far as analysis has been published, it clearly seems to show benefit outweighs risk.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
But the benefits do outweigh the risks, according to that paper, the MHRA, and almost every other country in the developed world.

And the JCVI has, very unimpressively, not quantified their analysis, so it's impossible to judge if it's reasonable or not.

As far as analysis has been published, it clearly seems to show benefit outweighs risk.
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Myocarditis isn't even mentioned in that paper and it is a thing - especially for younger males and athletic females. Just passing on medical thinking outside your bubble. I suspect if that is resolved then it will get the green light.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Just passing on medical thinking outside your bubble.
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For perusal in your bubble

www.newscientist.com

Myocarditis is more common after covid-19 infection than vaccination

Myocarditis involves the inflammation of heart muscle tissue This article was published in 2021. Read this 2022 article for a more up-to-date look at myocarditis and covid-19 vaccines. HEART inflammation triggered by some covid-19 vaccines has been a concern, especially in younger people, but a...
www.newscientist.com www.newscientist.com
 
BlueAnorak said:
Myocarditis isn't even mentioned in that paper and it is a thing - especially for younger males and athletic females. Just passing on medical thinking outside your bubble. I suspect if that is resolved then it will get the green light.
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Speaking with a colleague tonight and her other half,a marathon runner,has developed LVH and is being tested for myocarditis,since having the vaccination.He is struggling to perform any exercise currently due to breathing issues.
 
Vaccination has been a rip roaring success but stopping 300 12-15 year olds going into ICU and 30 deaths is not in any way a major benefit in a population cohort of 3.2m (approx 800,000 in each year band.
Indeed as the study is based on data from the US, it may be that only obese children (those seemingly at risk) will actually benefit from vaccination while most won't.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
Forgive me if I disagree that saving the lives of 30 children isn't a major benefit.
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Each to their own.
Of course its a benefit but banning car travel would be as beneficial in terms of death reduction and vaccination of those at risk would probably have the same effect.
A decision that most of the medical establishment can agree on will emerge over the next few weeks.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
Rapid accurate 10 minute RTF-EXPAR tests have been developed by Birmingham University
www.birmingham.ac.uk

Birmingham researchers confirm speed, simplicity and sensitivity for new COVID-19 test - University of Birmingham

Researchers from the University of Birmingham have confirmed the speed, accuracy and simplicity of a novel, highly sensitive testing method for COVID-19.
www.birmingham.ac.uk www.birmingham.ac.uk
The Telegraph says they are going to be installed at airports in weeks.
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Could be a game changer for travel and entertainment sectors.

Interesting to see how it materialises.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Interesting points from Dr John in yesterday's video on Isreal (the vast majority seriously ill are unvaccinated) and on Long Covid.
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That is very apparent when you look at Israel's government health figures, yes I was that sad to go check for myself a week or so back.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
That is very apparent when you look at Israel's government health figures, yes I was that sad to go check for myself a week or so back.
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It should be remembered that 8 weeks between jabs generates 3.5 times the number of antibodies than the official mRNA 3 weeks.
Whether they last 3.5 times longer or decay in the same time frame is a moot point. PHE is yet to tell us.
 
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