Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Marvin said:
But those adults who are unvaccinated are unlikely now to get vaccinated.

A 3rd dose of the current vaccines is likely to stop transmission at least I hope that will be confirmed next week.
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Agreed, but that shouldn’t mean we start giving kids vaccines they don’t need. There needs to be a way of persuading at least some of those adults to get it, no idea how though.
 
Marvin said:
According to press reports, that's because of their remit.

Meanwhile the rest of the world, particularly in Europe, the Far East and South America are catching up with the UK in terms of vaccination and in some cases overtaking us. We need to organise the booster jabs and vaccination for > 12 year olds asap.

Boosters, if they are as effective as claimed, could have a very significant impact in the population who receive them. I am very keen to get a 3rd jab, and for my elderly parents to get them too. That way, I can forget about Covid as a personal risk for months to come, and get through this Winter doing normal things.

If we don't proceed with the next obvious stages in vaccination then the situation will deteriorate gradually. We all know this which is presumably why it will happen only we are falling behind the curve now

View attachment 25775

That chart is a proxy for advanced societies and it is noticeable that USA, the UK and Germany are not doing so well.
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Your point about forgetting personal risk after "booster" jab is so valid.

I had my second Pfizer jab 5 or more months ago and was starting to worry about the reported reduced effectiveness after 6 months.
Luckily Spain recognizes this and I got my "booster" jab yesterday as part of their over 60 s program.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Agreed, but that shouldn’t mean we start giving kids vaccines they don’t need. There needs to be a way of persuading at least some of those adults to get it, no idea how though.
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Do you think the kids are likely to be spreaders especially to their own families or are they already protected?
 
SilverFox2 said:
Do you think the kids are likely to be spreaders especially to their own families or are they already protected?
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Isn’t everyone a spreader? Pretty sure kids aren’t the ones causing thousands of cases as festivals etc. If their families are vaccinated then that’s as good as we are getting.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I think it's very likely to be overturned, in scientists I include medical scientists, and medics opinion seems to me to be the same, worldwide.

I'd like to see a full benefit risk analysis, and a definition of "marginal".

The JCVI seem to be a clear outlier to other medical and scientific opinion and analysis.
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It's looking like the government will try and force this through on public health grounds.
Great benefit to the rest of society but probably not to non vulnerable children.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
Not really a matter of right or wrong IMO, rather risk.

If a couple of people race round the M60, we don't conclude they were right to do it if no-one dies, we think they're taking an unreasonable risk.

There's a risk of significant injury, death and societal disruption from COVID this winter. We should be reducing that risk IMO, though there's a chance everything may turn out OK regardless.
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I realise that it is a tight call and that by right or wrong I meant the view of the poster I was replying to that I was over reacting by saying the choice should be with the family and the schoolchild to have or not have based on the recommendation given.

It has always been my view that vaccinations should not be compulsory. But advised if thought helpful.

The decision here appears to be just not to even offer it. Which is what I meant was wrong.

Parents and their child should determine their own balance of risk based on family circumstances - from the health of their child, the importance of wanting to keep working at school this Winter and the risk of others in their family they might mix with in coming months if they catch it.

That is all I was arguing really.

And it will be seen right or wrong IF those countries who do it fare better this winter than those who do not.

It could go either way or there be no difference if it really is that marginal. But I do think families deserve the option as some of those age group will be in a critical year at school that will impact their entire life if it is disrupted by multiple restrictions on learning this Winter.

If being jabbed means they can work on when others are sent home it will be worth it for that reason alone.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Isn’t everyone a spreader? Pretty sure kids aren’t the ones causing thousands of cases as festivals etc. If their families are vaccinated then that’s as good as we are getting.
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Teenagers have been one of the biggest spreading groups from Delta. Far more of them are catching it now than pensioners. And some do die. Two under the age of 19 did on Thursday just in England.
 
Latest age ranges of those catching it in the NW on 29 Aug.

Rate is cases per 100,000 people.

Age 0 - 4 rate 138

Age 5 -9 rate 251

Age 10 - 14 rate 413

Age 15 - 19 rate 483

15 - 19 is the highest rate in the NW in any age group 0 - 90 +

No age group over 70 is higher than 169 and everyone over 80 has a lower rate than any of these children.

This is pretty much the picture everywhere and has been all Summer.
 
BlueAnorak said:
It's looking like the government will try and force this through on public health grounds.
Great benefit to the rest of society but no to non vulnerable children.
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The benefit they get is there is less chance of their parents and elderly relatives getting sick and/or passing away from it and infections reduce meaning there is less disruption to their schooling.
The above has a positive impact on our children’s mental health.
 
The equivalent numbers for Stockport - the current problem area in GM is:

Age 0 - 4 rate 189 V 138 NW

Age 5 -9 rate 299 V 251 NW

Age 10 - 14 rate 489 V 413 NW

Age 15 - 19 rate 627 V 483 NW

Only 20 - 24 at 662 is higher.

Every other age group in Stockport is below the numbers for the age group being considered for vaccination now.

Aside from 65 - 69 - which has the lowest rate in Stockport at 105 - all the other ages 70 plus are higher than the NW average but still below all the children rates above.

The highest is 167.

In other words this data suggests 15 - 19 year olds are catching Covid 4 times as much as those over 65.

As you see the 15 - 19 age is a major group driving the high numbers in Stockport right now.
 
Healdplace said:
The equivalent numbers for Stockport - the current problem area in GM is:

Age 0 - 4 rate 189 V 138 NW

Age 5 -9 rate 299 V 251 NW

Age 10 - 14 rate 489 V 413 NW

Age 15 - 19 rate 627 V 483 NW

Only 20 - 24 at 662 is higher.

Every other age group in Stockport is below the numbers for the age group being considered for vaccination now.

Aside from 65 - 69 - which has the lowest rate in Stockport at 105 - all the other ages 70 plus are higher than the NW average but still below all the children rates above.

The highest is 167.

In other words this data suggests 15 - 19 year olds are catching Covid 4 times as much as those over 65.

As you see the 15 - 19 age is a major group driving the high numbers in Stockport right now.
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16-19 year olds can get vaccinated.
 
ZOE APP NEWS

The numbers both FALL for the first time recently. Quite a surprise.


Predicted cases DOWN 2617 - biggest fall in some time - to 52, 177

Ongoing symptomatic cases also fall for first time in a while.

From 741, 152 to 737, 093
 
ZOE APP DATA

REGIONS:-


North West FALLS a lot again to 719 / 945 FROM 786 / 1033

NW down into FIFTH place - behind N Ireland (Top), Scotland (now Second highest in UK), Yorkshire (third) and Wales (fourth).



N Ireland also falls big - despite being top - on 668 / 1661 FROM 768 / 1867 AND 858 / 2021 over past two days alone.

Scotland in second SADLY is UP - on 852 / 1145 FROM 815 / 1110


Yorkshire DOWN only very slightly on 835 / 1119 FROM 837 / 1126

AND WALES above NW - all bit standing still on 756 / 1097 FROM 757 / 1099 - now well ahead of the NW.



London still falling on 586 / 752 FROM 624 / 798 .

Only East England is lower now in UK on DOWN too on 552 / / 725 FROM 589 / 771.

South East has also now FALLEN into the lowest watch zone with these too on 615 / 745 FROM 663 / 798.

AND

West Midlands also today drops from the middle to the lowest watch zone on 607 / 857
 
The Northern Baptist said:
We’ll be vaccinating 12-15 year olds, and id say it starts as soon as next week. the decision will be made based on the ‘wider benefits’ of vaccinating children.
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Highly probable but it is ethically dubious.
Personally I think it should be done but I don't have to follow the Hipocratic oath.
 
ZOE APP DATA

GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Surprise new leader in GM - Oldham! Hopefully this is a data error as it looks a sudden huge jump from best to worst, So rather suspicious of a glitch.

Oldham now on 20, 322 FROM 8256. Very hard to understand this Zoe data leaping this much in a day.

Stockport is DOWN again on 17, 678 FROM 19, 213 - but still next worst in GM as other boroughs fall today too.

Wigan in third is on 16, 421 FROM 18, 460.

Bolton jumps up to fourth on 13, 059 FROM 11, 576

Trafford fall - DOWN by the most today onto 12, 626 FROM 18, 800

Manchester is a surprise going UP into the higher watch zone on 11, 940 FROM 8236.

Salford also up just a tad on 10, 970 FROM 10, 924



So only three boroughs now left in the lowest watch zone:

Bury falls continue onto 9017 FROM 11, 868

Tameside UP on 7929 FROM 6974 - though I suspect it is actually well up on these numbers gven its worst in GM data per population right now.

And top of the tree now is:-

Rochdale DOWN on 5921 FROM 7568






West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan FALLS again today on 32, 344 FROM 37, 798.

The near perpetual high scorers in past 3 months - like Chorley and Preston - are down but still atound 20K above most in GM. But also down today.


The numbers in the western part of the NW is why GM is faring relatively well and outperforming v the NW as a region at the moment.

Liverpool DOWN on 11, 478 (from 12, 517)

BUT St Helens shoots up to 32, 085 (FROM 26, 498 - now only just second highest in NW behind West Lancashire ad coud be THE big problem alone tomorrow if trends continue).

These areas are creating the most cases currently in this western part of the region.

Cheshire East - which Andy Hinch will be delighted to hear has utterly broken the usual link with Stockport and been plummeting. Is more or less flat on 7190 FROM 7198.
 
If the JCVI/SAGE dither with the 3rd booster decision, could you have it done privately, or are all vaccines still going through the NHS only?

If hardly anyone is getting vaccinated now, surely there’s a surplus of vaccines that need to be used?
 
Interesting discussion in the Netherlands over whether a hospital in Arnhem can use only vaccinated staff to treat critical patients. Hospital points out that many patients are shying away from hospital for fear of being treated by unvaccinated staff. In turn, that decision places the unvaccinated staff in a difficult position vis-à-vis their employment rights.
 
Went for a test yesterday afternoon because I had a bit of a cough the last few days and felt tired and going back to the office on Monday. Got the results back at 11pm last night. Was impressed at how quick it was, and luckily came back negative
 
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