Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Bigga]

I think us and Norwich have had the highest number of players who have been known to have caught Covid. Wonder how many players and backroom staff have been jabbed.

That would be interesting data, indeed.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

a reason to dismiss natural immunity.

Of course we should dismiss "natural immunity" as a first line defence.

That's because it involves having a potentially very serious illness and passing it on to others.

Whereas if vaccinated, if you catch it it will be much less serious *and* less likely to transmit to others.

That's not the same as denying it is effective against reinfection. It is.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE SUMMARY TODAY



PREDICTED CASES - Very flat really ON 69, 860 FROM 69, 845 - UP just 15 on yesterday after a fall of just 1

ONGOING INFECTIONS - 953, 434 - UP FROM 948, 044 - UP by 5390 after rise of 5673 yesterday.

More importantly the day to day rise in ongoing infections has now fallen for 9 days - it was up day to day 15, 582 a week ago and has dropped every day since to rises of 7215, 5673 and now another small drop today of 5390,

Today week to week it us up from 892, 007 last Tuesday - a weekly rise of 61,427.

A week ago the week to week rise was over 100K. So the trend looks positive.

Ongoing case numbers will lag daily cases as if you catch Covid you will be a Covid case for a week or two.


Trends are all we can really read into the constantly tweaked data on Zoe these days,

These show in the UK region worst to best case numbers table that:

WALES stays the worst region, and sadly NORTH WEST RISING UP to second worst today.

THIS IS THE WORST NORTH WEST HAS BEEN IN WEEKS AND IT COUD EASILY SOON BE TOP


EAST MIDLANDS now third. But WEST MIDLANDS & YORKSHIRE AND NORTH EAST in 4th. 5th amd 6th. Though NE is well behind the others.

THIS IS THE ENTIRE TOP TIER WATCH ZONE

Current TOP THREE NUMBERS:-

WALES DOWN ON 1107 / 1547 FROM 1152 / 1602

NORTH WEST SADLY STILL GOING UP A LITTLE ON 1150 / 1479 FROM 1121 / 1446

EAST MIDLANDS UP ON 1120 / 1490 FROM 1103 / 1471. all three much closer than they were. And NORTH WEST could easily become worst region in UK any day sadly.

And SCOTLAND remains clearly the best - and the only one in the LOWEST watch zone well below ALL the southern regions that are all in the middle zone - DOWN too on 550 / 625 FROM 560 / 838



NORTHERN IRELAND and all the southern regions form the middle watch zone.




In the NW they have both Liverpool down in 13K and ]St Helens below 10K ~

BUT Warrington now well above it on 17K and highest in that area.
~
HOWEVER - THE BIG PROBLEM IS ONE THAT HAS BEEN COMING SINCE THEY SWITCHED ON THE ILLUMINATIONS

The Fylde and Blackpool area is now the highest in the North West - possibly the entire UK - as I warned it might become last week but not expecting it to do a Trafford.

On Zoe it has - now more than TRIPLED over the past ten days and the BIGGEST score in the North West (and possibly England) up in rising numbers daily from 36 K yesterday to 41, 656 - highest numbers I have seen in some time.

You will notice Blackpool deaths have started to appear often in te numbers too, Just as the Morecambe ones (4 today) have come from when that part of North Lancashire was up to high numbers in past month but less than where the Fylde now is - indeed Lancaster/Morecambe is still very high on over 26K.



Cheshire East FALLS for third day running after several weeks of rises (on 17, 296 from 18, 321 FROM 19, 297 v Cheshire West UP on 17, 098 - closest they have been lately. Indeed Cheshire East if they keep falling is VERY close to being below Stockport for first time in over a month.

As for GM - Not a good day for Stockport - up the most of all boroughs as the others above it fall, The order according to Zoe with to nearest K numbers is:-

Tameside DOWN to 29K, Trafford DOWN to 25K. Stockport after 4 smaller rises up most of all boroughs to 16K. With Manchester and Salford almost identical and just under here at 15K. Bolton UP to 14K. Its highest in a while after steady rises. Wigan rises also to 12K. Bury though is up again into the higher watch zone of 11K after climbing day by day in past week. Oldham has fallen over 5 days to half what it was and now just over 10K, However, Rochdale falls even more and is currently the only occupant of the lowest watch zone on just 7K - well clear of the rest.

 

[Delboy352]

Here’s my two penneth, fwiw…

The vaccine doesn’t prevent you getting COVID, what it does is mitigate the effects, therefore reducing the impact and lessening the likelihood you will need to go to hospital with severe symptoms though not everyone is the same and some are more impacted by the virus than others.

When it comes to the death figures, if COVID is mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, it is counted as a COVID death, even if it is a secondary cause of death, therefore someone could die from a heart attack/dementia etc but as I say, it will still be recorded as a COVID related death if it is mentioned anywhere on the death certificate.

Statistics can be interpreted any which way, but I really wish they would break them down stating:-

1. Number of deaths where the person has had both jabs
2. Number of deaths where the person has had 1 jab
3. Number of deaths where the person has had 0 jabs

also:-

1. Number of people in hospital where the person has had 2 jabs
2. Number of people in hospital where the person has had 1 jab
3. Number of people in hospital where the person has had 0 jabs

This would give a much truer picture of the state of affairs instead of clumping them all together and may focus more minds on the only way out of this pandemic, which is by vaccination. Not by Country, but by the world. Until this issue has been resolved, you can expect more variants to surface and the vaccines will have to be tweaked to answer this. This is what happens every year to the flu vaccine that is annually given.

Though we may now be getting on for 2 years since this horrific pandemic began, it doesn’t mean that it’s any less deadly, it’s just that we are better at treating the symptoms and we have vaccines to mitigate the worst of it.

Lastly, don’t think of yourself when it comes to choosing whether to have the vaccine, think of those who you may come into contact with, who may then contract it from yourself.

 

[bluemc1]

Of course we should dismiss "natural immunity" as a first line defence.

That's because it involves having a potentially very serious illness and passing it on to others.

Whereas if vaccinated, if you catch it it will be much less serious *and* less likely to transmit to others.

That's not the same as denying it is effective against reinfection. It is.

Just as likely to spread it once infected

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

27 deaths - was 21 last week

1908 cases - was 2056 last week

10.5% positivity - was 10.3% last week

935 patients - UP 2 on yesterday - was 998 last week

Ventilated icu 51 - down 5 on yesterday - was 65 last week


SO ZOE IS RIGHT ABOUT SCOTLAND HAVING THE BEST NUMBERS IN THE UK RIGHT NOW

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA
UNFORTUNATELY NOT GOING WELL HERE EITHER

6 deaths - was 3 last week

1278 cases - was 1209 last week

7.6% positivity - was 6.1% last week

7 DAY CASES TOTAL 8802 - WAS 8907 YESTERDAY & 7700 LAST WEEK

69 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 69 YESTERDAY - WAS 64 LAST WEEK

THESE NUMBERS AND RISING DEATH NUMBERS AND THE INCREASE IN CASES OF THOSE OVER 80 ARE ALL CONNECTED

WE NEED MUCH MORE OF A DEBATE ON THE CARE HOME SITUATION AS THISW COUKD GET VERY SERIOUS OVER THE WITER ACROSS THE UK AGAIN IF WE SLEEPWALK INTO IT

 

[grunge]

Just as likely to spread it once infected

the point your missing is your far less likely to catch it if vaccinated. breakthrough infections do happen and when they do you can spread it. but reports vary between 3 and 10 times less likely to catch it once vaccinated. also if you get it and are asymptomatic ( which 80% of vaccinated cases are ) your less infectious than if your symptomatic.

Thats a massive reduction in R0

 

[bluemc1]

the point your missing is your far less likely to catch it if vaccinated. breakthrough infections do happen and when they do you can spread it. but reports vary between 3 and 10 times less likely to catch it once vaccinated. also if you get it and are asymptomatic ( which 80% of vaccinated cases are ) your less infectious than if your symptomatic.

Thats a massive reduction in R0

from the amount of people I’m meeting and the people I’m reading on here being double jabbed is having virtually no effect in preventing infection

I also think ( though not certain ) I’ve seen asymptomatic spread has never been a thing which also would go against what we were originally told

 

[Healdplace]

So the total deaths with out of hospital England to add is today:- 160

This time last week it was 152

That became 166 last week when 14 out of hospital deaths in England (total for England was 140) were added.