Coronavirus (2021) thread

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grunge said:
As posted above. there are plenty or reports. they could well be wrong but they are there.
www.bloomberg.com

Deaths Data Shows 80% of South Africans May Have Had Covid

As many as four out of five South Africans may have contracted the coronavirus, indicating that the country may be one of the world’s hardest-hit nations by the disease, the chief actuary at Africa’s biggest health insurer said.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com



Either ways. we'll know soon enough if the vaccines still work.
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Interesting piece from that article:

The Eastern Cape, where 91.1% of the population was thought to have been infected, was the worst-hit province, and Gauteng, at 43.4%, and North West, at 35%, the least-affected.

Isn't Gauteng currently the province with by far the most Omicron infections?
 
JamesMCFC said:
If it is, maybe the virus could be getting less deadly as it's trying to survive
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Evolutionary pressure is on transmission and immune escape. Any effect on severity is just a byproduct, and could go either way. The effect would be real if the infection were so deadly it killed most hosts, but that's not the case here.

See for instance

Redirect Notice

www.google.com
 
grunge said:
As posted above. there are plenty or reports. they could well be wrong but they are there.
www.bloomberg.com

Deaths Data Shows 80% of South Africans May Have Had Covid

As many as four out of five South Africans may have contracted the coronavirus, indicating that the country may be one of the world’s hardest-hit nations by the disease, the chief actuary at Africa’s biggest health insurer said.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com



Either ways. we'll know soon enough if the vaccines still work.
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They all come from an insurance company estimate, it assumes 90% of excess deaths are COVID and compares data to the UK. I would expect mortality to be higher in SA than the UK as over half the population are poorer, and the assumption that 90% of excess deaths are COVID is at it states. It is a theory but they don't have the data that the UK has and are filling in gaps.
 
Gabriel said:
Where did you see that?

I've only read about the increased risk of reinfection but no correlation with mild symptoms or hospitalization yet.

https://www.reuters.com/world/afric...d-higher-risk-reinfection-omicron-2021-12-02/
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That's the massive Omnicron R0 in action
Delta R0 is 5 unajusted multiplying factors of 1, 5, 25, 125, 625 as each generation of infection takes place...
Omni R0 is around 11 so that would be
1, 11, 55, 605, 6605
A huge difference after 5 generations
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Evolutionary pressure is on transmission and immune escape. Any effect on severity is just a byproduct, and could go either way. The effect would be real if the infection were so deadly it killed most hosts, but that's not the case here.

See for instance

Redirect Notice

www.google.com
Click to expand...

Ah ok thank you!
 
JamesMCFC said:
Probably a really stupid question but from what I understand, the more infectious a virus is the less deadly it is? I'm sure I've read that somewhere before not sure if it's true.

If it is, maybe the virus could be getting less deadly as it's trying to survive?
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Usually things tend to where they need to be, so a super transmittable virus over many years and many evolutions should be limited in how deadly it is.

However, on a case by case, mutation by mutation basis, there are no guarantees that a virus will change in potency in any particular way.
 
Gabriel said:
R rate appears to be the highest it has been in South Africa.

"The reproductive number rose to 2.33 in Gauteng, Michelle Groome, head of health surveillance for the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, said on an online presentation on Friday. That means each infected person on average infects another 2.33."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-rate-measure-at-record-in-s-africa-epicenter
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Not quite true. Many thousands are getting a headache and a runny nose for a few days. You only get tested if you're not well (showing more symptoms than that) and you only get hospitalised if you're very ill etc.
It is looking like 2.5 times more infectious than Delta in SA.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Well the fatality rate is incredibly low then, which would raise the question why we are bothering with restrictions at all when it is such a mild virus.
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The average life span is 64.13 years in SA so the most vulnerable in the human population just aren't alive to infect.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
Evolutionary pressure is on transmission and immune escape. Any effect on severity is just a byproduct, and could go either way. The effect would be real if the infection were so deadly it killed most hosts, but that's not the case here.

See for instance

Redirect Notice

www.google.com
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Not true - viruses are MORE LIKELY to become more infectious and less virulent immediatrly after crossing species barriers. Killing the host is simply not a good evolutionary practice.
Once established in a species then what you say is true.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Not true - viruses are MORE LIKELY to become more infectious and less virulent immediatrly after crossing species barriers. Killing the host is simply not a good evolutionary practice.
Once established in a species then what you say is true.
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I think we agree - as I said, this only applies if the fatality rate is high enough to matter, which isn't the case here.
 
Corky said:
They all come from an insurance company estimate, it assumes 90% of excess deaths are COVID and compares data to the UK. I would expect mortality to be higher in SA than the UK as over half the population are poorer, and the assumption that 90% of excess deaths are COVID is at it states. It is a theory but they don't have the data that the UK has and are filling in gaps.
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there are some CDC papers but its complex to read so not had chance to dig into it.

Yeah there has been some guess work but a lot of papers come from blood donors etc. there is certainly data suggesting quite a high percentage had it.

Either ways. they have delta and have not had a spike like this one, and there are real world studies saying it breaking through prior infection in a significant way.

Data on Vaccines will arrive soon enough.
 
grunge said:
There could be a million and one reasons why the count is lower there, less health care meaning not as many people being older and having co morbidities as they are already dead from them for example, lack of tracking in some areas etc, lots of people dont even know the procedures for registering a death over there so there could be lots of unregistered deaths.


do some digging for yourself and see if you can find out why SA deaths look lower.
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With a reported IFR of 1% in the unvaccinated, there would be 600,000 deaths, it just doesn’t add up I’m afraid.
 
True_Blue69 said:
With a reported IFR of 1% in the unvaccinated, there would be 600,000 deaths, it just doesn’t add up I’m afraid.
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What ev's. as I said there are lots of reasons. One key one could be Average age of SA is 27 for example. population over 40 drops off quicky.

www.statista.com

Population in South Africa, by age group 2024| Statista

As of 2024, South Africa's population increased, counting approximately 63 million inhabitants.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

But all in all, Im really not invested enough to care to dig it all out for you. there are scientific reports saying they have a high Seroprevalence, If you dont want to believe them so be it.

and Yesterday reports coming out SA are saying a significant breakthrough of previous infection <-- this is the only thing that really matters here. and if it breaks vaccine immunity will be the next big question to answer and we'll know soon enough.
 
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