Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Gabriel said:
Will people still go for boosters when they read that protection wanes so quickly?
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If they do not they are fools. GIven the facts we had on Omicron's evasion ability and that Israel are already starting a fourth dose roll out it was obvious this would be true. We will be giving a fourth jab to the over 80s by the end of January. Which looks about when it will be needed. Though Omicron may have blazed through the UK by then.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Everyone should try and catch it, end of covid then
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Would it though? Plenty have had it more than once. How do those shielding catch it safely to end the pandemic not risk themselves? What if another variant arrives next year that has another trick to reinfect?

It will be a major factor in building immunity that so many WILL without trying given Omicron but you cannot strategise catching it and hoping for the best.

But it may by chance be a big kick in that direction I agree.

My brother said much the same to me today. Christmas will see it happen no doubt by accident. But I do not think we should try it as thats a bit like curing your fear of heights by climbing up Blackpool Tower without a rope.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Everyone should try and catch it, end of covid then
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Isn't it safer to get a vaccine?

What happens by the way when another variant comes along. I've had the same thoughts as you, i.e. that omicron signals the beginning of the end but it only really ends when we get a vaccine that is targeted against the latest variants, and then it will be ongoing process.

We still have to get through this spike in cases too. Even though we know the virus to be generally milder, this is the hospital admissions for London. I want to see that turn decisively down, or the infection rate turn decisively down and that will be the signal that this wave is at its worse. I am optimistic like you but as you cam see from the graph below, for some people, infection ends up in hospital.

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Healdplace said:
Not if you live in Greater Manchester - it is going like London last week and some astounding numbers today. Pretty much every borough is through the roof.

The lowest Pop score today was up 127. Some are nearer 300. Never seen numbers like these before.

Wigan today would have been a pandemic high for Manchester just last week.

I know these are only cases and milder etc. But these are bound to create pressure on the NHS this next week or two. They are just goimg up and up and doubling exactly as they say every two or three days in Greater Manchester right now.

I suspect GM may even be the epicentre now not London.
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thats how pandemics spread tho isnt it. Areas get it then another area, early indications that cases are already falling in London?? Lets see how it pans out but it looks pretty positive to me.
 
We should keep an eye on what happens to somewhere like Wigan.

9 days ago it had 194 cases - 7 days ago 319 - today 815. This is what Omicron is doing.

It may be 2000 next week. Or 800. Or 300.

Will tell us a lot about the speed of track up and down.
 
Marvin said:
The booster gets us through this wave then we get another vaccine, and that one should be tailor-made for delta, omicron etc. And then we're in the same position as we are with flu. A nasty viral illness that we keep at bay with regular vaccination.
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Does that mean that another variant is less likely?
 
I think the hope is we will use vaccines to reach a natural accommodation with the virus that suits both needs by trial and error and by minimising infection through vaccination everywhere we minimise the risk of a more dangerous variant. But whilst we are getting there that will always be a risk as they appear by chance not some grand evil plan of Superbug. Or China. We do not need to see the variant that can win out over Omicron that is for sure. No idea what it would have to do to dominate that.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
thats how pandemics spread tho isnt it. Areas get it then another area, early indications that cases are already falling in London?? Lets see how it pans out but it looks pretty positive to me.
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Of course, and it will reach other regions at some time soon but it is Christmas weekend and just in time for Omicron to by chance reach peak in the North West and GM as its current doubling rapidly focus. It will really test how well the boosters protect the older generation who are with family this coming weekend.
 
Healdplace said:
I think the hope is we will use vaccines to reach a natural accommodation with the virus that suits both needs by trial and error and by minimising infection through vaccination everywhere we minimise the risk of a more dangerpus variant. But whilst we are getting there that will always be a risk as they appear by chance not some grand evil plan of Superbug. Or China.
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Spot on. I read an interesting article the other week about how, in the 1960s, the common cold was made up of 4 coronavirus. One of these coronavirus they managed to trace back to the Russian Flu pandemic of 1890 which killed a million people. They also stated that most/all pandemics that they have managed to trace back through viruses have occurred when they cross from animals into humans, usually with fatal consequences at the outset. Anyroad the upshot is that history shows us viruses mutate into less lethal variants and the logic makes sense. If a viruses kills you within a day it can’t travel (spread) very far, it mutates into killing you in a week it travels a little bit further but still not very far, mutates into a month, a little further until eventually it mutates into something largely non-fatal. I guess the main concerns are we can travel a lot more quickly now and will the vaccine cause it to mutate in less natural/predictable ways - the world is certainly learning a lot about these pandemics this time around which will hopefully stand future generations in good stead.
 
The hospital situation today is reasonably OK.

England patients up just 34 to 7114 - last Thursday it rose by 47 to 6405. So no big shft there.

Wednesday admissions (these are always 48 hours behind) were the highest in ages - 1098 - second day running over 1000 - up from 815 week before and 799 two weeks ago.

London had 307 of those - up 6 on the day and v just 199 the week before.

North West the second most - 186 - the highest in NW in months & and up 69 on the day beore. It was 109 last week. And 82 two weeks ago. So cases are translating into more patients as they have in London.

Patients today in London up 61 to 2097 - it was up 132 the day before and 637 up on last Thursday.

Patients today in North West up just 9 to 992 - it was up 74 the day before and up 144 on last Thursday.

So patients are risng in the two Omicron areas but not as yet at huge levels. About a third week to week in London and just under 20% in the NW.

But we are not yet sure of the lag. These numbers over the next week or two will be very telling.

Though data will be quite sparse because of the holiday weekend.
 
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