Coronavirus (2022) thread

Churchlawtonblue said:
The modelling stated it took account of the booster roll out.

I could have produced a report and filled it full of caveats and then said I was right. It still wouldn't mean I was.

Anyway I have wasted enough time on this subject, I feel some on here just argue for arguments sake which is pointless for all concerned. We will have to agree to disagree on the modelling.

You and others will no doubt be pleased to find that this will be my last post on covid forum. No doubt we will cross swords on other topics.
Have a good day Melton.
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It took account for the booster rollout at the time, not the accelerated version of it.

Im sure some are arguing for the sake of arguing (it is an Internet forum after all!), I have a slightly vested interested in it because the company I work for has been involved in the vaccine rollout since the beginning and we have some inputs into SAGE, albeit not on the modelling side of it though. As much as I will agree that there’s some aspects to the modelling that need a lot of work, I do think they’ve been misinterpreted a lot too and people seem to be taking just the models as the be all and end all of the discussions.

You’re perfectly entitled to your opinion with it and yours is probably closer to the consensus opinion nowadays than mine, not sure why you think I’d be pleased about you not commenting? It’s just a way of passing the time, thankfully I don’t think there is much need for most comments on this thread at the mo.
 
SWP's back said:
Because it was Omicron so of course it’s doing the heavy lifting in the sentence. It’s the whole point of the fucking sentence. IT WAS OMICRON. IT WAS NOT DELTA. South Africa already had a month of data on how severe (or should we say mild) it was. SAGE ignored that and lobbied for a lockdown before Christmas.

There’s literally no point talking about ‘what if it was a more severe strain’ as it was and there was data around showing that. Did you not post on this thread in November and December?
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Sage didn't lobby in any way though, not really, A couple ( at most ) of members on the SAGE panel suggested it. big difference.

And I think your underestimating how quickly this all happened. SA didn't have anything like a months worth of Data when some of SAGE were suggesting being careful at Christmas. The cases wave in SA didn't even start till 29th Nov, add the usual lags for hospitalisations and deaths then these sage members were making suggestions as the hospitalisation wave should have started to kick in over in SA.

At that point the only data out of SA was anecdotal ( albeit correct )
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
The modelling stated it took account of the booster roll out.

I could have produced a report and filled it full of caveats and then said I was right. It still wouldn't mean I was.

Anyway I have wasted enough time on this subject, I feel some on here just argue for arguments sake which is pointless for all concerned. We will have to agree to disagree on the modelling.

You and others will no doubt be pleased to find that this will be my last post on covid forum. No doubt we will cross swords on other topics.
Have a good day Melton.
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Sorry to hear about you departing this thread. You're right in all other respects. The models as produced in December were definately not worth the publication effort.
Let's have Denmark style modelling in future.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
So you’ve no problem with the modellers apart from with Omicron?

I don’t even know why we’re having this debate. It’s done with.

Maybe you should switch your ire to weather forecasters next time they predict 100mph winds and on.y 85mph ones arrive.
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Not even the modellers as they model what they’re told. My issue is whichever **** tried to wipe £3 trillion extra off the economy on shite variables/data and trying to convince the Govt to lockdown.

m But you’re right, it’s over. I didn’t start this particular argument anyway, I was only explaining why some people rightly say the models were well off.
 
SWP's back said:
Not even the modellers as they model what they’re told. My issue is whichever **** tried to wipe £3 trillion extra off the economy on shite variables/data and trying to convince the Govt to lockdown.

m But you’re right, it’s over. I didn’t start this particular argument anyway, I was only explaining why some people rightly say the models were well off.
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But weren’t used and seems an incredibly weird thing to get worked up over.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Sorry to hear about you departing this thread. You're right in all other respects. The models as produced in December were definately not worth the publication effort.
Let's have Denmark style modelling in future.
Click to expand...

Thankfully we had it this time too.
 
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