Coronavirus (2022) thread

[Indaparkside]

Thanks! I don't feel too bad in myself, which is why it caught me out tonight.

Hope your ok blue

 

[Blue and still suffering]

Hope your ok blue

Thanks

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital patients are stabilising it seems. Up today just 13 to 16,600. Though North West has the biggest increase -37 to 2501 V 2352 last week.

The week to week increase is now under 1000 for the first time since the second Omicron variant took hold.

Ventilators down 5 to 312 V 311 last week. North West down 3 on the week to 33

The southern regions mainly falling now in cases and North West is also now the highest scoring region on Zoe and above London on the recorded Gov UK daily cases too. 4527 today V 4325 London.

Zoe now clearly shows the wave having peaked 2 or 3 days ago.

And whilst NW is top on that with Yorkshire 2nd and West Midlamds third these are all falling well on Zoe day to day too now.

Greater Manchester though is doing a little less well than the western and northern areas of the region. But there are signs that is slowing too.

These are just delays caused by when cases peaked in a cascade effect so the NW & GM numbers - already well down - will soon fall in line with the southern regions that peaked first.

Hospital deaths in England are still edging up sadly 274 V 136 today - biggest week to week jump in 2022 - but they always lag cases and patients falling by a few days so hopefully we are near the peak here too.

The reason deaths are rising is the shift in age groups catching it. The over 70s are now clearly more vulnerable again and this is where the numbers are rising. If you have a relative hesitating over getting the over 75 fourth jab do try to persuade them. This is being offered for a valid reason as it is 6 months or so since rheir last jab.

We have to see if the third Omicron variant becomes a problem but for now we are on the downslope again.

 

[m7mcfc]

Is there a bad cold or flu going about as I must have it. Fully expected the tests I have done for Covid to be positive but all have been negative.

 

[Healdplace]

Just to update the TV news bulletins today that is only focusing on the Friday ONS survey of prevalence which is the most accurate BUT which tells you where we were a week ago remember. Not now.

Here is where we are now.

Cases definitely falling even with the fewer tests. Only deaths still rising slightly over 300 today again but will be near the peak. Likely next week for that.

England admissions to hospital (Wednesday) DOWN week to week for first time in second Omicron wave 2176 from 2255.

Patients also down on a Friday for the first time in a while. 16,366 - down 234 V 15,966 last week - only up 400 wk to wk - the gap has been falling for about a week now from closer to 2000 rise.

Most regions are falling - East by 106 today the most. The only region rising still is North West - up just 28.

NW was top on Zoe in past few days too but is now second and falling well a bit berhind the rest so seems to be last in last out as expected and will probably be falling too next week.

Ventilators on 315 - up 3 today V 311 last week These have slowed too and starting to trend down again

By next week looks likely all numbers will be going down including deaths unless the new Omicron variant has any serious impact. So far nopt apparent.

Looks like care home cases are falling now too which is the best news as a lot of the deaths are here.

Other home nations much the same - cases well down but as testing is a factor here much more importantly patients in hospital are too:

Wales 949 patients V 1031 last week - Ventilators 17 V 17

N Ireland 478 patients V 562 last week - Ventilators 2 V 3 Care Home Outbreaks 139 V 150

Scotland 2252 patients V 2385 last week - Ventilators 23 V 23 Care Home Outbreaks 324 V 325


Have a good weekend - unless you are a Liverpool fan.

 

[Indaparkside]

Just to update the TV news bulletins today that is only focusing on the Friday ONS survey of prevalence which is the most accurate BUT which tells you where we were a week ago remember. Not now.

Here is where we are now.

Cases definitely falling even with the fewer tests. Only deaths still rising slightly over 300 today again but will be near the peak. Likely next week for that.

England admissions to hospital (Wednesday) DOWN week to week for first time in second Omicron wave 2176 from 2255.

Patients also down on a Friday for the first time in a while. 16,366 - down 234 V 15,966 last week - only up 400 wk to wk - the gap has been falling for about a week now from closer to 2000 rise.

Most regions are falling - East by 106 today the most. The only region rising still is North West - up just 28.

NW was top on Zoe in past few days too but is now second and falling well a bit berhind the rest so seems to be last in last out as expected and will probably be falling too next week.

Ventilators on 315 - up 3 today V 311 last week These have slowed too and dstating to trend down again

By next week looks likely all numbers will be going down including deaths unless the new Omicron variant has any serious impact. So far nopt apparent.

Looks like care home cases are falling now too which is the best news as a lot of the deaths are here.

Other home nations much the same - cases well down but as testing is a factor here much more importantly patients in hospital are too:

Wales 949 patients V 1031 last week - Ventilators 17 V 17

N Ireland 478 patients V 562 last week - Ventilators 2 V 3 Care Home Outbreaks 139 V 150

Scotland 2252 patients V 2385 last week - Ventilators 23 V 23 Care Home Outbreaks 324 V 325

This is confusing Salford saying covid patients are rising not declining

 

[Healdplace]

This is confusing Salford saying covid patients are rising not declining

Why confusing?

As I said above the North West is the only region with patients still rising but less than they were a few days ago. Modestly and so will likely be falling next week.

The southern regions rose first, have peaked and are falling.

More falling than rising so the overall trend is down.

 

[Healdplace]

I should add Greater Manchester is like other parts of the NW up on other regions. But is falling week to week quite notably.

1251 today V 2505 last Friday - out of 4029 cases in the North West today V 7453 last Friday

Salford today had 124 V 241 last Friday. Wigan 136 V 278 last Friday

Those high cases last Friday in the two areas your tweet mentions are likely the ones that created the patients over the past few days.

But there are fewer now V then so it will translate into fewer admissions next week.

 

[shemnel]

Just had a really weird conversation with a guy in the pub who believes everyone who needed to die should have died and that the vaccine did precisely zero

I mean he was quite intelligent with the other topics we talked about but covid seemed to be a real blind rage point for him. It was a very strange experience.

 

[Healdplace]

Just had a really weird conversation with a guy in the pub who believes everyone who needed to die should have died and that the vaccine did precisely zero

I mean he was quite intelligent with the other topics we talked about but covid seemed to be a real blind rage point for him. It was a very strange experience.

What he possibly meant is that Covid took the most lives in the old and vulnerable - especially before we had any real defences.

But our actions (hand washing, masks, isolating at signs of infection etc) also suppressed other things that would possibly have triggered underlying conditions such as flu which every year in winter kills many of these same cohort of people - but flu was suppressedhugely by the precautions we took around Covid and the wider vaccination programme for flu lowering the age that it was made free.

So the overall numbers who died ascribed to Covid might literally be true but are exaggerated by the numbers who had other things complicating their death or even primarily causing it WITH Covid and it is likely some would have died any way without Covid.

Obviously Covid enhanced these numbers and it is wrong if they think otherwise but when the overall balance around the world is tallied there will be no doubt there was a real pandemic and people died who would not have done without it but the actual numbers will on balance not be as large in real terms as they will currently appear.

But it will be a while before we get to the point of working that out and it is not wise to dismiss the reality that this has been the most serious global pandemic in a century and also foolhardy to say the vaccines have not made a huge difference.THey very obviously work better than we ever hoped. Without them the death toll would be far higher than it has been.

You only have to look at the cases across Winter 2020/21 V Winter 2021/22.

Pre vaccines the cases were a lot fewer (though testing was a factor in that as it was more limited) but serious cases and deaths (as shown by those needing icu and ventilation) much higher - whereas in the winter just gone cases were and even a week ago were still at a record high - 5 million people out of the 67 million in the UK had Covid. Double the previous Winter.

But the consequences of that number with Covid were massively reduced. Far fewer in hospital out of far more with Covid at any one time.

There are only limited possible ways to explain that - all of which likely are factors.

Firstly, the vaccines 100% do work to reduce severity if you catch Covid. All the evidence proves it. Denying that means they have just not read the evidence. The unvaccinated proportion who died rose and the vaccinated one fell, That alone can only be explained one way.

Secondly, humans have built up immunity from coming into contact often more than once with the virus as it is so transnmissable and you can catch it more than once which was not clerar at the start. But to get there it has sacrificed deadliness a bit to survive by becoming more highly infectious as a priority to get around human resistance - another sign the vaccines worked) - but making it harder for it to be more dangerous bar a variant that by chance sneaks through in a way we have not encountered yet.

Thirdly a liot of the people most vulnerable to Covid for reasons of age, underlying conditions or ill health in general will have succumbed now and so the target population who might become very sick is reduced. Not zero as we are still seeing deaths and new people become vulnerable severy year.

We are not out of this and likely never will be entirely free of the risk of a freak deadly variant that will require new tweaks to vaccine and another lockdown. But we have the time now to be prepared that we did not have in early 2020 when we wewre talking days to act not months.

And time to vaccinate the planet which we are still very slow at doing and from where it is most likely a worrying new variant of concern might spring up if cases are still widespread as we saw with Omicron.