Coronavirus (2022) thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
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Vic said:
Well, you'd think that logically the worst case was very unlikely, given the alternative options of bad case, medium case, good case, best case.
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Talk about missing the point. None of us need a Guardian article to tell us that the experts feel the worst case scenario is unlikely to happen. Anyone who has been switched on to the info coming out of South Africa could’ve told the experts and The Guardian that 6 weeks ago, yet it takes The Guardian until now to run the story. Like pretty much every other British media outlet, they’ve been utter cunts throughout this entire pandemic and way out of date to boot. They, along with all the other media outlets, could’ve done a lot worse than running articles based on the excellent updates @Healdplace posts in here every day.
 
Today's Zoe App graph covering the last three months showing the continuing drop in reports to the App is still ongoing here just as in the UK official data and has been for about 5 days. Predicted daily UK cases have fallen in the past week from 201,013 to 155,752 today. And ongoing symptomatic cases from what seems the wave's peak on 11 January at 2,743,863 to 2,617,137 today - a fall of 126,726 over those days. The fall each day has been increasing. It was over 40,000 today on yesterday.
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M18CTID said:
Talk about missing the point. None of us need a Guardian article to tell us that the experts feel the worst case scenario is unlikely to happen. Anyone who has been switched on to the info coming out of South Africa could’ve told the experts and The Guardian that 6 weeks ago, yet it takes The Guardian until now to run the story. Like pretty much every other British media outlet, they’ve been utter cunts throughout this entire pandemic and way out of date to boot. They, along with all the other media outlets, could’ve done a lot worse than running articles based on the excellent updates @Healdplace posts in here every day.
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Thank you for those kind words. Though I should note that I do have lots of time on my hands allowing me to do this and journalists are on deadlines with no doubt many other committments. So they likely just report the data presented to them without much opportunity to collate and track it themselves.

So I have had advantages which they very probably do not. And which I would not have had either if this had happened a couple of years before Covid hit.
 
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Hospital admissions never really got above 2000 in England, SAGE's best case predictions, sorry they call them scenarios now, in Mid Dec for the continuation of Plan B in England was 3000 to 10000 admissions a day in mid Jan I believe. Way off again. They rubbished the data from SA and got their modelling all wrong again. Luckily for the rest of us. No fan of this government but this is the one thing they have definitely got right, ignoring the bumbling modellers yet again.
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
Hospital admissions never really got above 2000 in England, SAGE's best case predictions, sorry they call them scenarios now, in Mid Dec for the contintution of Plan B in England was 3000 to 10000 admissions a day in mid Jan I believe. Way off again. They rubbished the data from SA and got their modelling all wrong again. Luckily for the rest of us. No fan of of this government but this is the one thing they have definitely got right, ignoring the bumbling modellers yet again.
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Dr jenny harries on the 15th December..omicron the most significant threat since the start of the pandemic..where are you jenny where are you let's be having you..
 
Analogy (as posted previously on other thread):

If you decide not to pack an emergency chute and your sky dive ends safely nonetheless, does that vindicate the lack of emergency chute, or was it reckless?

Observations:

1) the stuff about ignoring SA was, and remains bollocks. I've posted links repeatedly here from SA scientists and UK showing it. Repeating a false narrative does not make it true.

2) 30 NHS trusts have triggered critical incidents.

3) If you find yourself of the opinion that you know better than all the experts, you're either a genius or you've not understood the subject. The latter, I humbly suggest, might be more likely.

Regardless, the track of the disease is very positive right now. Long may it remain so.
 
England hospital numbers today are up for the first time in 6 days. But only by 91 to 16,372.

Indeed it is actually down week to week - from 16,399 last Sunday - the first such weekly fall since Omicron arrived.

And almost all of the daily rise was in Yorkshire and the North East region - up 88 of that 91

North East is the last region where Omicron took off according to the Zoe data and was the only one rising yesterday on the Zoe numbers - though today it is falling as are all the other 11 UK regions on Zoe.

North West actually fell by 43 patients today.

The latest admissions from Friday (these are always two days older than the other data) are down on 1692 V 1772 the previous Friday. North West on 268 V 330 the Friday before

Ventilators are up today though by 11 to 619. Most of the rise in London and NE & Yorkshire.

North West is on 74. Similar to the numbers it had in mid June last year.

All in all another good day for the numbers today.
 
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Lots of great contributions to this thread (particularly from Healdplace). The only person I can recall being spot on, all the time they posted, was the ICU Consultant.

i am not too bothered about SAGE overstating the risks as the pandemic wore on because there had been far too much complacency t the start that resulted in tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Our lack of workforce capacity and hospital beds meant we have very little wriggle room and we were helped helped by a mild winter (so far) that meant we could handle, in the main, the rapidly spreading but milder Omicron variant.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Lots of great contributions to this thread (particularly from Healdplace). The only person I can recall being spot on, all the time they posted, was the ICU Consultant.

i am not too bothered about SAGE overstating the risks as the pandemic wore on because there had been far too much complacency t the start that resulted in tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.
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Thank you Mr epidemiologist your input has been most refreshing













:)
 
Healdplace said:
Usually in a situation like this the only people who are right all the time are those who can see the future or those who remember the past differently from everyone else.
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FWIW, I fell for the Government’s patter at the start that herd immunity (without vaccination) wasn’t the primary strategy.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Lots of great contributions to this thread (particularly from Healdplace). The only person I can recall being spot on, all the time they posted, was the ICU Consultant.

i am not too bothered about SAGE overstating the risks as the pandemic wore on because there had been far too much complacency t the start that resulted in tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Our lack of workforce capacity and hospital beds meant we have very little wriggle room and we were helped helped by a mild winter (so far) that meant we could handle, in the main, the rapidly spreading but milder Omicron variant.
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Well said, lots of great contributions especially from Healdplace.

I mentioned the SAGE modelling as im just staggered that they get it wrong so often and continue to get it wrong. Remember the figures I quoted were their best case scenario. The others were far more calamitous.

I reserve my criticism only for the modellers, the science behind the vaccines has without a doubt been amazing and those involved deserve all the plaudits they get.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Analogy (as posted previously on other thread):

If you decide not to pack an emergency chute and your sky dive ends safely nonetheless, does that vindicate the lack of emergency chute, or was it reckless?

Observations:

1) the stuff about ignoring SA was, and remains bollocks. I've posted links repeatedly here from SA scientists and UK showing it. Repeating a false narrative does not make it true.

2) 30 NHS trusts have triggered critical incidents.

3) If you find yourself of the opinion that you know better than all the experts, you're either a genius or you've not understood the subject. The latter, I humbly suggest, might be more likely.

Regardless, the track of the disease is very positive right now. Long may it remain so.
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1. Give over. The UK modelling was so wrong - 6,000 to 10,000 hospitalisations a day. Actual worst numbers around 2500. I can't recall a figure worse than 2,450. At least 45% of these were admitted for another reason but tested positive after admittal
2. Staff off sick. Bad, but our hospitals were not overloaded with patients.
3. I believe the data - which is clear for both SA and the UK - way lower in virullence than the Private Frazer predictions from SAGE modellers before Christmas.

The modelling has actually improved this time round, but only for infection rates. Virullence is just way off.
 
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