Coronavirus (2022) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

We've known this for the longest time hence the Great Barrington declaration calling for the more nuanced approach of 'focused protection'. These people were roundly mocked and labelled 'fringe' by the lockdown enthusiasts, the three main authors being from Stanford, Harvard and Oxford universities.

The GBD was sponsored by a right wing American thinktank, the AIER.

It's a political document, not scientific or medical, and universally regarded as a fantasy by public health professionals.

 

[FantasyIreland]

Bear in mind what that 17k is actually saying. Everyone else that did have underlying health conditions doesn’t mean they were going to die from them had they not caught covid too.

I’m not sure it’s right to only focus on death as the impact of it either.

Just as you shouldn't with cancer,which in many cases was relegated.....

I also agree with your first paragraph,pneumonia or Influenza could have just as easily seen them off.

 

[blueparrot]

The NHS exists to serve the country to the best of its ability considering the investment in it. The country doesn’t run to ensure the health service isn’t overwhelmed. That’s a nice to have.

We had viruses/pandemics before we had a health service, yet we still got on with it.

Had the NHS been overrun, we would have dealt (or not) with it, but the death count wouldn’t have been massively different I expect (other countries without health services aren’t seeing massively different numbers). In any event, it certainly wasn’t being overrun by kids and healthy working adults…yet these were the people we were locking down and who will pay the price.

The worlds population grew by about 1% in 2021 so circa 80M. We’ve lost close to 6M with (not due to) Covid. 6M is 0.0075% of the worlds population.

We struggle to see it at the local/Human level, but on a global scale, looking at the numbers, the impact on the health of the human race is inconsequential.

That'd nonsense, if the NHS was over run and no lockdown you can't know how many needing oxygen and ventilation wouldn't have got it and died, you can't know how many needing other treatments wouldn't have had beds or staff to treat them and died, including young people, though not sure why it's okay if older people die as long as the young are okay.
Pretending you know these things to suit your arguments is just making stuff up.

 

[Gremlin]

We struggle to see it at the local/Human level, but on a global scale, looking at the numbers, the impact on the health of the human race is inconsequential.

So is the impact of wars, but it still doesn't mean we shouldn't try and avoid them.

 

[Brightwell’s left peg]

That'd nonsense, if the NHS was over run and no lockdown you can't know how many needing oxygen and ventilation wouldn't have got it and died, you can't know how many needing other treatments wouldn't have had beds or staff to treat them and died, including young people, though not sure why it's okay if older people die as long as the young are okay.
Pretending you know these things to suit your arguments is just making stuff up.

I’m not staying in this thread much longer, as it’s never possible to have pragmatic debates, but I’d ask you Is it ripping through countries that dont have health services, ventilation and oxygen and killing millions? No it isn’t, hence it’s not an unreasonable assumption here

I didn’t say it’s ok…I said the response has been disproportionate. Death is a fact of life, and things come along. Can’t eradicate it, and we can’t spend all of our money trying to minimise it. It has to be proportionate…and again I’m simply arguing it hasn’t been.

 

[Brightwell’s left peg]

So is the impact of wars, but it still doesn't mean we shouldn't try and avoid them.

Try at what cost though.

 

[blueparrot]

I’m not staying in this thread much longer, as it’s never possible to have pragmatic debates, but I’d ask you Is it ripping through countries that dont have health services, ventilation and oxygen and killing millions? No it isn’t, hence it’s not an unreasonable assumption here

I didn’t say it’s ok…I said the response has been disproportionate. Death is a fact of life, and things come along. Can’t eradicate it, and we can’t spend all of our money trying to minimise it. It has to be proportionate…and again I’m simply arguing it hasn’t been.

Which comparable countries poulation wise don't have a health service and didn't have lockdowns ?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

48% of of the 14,855 ‘Covid’ patients in hospital on January 18th were not principally being treated for Covid. The proportion of patients in hospital ‘with’ Covid but not ‘because’ of it has been increasing since the onset of Omicron (Guardian live blog).

And even moreso in London, ahead of the wave compared to the rest of the country

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I’d ask you Is it ripping through countries that dont have health services, ventilation and oxygen and killing millions? No it isn’t

See India

Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic

India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest...

www.cgdev.org

 

[Brightwell’s left peg]

See India

Three New Estimates of India’s All-Cause Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic

India lacks an authoritative estimate of the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic. We report excess mortality estimates from three different data sources from the pandemic’s start through June 2021. Estimating COVID-deaths with statistical confidence may prove elusive. But all estimates suggest...

www.cgdev.org

What is that as a % of their population?

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Good article on long covid. Sadly it’s paywalled but perhaps some may be able to see it

Access Restricted

 

[BlueAnorak]

The way to try and answer that question is to look at the excess deaths data (i.e. how many more people have died compared to the 5 year average). If they were 'going to die anyway' then there wouldn't be any. There might be a few more up front (as the virus hastened death) before an undershoot afterwards as things returned to the average but it would even out over time. From the data, whilst this a small amount of this, it looks like there were still far more excess deaths over the course of the pandemic than just vulnerable people dying a few weeks earlier than they would have done anyway.

Microsoft Power BI

app.powerbi.com

Quite. Excess deaths is the only way to measure this particular pie.
Interestingly excess deaths will exceed actual deaths for each pandemic wave, till the latter waves and in the endemic phase when actual deaths undershoot expected deaths.
We are there now with actual deaths currently undershooting average deaths by 8% at the height of the UK Omicron phase according to ONS figures.

 

[kaz7]

We need a time machine to send back the people brushing it off so they can see what happened , short memories

 

[BlueAnorak]

Was South Africa ignored over mild Omicron evidence?

South African scientists say their research was not taken more seriously because it was from Africa.

www.bbc.co.uk

From the horses mouth!

Undoubtedly.
I'm surprised the Beeb are running with that given their membership of the government (small g) group-think blob.

 

[Phil1]

Posters who’ve been playing it down for the best part of two years were eventually going to be right I suppose..
I’m sure in their heads they feel vindicated for their views but let’s be honest, for the majority of the time they’ve been in La la land and had the world just cracked on without restrictions it’d be in a fucking critical condition about now.

 

[bluemc1]

Stats and lies. Obviously the more underlying illnesses or the older the more dangerous it is. Doesn't mean many younger people with manageable condition or no conditions didn't die. The difference is some of those older vulnerable may have died with flu or other diseases. The second group wouldn'thave without covid.
So it wasn't a pandemaic of just old and vulnerable as my daughter who has sat with people in their 20s and 40s while they where dying in hospital would tell you in no uncertain terms.

221 perfectly healthy people from between the ages of 20 and 49 from February 2020 to December 2021 died from Covid alone

as the doctor who spoke to Javid said, he’s sure there has been some but he personally hasn’t seen a young healthy person die from Covid

makes sense to me as no young healthy sports stars or celebrities have died from it that I know of but thousands of them have had it, you’d think this deadly virus causing a world wide pandemic that effects all people might have seen a few of them off

just lucky I guess

 

[Gremlin]

Quite. Excess deaths is the only way to measure this particular pie.
Interestingly excess deaths will exceed actual deaths for each pandemic wave, till the latter waves and in the endemic phase when actual deaths undershoot expected deaths.
We are there now with actual deaths currently undershooting average deaths by 8% at the height of the UK Omicron phase according to ONS figures.

Yes, but they are not cancelling out. Over 133,000 excess to the end of 2021 and that includes the post-wave 'undershoots'. the 8% undershoot in the first week of this year is interesting as the average excess deaths over the previous 20 weeks was 13%.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The GBD was sponsored by a right wing American thinktank, the AIER.

It's a political document, not scientific or medical, and universally regarded as a fantasy by public health professionals.

On this we agree.
The GBD s total bollox.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Yes, but they are not cancelling out. Over 133,000 excess to the end of 2021 and that includes the post-wave 'undershoots'. the 8% undershoot in the first week of this year is interesting as the average excess deaths over the previous 20 weeks was 13%.

And where did I say they would?
Recorded Covid deaths under cooked excess death figures till the end of Alpha. Delta was about equal, but with Omicron it has flipped on it's head even with 600-800 Covid deaths a day by the end of the month yet with total 8%, or so, under the average deaths for this month at the moment.
48% would have died from what they were admitted to hospital for and a large chunk of the rest will have tested +ve for Covid and then died of something else later on. Then there is the fact that this is a very, very good year for Flu so those deaths aren't there.

 

[kaz7]

221 perfectly healthy people from between the ages of 20 and 49 from February 2020 to December 2021 died from Covid alone

as the doctor who spoke to Javid said, he’s sure there has been some but he personally hasn’t seen a young healthy person die from Covid

makes sense to me as no young healthy sports stars or celebrities have died from it that I know of but thousands of them have had it, you’d think this deadly virus causing a world wide pandemic that effects all people might have seen a few of them off

just lucky I guess

Still putting out dangerous bollocks