Coronavirus (2022) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

It’s a strange choice of word in the headline yes but the point is that it was unexpected given half the country just had covid. Either way it’s good news.

Excellent news mate

 

[TheBlueDune]

I’m not sure why the Express refer to the reduced mortality in January as a “Bombshell”. Wasn’t the weather pretty mild in January? Aren’t the vast majority of people just getting on with their lives and there are virtually no restrictions?

And the people who were at most risk of dying, the sick elderly, have already died?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I think this puts it well.

Rather than celebrate getting back to an old normal which can never exist, we should instead forward and aim for a new normal.

That can be better than the old normal and reduce the risk of covid returning as a major problem, but only if we deliberately make the right choices rather than closing our eyes and hoping it's gone away.

 

[SWP's back]

I think this puts it well.

Rather than celebrate getting back to an old normal which can never exist, we should instead forward and aim for a new normal.

That can be better than the old normal and reduce the risk of covid returning as a major problem, but only if we deliberately make the right choices rather than closing our eyes and hoping it's gone away.

“More severe than Flu” is most certainly debatable for Omicron though and isn’t borne out by U.K. data.

 

[grunge]

“More severe than Flu” is most certainly debatable for Omicron though and isn’t borne out by U.K. data.

She points out the waning immunity of infection + vaccines in her thread which will play a big part. right now we have very high seroprevalence of antibodies in the population due to the vaccines/boosters and very large wave of infections from Omicron. Personally I think that has resulted in a trough in the CFA. As those all the antibidies level off to "endemic" levels, where people just catch it like standard colds/flu the odds are the CFA will increase back up a little as we will never have the same seroprevalence levels as we do right now. Where that final line will lay is anyone's guess though, Id personally ( uneducated guess work ) guess it will be at least top end flu levels

I dont doubt it will be long before there is a flu+Covid jab though to help limit any increases.

 

[Bluewonder]

I think this puts it well.

Rather than celebrate getting back to an old normal which can never exist, we should instead forward and aim for a new normal.

That can be better than the old normal and reduce the risk of covid returning as a major problem, but only if we deliberately make the right choices rather than closing our eyes and hoping it's gone away.

This thread might as well be titled: "Why I'm so desperate to maintain my recently gained position of influence and the financial benefits it provides"

 

[roubaixtuesday]

“More severe than Flu” is most certainly debatable for Omicron though and isn’t borne out by U.K. data.

From what I've seen, that's definitely not the case.

Eg



So interested to hear your source.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

This thread might as well be titled: "Why I'm so desperate to maintain my recently gained position of influence and the financial benefits it provides"

Rather than engage in mind reading on motivations, it might be more interesting to state which parts of this you disagree with, and why.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

From what I've seen, that's definitely not the case.

Eg



So interested to hear your source.

I think scientists need to change their rhetoric. Using phrases like “the new normal” sends a certain proportion of the human race into a mental tailspin.

Instead, reverse it and say we’ll be back to normal unless X happens.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Instead, reverse it and say we’ll be back to normal unless X happens

I can see where you're coming from, but I think there will be major and enduring change, and in ways it's impossible to predict.

Some of the following will likely happen. Some are (to me) desirable, some debatable and some very undesirable. I don't know at all what will pan out, but the upheaval has been so large, I do think there will be major changes. Perhaps some would have happened anyway, but have been accelerated.

- much more investment in healthcare
- permanent shift to more online retail
- normalising of mask wearing as in SE Asia pre pandemic
- major changes to working patterns, particularly for office workers
- the demise of cash transactions
- move away from global supply chains
- rise of economic and political nationalism
- youth uprising against economic system excluding them from societal wealth.
- changes to school and university learning and assessment.

Doubtless many more possibilities.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I can see where you're coming from, but I think there will be major and enduring change, and in ways it's impossible to predict.

Some of the following will likely happen. Some are (to me) desirable, some debatable and some very undesirable. I don't know at all what will pan out, but the upheaval has been so large, I do think there will be major changes. Perhaps some would have happened anyway, but have been accelerated.

- much more investment in healthcare
- permanent shift to more online retail
- normalising of mask wearing as in SE Asia pre pandemic
- major changes to working patterns, particularly for office workers
- the demise of cash transactions
- move away from global supply chains
- rise of economic and political nationalism
- youth uprising against economic system excluding them from societal wealth.
- changes to school and university learning and assessment.

Doubtless many more possibilities.

I don’t disagree. Selling it is vital though. Try to limit how much change people will have to endure. Focus on how much better it is now than in 2020-1.

 

[Gremlin]

I can see where you're coming from, but I think there will be major and enduring change, and in ways it's impossible to predict.

Some of the following will likely happen. Some are (to me) desirable, some debatable and some very undesirable. I don't know at all what will pan out, but the upheaval has been so large, I do think there will be major changes. Perhaps some would have happened anyway, but have been accelerated.

- much more investment in healthcare
- permanent shift to more online retail
- normalising of mask wearing as in SE Asia pre pandemic
- major changes to working patterns, particularly for office workers
- the demise of cash transactions
- move away from global supply chains
- rise of economic and political nationalism
- youth uprising against economic system excluding them from societal wealth.
- changes to school and university learning and assessment.

Doubtless many more possibilities.

Another one is reduction in foreign holidays and that may also link in to the climate change pressures. The world, and society, is always changing - sometimes it is gradual and incremental and sometimes, like now, it happens very quickly. It isn't always a bad thing, even if it is uncomfortable at times.

 

[SWP's back]

From what I've seen, that's definitely not the case.

Eg



So interested to hear your source.

That’s omicron is it? Because I specifically stated omicron and your source doesn’t seem to be speaking just about omicron.



Also given fewer people died in January 2022 than during the average of the 5 preceding years (discounting 2021 to make it a fair comparison), it’s safe to say that if Omicron had a higher fatality rate than Flu, we’d have seen an above average rate of death given more people caught omicron this winter than would normally catch Flu.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

That’s omicron is it? Because I specifically stated omicron and your source doesn’t seem to be speaking just about omicron.

The case fatality rate is a very poor measure of lethality. Ascertainment (what proportion of cases are discovered) can easily overwhelm underlying disease severity.

And it also takes no account of prevalence. A high CFR is overwhelmed by a disease with lower cfr but higher incidence.

 

[SWP's back]

The case fatality rate is a very poor measure of lethality. Ascertainment (what proportion of cases are discovered) can easily overwhelm underlying disease severity.

And it also takes no account of prevalence. A high CFR is overwhelmed by a disease with lower cfr but higher incidence.

So let’s use average death mortality rates then. Oh what’s that? January 2022 saw a below average amount of deaths despite 6m estimated omicron infections? How’s that as a measure of lethality?

I made a statement, you asked for a source. I provided it, it ruins your argument so you’ve decided you don’t like it. I really couldn’t give a shit. Anyone that would rather have Flu than Omicron (after 3 jabs) would be very foolish and there’s zero data to disagree with that.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I made a statement, you asked for a source. I provided it, it ruins your argument so you’ve decided you don’t like it. I really couldn’t give a shit. Anyone that would rather have Flu than Omicron (after 3 jabs) would be very foolish and there’s zero data to disagree with that.

Jeez, take a chill pill.

Your source addresses a different question. As I tried to explain, without the shouting and swearing. I'm not sure why you feel the need to go direct to conflict.

Your final point - I've no idea if that's sensible or not. Not seen a triple jab vs flu comparison. It's a totally different measure to what the telegraph data shows.

Dare I ask if you have a source for it?

 

[True_Blue69]

I think this puts it well.

Rather than celebrate getting back to an old normal which can never exist, we should instead forward and aim for a new normal.

That can be better than the old normal and reduce the risk of covid returning as a major problem, but only if we deliberately make the right choices rather than closing our eyes and hoping it's gone away.

Blocked that weirdo on Twitter ages ago, one of the most morbid on there.

 

[True_Blue69]

Rather than engage in mind reading on motivations, it might be more interesting to state which parts of this you disagree with, and why.

That’s actually one of her better ones to be fair. Though I disagree that we can’t or won’t go back to pre-2020 normal, pretty much there now.

 

[Healdplace]

The falls on cases and deaths continue

193 all settings deaths

was 254 last week

England only 160 - was 228 last week



58,899 cases - was 66,638 yesterday & 84,053 last week

England only

46,736 - was 53,993 yesterday & 73,185 last week

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Blocked that weirdo on Twitter ages ago, one of the most morbid on there.

Ah, rational debate, the enlightenment wasn't a wasted effort after all.