Coronavirus (2022) thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
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meltonblue said:
The danish model was a prediction not a projection of scenarios. What a lot seem to be ignoring is that the danish prediction was also used both by Sage and the government. The head of danish modelling is a member of Sage too.
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A projection of scenarios is a total waste of time. As has been proven.
 
BlueAnorak said:
A projection of scenarios is a total waste of time. As has been proven.
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Proven by what? Surely you only need to look at the US to think we were right to accelerate the booster programme?

And of course it isn’t. It gives the trigger points to provide for early decision making. Thankfully with omicron, it was obvious pretty early on that no further additional decisions were needed (I’d strongly argue not just because of the severity of omicron, which is understated by quite a few, but because they made the most important decision early and that was the booster)
 
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BlueAnorak said:
I've read the documents from SAGE and the best case scenario was worse than actuals (as usual).
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The total deaths from the pandemic is slightly higher than their reasonable worst case scenario from July 2020.

You do understand that we would always want the actual to be lower than their scenario though, even in their optimistic ones?
 
meltonblue said:
The total deaths from the pandemic is slightly higher than their reasonable worst case scenario from July 2020.

You do understand that we would always want the actual to be lower than their scenario though, even in their optimistic ones?
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Of course, but the problem with that is nobody will believe ANYTHING they publish in the future. You do understand that don't you?
 
BlueAnorak said:
Of course, but the problem with that is nobody will believe ANYTHING they publish in the future. You do understand that don't you?
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Right and as I said I predominately blame the media for that given if they think it’s a best case prediction of what will happen, then they’re not understanding it properly at all. If it was explained what they were actually saying it for and therefore what they’re used for then that issue wouldn’t happen.

Got no issue with them looking at the forecast rather than the scenario planning. As already said though, the denmark model provided to Sage was pretty spot on too though.

It is a balancing act though admittedly and I have said a few times I think they’ve been too transparent at times.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
They literally cannot guess when modelling. Modelling requires the exact opposite of guessing.

They can only use a data set, that data set can give a vary of answers if used together in different ways, but they cannot use any of their expertise or experience or even common sense to change the outcomes the data provides otherwise the model cannot be published because the outcomes have been “tampered with”.

They way people moaning about the modelling is bizarre. They might not even advise what the models suggest could be required.
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lol the literal meaning of a model is a guess you clown.
 
I hope all you supporters of SAGE are happy with the impending financial doom that's approaching. Part of this is the cost of not coming out of lockdown 8 months ago when we could have done if it wasn't for SAGE advising the government not to open things up. Now it's payback time, enjoy.
 
BerkshireBlue said:
I hope all you supporters of SAGE are happy with the impending financial doom that's approaching. Part of this is the cost of not coming out of lockdown 8 months ago when we could have done if it wasn't for SAGE advising the government not to open things up. Now it's payback time, enjoy.
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We haven't been in lockdown for the last eight months, you clown.
 
BerkshireBlue said:
I hope all you supporters of SAGE are happy with the impending financial doom that's approaching. Part of this is the cost of not coming out of lockdown 8 months ago when we could have done if it wasn't for SAGE advising the government not to open things up. Now it's payback time, enjoy.
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19 July 2021 was exactly 7 months ago which was when all restrictions were lifted. Full lockdown was lifted 11 months ago and remaining restrictions were gradually lifted over the following 4 months. What lockdown are you talking about? The imaginary one that the freedom protestors are complaining about?
 
BerkshireBlue said:
I hope all you supporters of SAGE are happy with the impending financial doom that's approaching. Part of this is the cost of not coming out of lockdown 8 months ago when we could have done if it wasn't for SAGE advising the government not to open things up. Now it's payback time, enjoy.
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Fake news I believe is what the loony right call shit like this.
 
west didsblue said:
19 July 2021 was exactly 7 months ago which was when all restrictions were lifted. Full lockdown was lifted 11 months ago and remaining restrictions were gradually lifted over the following 4 months. What lockdown are you talking about? The imaginary one that the freedom protestors are complaining about?
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I’m sure there are folk who’ve locked themselves in the attic for the last 12 months and have no idea that life has been pretty much normal for most of us.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
But. They. Didn’t.

They modelled all scenarios.

Whoever made the decisions on their results are the ones whose houses you need to camp outside with pitchforks.
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Their best case model for omicron was for between 3000 to 10000 hospitalizations in England alone daily. The other two scenarios they did for omicron resulted in much higher numbers. We actually reached a peak of just over 2000 admissions. How can you say they modelled all scenarios, when the actual data falls well below their best case?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Their best case model for omicron was for between 3000 to 10000 hospitalizations in England alone daily. The other two scenarios they did for omicron resulted in much higher numbers. We actually reached a peak of just over 2000 admissions. How can you say they modelled all scenarios, when the actual data falls well below their best case?
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The LHTSE most optimistic model was just over 2000 admissions and that was at the time when they were still making an assumption that Omicron would be as severe as Delta so that’s just factually wrong. If you consider the forecast modelling they considered from Denmark too that has been discussed already, that was pretty bang on.

They don’t model all scenarios for projections though, that’s wrong to suggest that too. They model scenarios to try and show where further intervention may be required, there’s not much point in ones that don’t. It did what it needed to with Omicron in terms of speeding up the booster vaccine rollout (without that, then the admissions would have been higher than their best case scenario) and also because we learned very quickly that omicron was less severe than delta and that behaviours had significantly changed anyway (which I do think they need to factor more in, but they’ve said the same too), we knew that the actual would be lower fairly quickly in the cycle, it never hit the trigger points.
 
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