COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Eds]

Daily briefings are now be given by No 10.
In the first one today the Government needs to explain the justification for it's 'controlled herd immunity' programme, why it is better than the lockdown measures adopted in other countries and the risks.
Not hopeful but let's see.

Just heard a top professor on TV (he is Director of the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection) saying that the virus will come back in the winter. If we all catch it now and for most it will be mild or not noticeable at all (look what Arteta's wife said) then immunity builds up. If however we isolate everyone and it comes back then we will have a similar state of panic to what we now have. He admitted it's a delicate balancing act as to what is the right thing to do but it's important that the vulnerable who it will hit the hardest are looked after.

 

[SB Blue]

A doctor friend told my daughter on Sat that she thought there was already 10s of thousands infected in the UK.

Based on the comments from footballers who have tested positive, ranging from it feeling like a cold or in some cases being asymptotic, it’s not hard to believe this. Didn’t the figures in China shoot up when they started testing everyone in hospital and not just those showing symptoms?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Flawed thinking.

We are also accepting that our measures will have to continue for a long long time. How can 40m get infected over anything other than 1year+ without overwhelming the NHS?. Do the maths

So both nations will have to continue with their measures only we will have many more dead than they will. So which policies are the correct ones?

The Asian nations are much more in tune with what needs to be done because of their previous experiences with SARS and other viruses. Monitoring and testing, testing, testing, testing.

But we in the UK - with no experience - apparently know best. No point in widespread testing apparently.

on testing, there is no point as we have already said those with mild conditions should self isolate. So that’s whether they have it or not. So if they follow the advice that should help the spread.

the Asian countries have seemingly controlled the spread if you look at the numbers but that’s by locking everything down. You have no idea whether that is effective or not until they try and return to normal. When they come out of isolation the virus is still going to be around and guess what the danger is you end up with it increasing again as people try to return to normal.

the strategy here , which I agree with, is as there is no vaccine it will spread so the plan will be to make sure that spread does not peak at anyone time and we spread the strain on the health services as best we can to avoid a spike ( they will still be overwhelmed) but that is the plan. At the same time planning to protect the vulnerable.

that’s why it’s going to be a drip feed of measures , wash hands , stay in if have symptoms, protect vulnerable , at some point ban large gatherings , eventually close schools and then lockdown.

however all of that is managed to protect the vulnerable and the nhs.

you can’t just lock the whole country down for a year, it won’t work. Even if you do the virus will still be here when we get out.

 

[George Hannah]

Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing? The experts you seem to trust implicitly (specifically Patrick Vallance) said on Thursday, "much more likely we've got somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 people infected."

With doubling every 3 days, that would mean 10,000 to 20,000 as of now.

What's your problem with believing this country's top medical and scientific experts? What is it you think they are lying about?

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Maybe years and years of bullshit coming from the top has led to people bring distrustful of the government.
That’s what happens you see when the evidence piles up that the country has been misled over and over again over many different issues. Some small, some big, but all when added together mean that when the serious shit hits the fan, when the people genuinely need somebody to look up to to help them through the worst of times they feel they can’t believe the advice being given.
You keep banging on about us having the best this and best that in terms of scientists won’t change things for those people terrified of what the future holds.
Looking from afar one can only hope that the U.K. have taken the correct measures and the rest of the world are wrong. You’ll have to forgive me though for being a little worried that this isn’t the case and those who are meant to protect their citizens have fucked up - again.

we can only pursue an optimal strategy for our circumstances. For example, hospital beds have been reduced by successive Governments for decades and the Government aware of this in the efforts to slow the spread of the virus.

Also, lots of us are keen to slate the Government but they aren’t the fookers who are filling their sheds with bog roll and hand sanitisers. There’s a lot of people whose behaviour is questionable.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Just heard a top professor on TV (he is Director of the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection) saying that the virus will come back in the winter. If we all catch it now and for most it will be mild or not noticeable at all (look what Arteta's wife said) then immunity builds up. If however we isolate everyone and it comes back then we will have a similar state of panic to what we now have. He admitted it's a delicate balancing act as to what is the right thing to do but it's important that the vulnerable who it will hit the hardest are looked after.

The majority are going to be exposed at some point, it's a matter of controlling that to avoid very high peak strain on treatment capacity.

Many models suggest there will be the second peak in winter, and it's certainly going to come back in the future. Somehow the vulnerable group need to be exposed in such a manner that that the numbers from that group needing hospital treatment, both imminently and in the longer term, is smaller - i.e. not overwhelming treatment capacity.

I can see the logic of what he says - if you try to prevent any vulnerable group from being exposed until, say, July, then the numbers with infections later on is going to be higher.

 

[Fordyboy46]

This just says it all. People don’t even respect the requests to self isolate, they think it’s not essential. It’s just so typically British.

Exactly, so many employers not at all sympathetic towards this self isolation, and you can guarantee when the isolators do return back to work a lot will get warnings.

 

[shevtheblue]

What's your problem with believing this country's top medical and scientific experts? What is it you think they are lying about?

229 scientists have written a letter to the govt advising against the strategy we are following. The scientists in Italy, who are going through this and have now got experience we won't have, are all advising against it. We are tackling this virus completely different to nearly every other country, so you can maybe see where people are worried.

 

[George Hannah]

Maybe years and years of bullshit coming from the top has led to people bring distrustful of the government.
That’s what happens you see when the evidence piles up that the country has been misled over and over again over many different issues. Some small, some big, but all when added together mean that when the serious shit hits the fan, when the people genuinely need somebody to look up to to help them through the worst of times they feel they can’t believe the advice being given.
You keep banging on about us having the best this and best that in terms of scientists won’t change things for those people terrified of what the future holds.
Looking from afar one can only hope that the U.K. have taken the correct measures and the rest of the world are wrong. You’ll have to forgive me though for being a little worried that this isn’t the case and those who are meant to protect their citizens have fucked up - again.

I don't know where you are but the 'UK v rest of the world' mantra is simply stupid. What is right for one country might not be for another, many things are a question of timing and the UK has ruled nothing out (if circumstances require it) as far as I am aware.

 

[shevtheblue]

I just want to reiterate that the Chinese are dirty fucking bastards for eating anything, half the time without cooking it.

I have just seen a video this morning which is supposedly from a market in Wuhan, it's seriously distressing, and i don't even really like animals.