COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[blueparrot]

Which is why I'm doing this:

Thanks also. I haven't seen Gelson's table - I will try to find it and take a look.

it was here not sure why I’m not seeing it now.

 

[blueparrot]

Totally agree. How slow, and how Long for, i would add. Even then, will that ensure this claimed 80% will not happen eventually? it is so widespread and present just now, globally, that any slowing of it is purely buying time, at a cost yet to be determined. the best we can hope for is a little bit of help with the weather holding, people being sensible and following measurea to limit the spread, and speedy vaccine diacovery production and distribution. Withouth society and economy collapsing in the meantime.

The great unknown is how many have it or had it.Kenny Dalglish and 2 people I know went to hospital for unrelated issues and have been tested 2 have it 1 is waiting their result.

 

[Vic]

I found those scenes particularly frustrating. I was struck with the question, are there not local cheese or dairy manufacturers they could have given the milk to? Cheese keeps years if the right sort. Seemed an incredible shame to be pouring something of intrinsic value down the drain.

And BTW even more galling that the one bloody Tesco online shop I did manage to get for my Mum, they didn't have any fucking milk!

Cheese sales are down (after the stockpiling). Artisan cheese makers losing outlets. Distribution problems. Same in USA (though I suppose survivalists' demand for powdered milk might be up).

Half our food production went to hotels / eating out / takeaway. We won't normally have 3 course meals at home.

Sad video from one guy - and his website has no product so I think this offer was too late.

 

[Coatigan]

Worth bearing in mind that South Korea had a worse start than us, much worse, and so far have had 208 deaths. So it shows what is possible with the right disciplines in place.

(I mention them in particular since they are quite comparable to us. Similar population size, similar country size (area) and similar average age.)

If we can get this under control, it is entirely feasible to keep it under control.

Agree. Depends on whether the spike still comes later, once they start returning to normal life, and they end up being where everyone is anyway, having held it back early. Or whether life ever goes back to normal there.

 

[Coatigan]

It took my a while to understand the table and graph Gelson has been posting, but what his table does is take the daily figure but allocate each death to the correct day and only 117 of yesterdays figure were allocated to that day as we go forward when deaths are allocated they will add to the 117, so the more recent the date the more volatile it’s figure will be
It’s this sort of processed data that will be used by government to judge trend and effectiveness of restrictions , not the raw data of daily figures we see.
Once understood the @Gelsons Dad table is really useful.

I've missed this, could you re-post it please?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

117 was the amount they had recorded upto publishing yesterday’s update. There will be more but that’s all they had managed to record upto the update.

If you check the NHS England Covid stats sheets that have been posted on here you can get all the relevant daily and total numbers and how they change.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

it seems to me that the figures are being manipulated, it seems the actual deaths yesterday were lower than the reported deaths and funnily enough the day before a hot Easter weekend they announce more deaths from previous weeks . May be that is to ram home the message at this important time

However it really cannot be that difficult for the government to now to produce a graph showing the actual deaths on the actual days so we can see the real trends and the actual deaths on the actual days .

 

[blueparrot]

I've missed this, could you re-post it please?

Went back to where he posted it and I’m not seeing it. Not sure why. See post above for link to his original post. I’ll have another look .

 

[Tim of the Oak]

it seems to me that the figures are being manipulated, it seems the actual deaths yesterday were lower than the reported deaths and funnily enough the day before a hot Easter weekend they announce more deaths from previous weeks . May be that is to ram home the message at this important time

However it really cannot be that difficult for the government to now to produce a graph showing the actual deaths on the actual days so we can see the real trends and the actual deaths on the actual days .

Other posters have explained the administrative difficulties with what you are suggesting. Maybe take up a new hobby mate if you are desperate for the Covid mortality rates to be accurate on a daily basis.

 

[Coatigan]

The great unknown is how many have it or had it.Kenny Dalglish and 2 people I know went to hospital for unrelated issues and have been tested 2 have it 1 is waiting their result.

Yeah true. And all predicated on the assumption that having it reduces the chances of having it again.
My point was more that saying there in an expectation that 80% will eventually end up having it, isnt the same as saying we want or need 80% to have had it.

 

[kippax4ever]

Had a chat with by brother yesterday and he lives I Moston.

For those people who know the area there is a kids play area on Attleboro Road and on the corner of Oscar st and he said over the last few days that area is just full not of kids but entire families who are smoking and drinking with music blasting out.

The police go round and dispurse them but around an hour later they are back out doing exactly the same thing.

What is wrong with some people?

Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing.
Other options,
Trash every pricks house,
Give them a good fking kicking.
Hire snipers.
Make them work..grave diggers..
Or follow Saudi rules,& cut their fking hands off..

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Other posters have explained the administrative difficulties with what you are suggesting. Maybe take up a new hobby mate if you are desperate for the Covid mortality rates to be accurate on a daily basis.

its not difficult as we have the data now . I am not suggesting you can announce accurately on the day as there will be a lag due to different reporting etc.

however the government ( I am not the government ) can look backwards now and provide a true picture of deaths on each day , I think it would be useful to see the actual trend.

 

[Marvin]

The following data is the tests per million sourced from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I typed the data in line by line, and as a result there maybe errors. You can check it just by filtering the worldometer column test/million from yesterday's sheet.

I have included the notable countries, and all the major Western nations. Some nations are for reasons of size logistically easy to test because they are small island nations, but in my opinion it is as good a measure of a nation's response. I think the data for a couple of countries maybe out of date, for example Spain.

The UK has one of the worst records for testing in the Western world by capita.

I had some opinion/comment in my initial post but I deleted it because I think the data speaks for itself.

Some nations like Italy, and USA were playing catch-up with their testing. They only started testing when their countries were being ravaged by the virus but looking back now we can see that mass-testing is one of the few defences that a country has.

Faroe Islands-------110,677
Iceland--------------100,002
UAE------------------59,967
Switzerland--------20,625
Qatar---------------15,737
Germany-----------15,730
Italy-----------------14,999
Austria--------------14,961
Hong Kong----------12,900
Singapore-----------12,243
New Zealand-------11,458
Denmark------------11,176
Ireland--------------10,734
South Korea--------9,812
USA-----------------7,670
Spain---------------7,593
Russia--------------7,469
Belgium------------7,269
Netherlands-------5,926
Sweden------------5,416
France-------------5,114
UK------------------4,667
Greece-------------3,409

 

[Chippy_boy]

Agree. Depends on whether the spike still comes later, once they start returning to normal life, and they end up being where everyone is anyway, having held it back early. Or whether life ever goes back to normal there.

Personally I think they are showing it is possible. They are already back to functioning pretty normally.

The bigger questions for me are (a) do we have the mentality across the public as a whole to knuckle down to the extent needed. Activities this weekend might indicate that. And (b) have we simply let it get too far? If there are millions of people infected already, is it actually possible to get enough of the genie back in the bottle? Since we don't actually know how many are infected, that's rather difficult to judge. Time will tell I guess.

 

[Vic]

Do you think there is any practical way of ensuring less than 80% end up getting it, eventually?

"Getting it" presumably includes those who were infected (and infected others) without symptoms (but may include people who were exposed but didn't catch it - but might still have passed on the virus).

I'm personally not buying why unreliable testing means we shouldn't be testing for antibodies. Unless the tests give wildly inaccurate results you'd still have some idea of prevalence. Those quotes from the Home Office advisor are worrying - I'd like to know how prevalent his views are behind the scenes.

 

[blueparrot]

"Getting it" presumably includes those who were infected (and infected others) without symptoms (but may include people who were exposed but didn't catch it - but might still have passed on the virus).

I'm personally not buying why unreliable testing means we shouldn't be testing for antibodies. Unless the tests give wildly inaccurate results you'd still have some idea of prevalence. Those quotes from the Home Office advisor are worrying - I'd like to know how prevalent his views are behind the scenes.

What would be the point of buying and rolling out unreliable tests when in a few weeks if reliable one are available we have to do it all again.

 

[Coatigan]

Personally I think they are showing it is possible. They are already back to functioning pretty normally.

The bigger questions for me are (a) do we have the mentality across the public as a whole to knuckle down to the extent needed. Activities this weekend might indicate that. And (b) have we simply let it get too far? If there are millions of people infected already, is it actually possible to get enough of the genie back in the bottle? Since we don't actually know how many are infected, that's rather difficult to judge. Time will tell I guess.

Agree with all that, 100%. And i certainly hope s.korea prove to be right. If nothing else, as an example of how to deal with it should sonething sinilar happen again

 

[East Level 2]

Why is there too much milk? Do we drink more latte at work than at home?
Farmers pouring thousands of litres away.

Not my fault Vic. When at work I drink some brown sludge claiming to be coffee dispensed from a machine. When working from home, as I have been since the beginning of March, I have liquid milk in my frequent brews.

 

[ManCitizens.]

Had a chat with by brother yesterday and he lives I Moston.

For those people who know the area there is a kids play area on Attleboro Road and on the corner of Oscar st and he said over the last few days that area is just full not of kids but entire families who are smoking and drinking with music blasting out.

The police go round and dispurse them but around an hour later they are back out doing exactly the same thing.

What is wrong with some people?

So many people out and about yesterday. I don’t see any way that’s changing today as people just don’t seem to give a shit and the weathers nice. Nowhere near enough police to enforce the rules and pitiful fines don’t deter most.

They seriously need to think about upping the fines and other ways to encourage people to stay in. Personally, I think anybody caught ignore the rules should be at the back of the queue if they need medical help but what do I do know.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Why is there too much milk? Do we drink more latte at work than at home?

Farmers pouring thousands of litres away.

How many Lattes do you have a day? Is the food you eat out more creamy that what you eat in? Do you eat more cheese when you out then when you're in.
I reckon I'm consuming a pint of milk less a day at the moment.

 

[jimharri]

There are times when you despair of the human race. Just how stupid can people be?