COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BlueAnorak]

Big increase in deaths in Scotaland today from 16 yesterday to 22 today. Thats 37 5%. Let's hope that's an outrider.

5 deaths in wales from 17 yesterday to 22 today so thats 29%. So maybe not that much of an outrider.

 

[jay_mcfc]

If there are 38000 cases and 3000 are critical I don’t see how the death rate would be 40% of the active cases otherwise the critical case number would be over 15000. Unless Im missing something.

Sadly I think 99% of the critical ones will die. It seems like there are very few cases of people leaving icu. On that SKY news video in Italy the doctor there said they hadn't had one person survive from intensive care. I also saw a video yesterday of the first person in a Valencia hospital to leave icu and it was a big occasion with all the doctors and nurses giving them a sanding ovation as they left.

So the figures are probably correct.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

We’re both self isolating until the 14 day window is closed from our contact with this couple, which means we can go out on Saturday.

WHO says it can take 24 days...

 

[blueparrot]

And yet theg claim 143 new cases yesterday. ONLY 143? I wouldn't be surprised if they start to suppress testing and the the numbers to make it ok for Trump to open everything up at Easter. Theres no way they only had 143 new cases

11075 they show for yesterday, todays is 150 but they update figures all day I guess as each state reports.

 

[1.618034]

I am a supporter of vaccines but also am aware they are not the all protecting answer many think they are. This years flu vaccine for instance is showing effectiveness for 45% of the people that receive it. If you are over 65 you need between a double and quadruple dose compared to under 65s.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6907a1.htm

Even less effective if many don't take it. A vaccine not only protects the individual, it also helps slow the spread around the population.

Again, I'm not saying this is the cause, but I think it's worth discussing and shows why the anti-vaxxer movement is dangerous.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

80% of the last two years accounts like everyone else , done .

times says it will exclude anyone retired on a pension running a self employed business.

 

[jay_mcfc]

We may well be in trouble Jay but those numbers are not correct. 55k active cases and 802 deaths. Half of those cases are in NY state. The number of active cases is presumed to be much higher because we are only testing those with severe symptoms. Everyone else is just isolating (or should be).

Here's the stats on the USA from worldometer.

55,000 active cases

1164 of which have ended with;

785 deaths

369 recovered

It's a very small sample size compared with 55k cases but it doesn't make good reading.

Good luck and stay safe

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[blueparrot]

Sadly I think 99% of the critical ones will die. It seems like there are very few cases of people leaving icu. On that SKY news video in Italy the doctor there said they hadn't had one person survive from intensive care. I also saw a video yesterday of the first person in a Valencia hospital to leave icu and it was a big occasion with all the doctors and nurses giving them a sanding ovation as they left.

So the figures are probably correct.

Yes so that would be as it stands 99% of the 3000 critical cases, which is 7% of the 38000 active cases die not 40% , sorry if I’m being a bit thick here.

 

[George Hannah]

bit more from the article and comments

"...the researchers suggest that the vast majority of people who contract Covid-19 may suffer little or no illness. They believe that as few as one in a thousand could require hospital treatment — an assumption that suggests, according to their model, that half of the country could now be immune...Even if it’s one in a hundred [who fall seriously ill] you still get to 35 per cent immunity,” Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford, who led the study, said.
Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, urged that serological tests begin but said: “This is interesting work, but hampered by the same issues that impact all epidemiological models — they rely on assumptions based on a paucity of fact about how this virus transmits.”
The findings are based on assumptions about the most likely characteristics of the disease and are yet to be peer-reviewed or published in a journal."

Comment - Extremely unlikely that 50% of the population are already infected. We can’t disprove this of course but if we take the lowest case fatality rate of 1 in 1000 (from figures from areas all over the world) then we could have 30000 deaths - a disastrous tsunami of cases and deaths facing the NHS and the nation in a matter of weeks. The more realistic assessment is the UCL prediction that 10% of London’s population could/would be infected.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Sadly I think 99% of the critical ones will die. It seems like there are very few cases of people leaving icu. On that SKY news video in Italy the doctor there said they hadn't had one person survive from intensive care. I also saw a video yesterday of the first person in a Valencia hospital to leave icu and it was a big occasion with all the doctors and nurses giving them a sanding ovation as they left.

So the figures are probably correct.

I think that would be unlikely or we wouldn't be in panic mode over the lack of ventilators. If they were 99% unsuccessful, then I am not sure we'd even being considering them as a viable treatment option. I could believe maybe 50% of people on ventilators don't make it, but not 99%.