Nothing happens 19 days later. And here's your reasons. About 8 reasons, without thinking too hard.
- Because we were not talking about 1,000 infections. You were talking about e.g. the Dippers v Athletico game, which is going to be impossible to spot in the noise. It's a handful of extra infections. That should be end of discussion in itself.
- Because we didn't see a spike in infections 3 or 4 days after the game, which we would have done if there was going to be a visible spike in deaths later.
- Because the handful are not all scousers living in Notty Ash. They have dispersed all over the country, and infected people on the way to the game, at the game, at the pub afterwards and on the train home. They are all over the place, so again, impossible to spot.
- Because R0 is something like 2.2, so each infected person infects many more and the many more may die sooner or later than the first lot, depending on how long the incubation period was, which is highly variable.
- Because you don't have a "the game was called off" data set to compare it with.
- Because loads of people who get critically ill, stay critically ill for ages and haven't died yet.
- Because there is only 1 peak.
- I can't remember number 8. Bugger, it was a good one as well. Anyway, that will do. Believe what you like, I'm out.