COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Last Friday the numbers were 43 - 27 from Grampian 4 icu and - 5 in hospital (making it 262 or 9 more than today)

So cases still high but icu and hospital patients have dropped across the past 7 days and not one person has died in a month.

Those are the key facts.
 
Healdplace said:
Last Friday the numbers were 43 - 27 from Grampian 4 icu and - 5 in hospital (making it 262 or 9 more than today)

So cases still high but icu and hospital patients have dropped across the past 7 days and not one person has died in a month.

Those are the key facts.
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I think that makes Scotland at its lowest hospital numbers since the pandemic began. Which is great news. Concerns that the rise in infections might mean that won't last long however, but I suppose we have to wait.
 
Ban-jani said:
Looking at that we shouldn’t be even considering not opening schools and closing the economy.

The virus is blatantly weaker now.
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No, Its not. Our behaviour is different resulting in less viral load, and Viral load is a major factor in the severity of illness, there is also the demographic of who is infacted.

Virologists are on the record A LOT stating it takes years/decades for viruses to weaken.
 
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Ban-jani said:
I disagree mate, infections are going up but not deaths
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We have no idea how many caught it in March/April though, we only know how many tested positive, from relatively low test numbers. Now somewhere around 1000 per day are testing positive from generally >100,000 tests per day (so around 99,000 are testing negative, many of who must of some symptoms).

The virus is just as infectious (see the sandwich company in Northampton), but less are being infected because socially we are all behaving differently.

Also we now have a better idea how to treat those that get the more serious infections, and they are spending less time in hospital, and less are getting the most serious illness. None of this makes the virus weaker, but it all adds up to make it look weaker.
 
purplenose said:
I am very much on the cautious side with this virus. Think we lost 1000s because Boris fucked up etc, Would cheerfully turn the flame throwers on the panic buyers, Bournemouth beach types and BLM lot for risking all of us. I am concerned what might be the consequence of schools re-opening and so on......

But, As fitting with what a few doctors have suggested there would appear to be an increasingly lesser chance of being seriously ill or snuffing it from this. Not sure at all what to make of it. I think we need to know and I suspect more will become clear in the next month or so.
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Well it's been confirmed by study after study (Denmark, Switzerland, etc) that younger children can catch it but thst most are asymmptomatic, with very few becoming very ill and children also don't pass it on much.
So not much to worry about on that score I think.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
I think that makes Scotland at its lowest hospital numbers since the pandemic began. Which is great news. Concerns that the rise in infections might mean that won't last long however, but I suppose we have to wait.
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Agreed but so far over the past two weeks or so whilst some patients have gone in more have usually come out over a few day period. It looks pretty clear almost everywhere that those getting sick now are younger and less vulnerable to getting very ill than was the case so they often never need hospital treatment.

There are many possible reasons and some have been discussed here in the thread. And more than one factor is almost certainly involved (better understanding/treatment of the disease. the ones who were mostly dying in the past being the most susceptible and so there could be a natural reduction once 40,000 of them die and the evidence I see that the more vulnerable are still shielding almost like they did weeks ago so tend to avoid exposure more).

Yes, the virus behavioiur itself or levels of immunity might have a part to play too. But they are not necessary to still see the better scenario we have at present.

However, it is inevitable that some young people will get more ill and some might die in coming weeks. But as far as I recall almost all the recent deaths have been over 50s and its a long time since I recall an England hospital death case younger than 40. So I hope are not going to see spiralling hospital admissions and death numbers in coming weeks.

But it is of course very possible that will change as the season does.

However, I do think we will have one of our lowest ever flu death winters coming as more than ever will get vaccinated and our now innate self protection (hand washing etc) will be as effective at stopping flu spreading as covid.

So that will mitigate any 'second wave' in terms of death numbers this winter.
 
I'd re-open schools as they would normally in September, put back shielding for over 60s and vulnerable people and close pubs. It's more damaging to children to have their education disrupted and if we are now in the phase of opening up and accepting more infections and dealing with local hotspots, then they have to be the priority over people who want a pint or a meal out.
 
This weeks ONS study of how many in the community have Covid at any one time show a levelling off from last week. With estimated 28,000 in England currently having it (0.05 of the population - around one in 2000).

That would suggest, if true, that the rise in case numbers is mostly down to better targetted testing and increaed numbers of tests. Yesterday's debacle aside.
 
Also in the current data (to 12 Aug) the following countries in Europe are the only ones with fewer cases per head than the UK

Italy, Germany, Austria, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Leichtestein

The other 21 countries are all worse. Some much worse.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Theirs more to this whole charade now.
The tourism and travel sector is finished.
Their is statistically more people week on week now dying of the flu than cv19.
Week by week we are getting state controlled and our democracy ebbing away.
Yes we have had a pandemic but now is the time to get in with life and learn to live with it.
Why is the uk government not doing this, have they a masterplan for the future and changing the way we live?
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You cannot be serious with such drivel
 
BlueAnorak said:
Well it's been confirmed by study after study (Denmark, Switzerland, etc) that younger children can catch it but thst most are asymmptomatic, with very few becoming very ill and children also don't pass it on much.
So not much to worry about on that score I think.
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American scientists say the over tens spread it the same rate as adults do
 
grunge said:
No, Its not. Our behaviour is different resulting in less viral load, and Viral load is a major factor in the severity of illness, there is also the demographic of who is infacted.

Virologists are on the record A LOT stating it takes years/decades for viruses to weaken.
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This is a totally new virus and there are experts who are saying it’s got weaker.

Whatever the case, the flu is killing more as it stands so let’s open up schools and the economy further hey?
 
cleavers said:
We have no idea how many caught it in March/April though, we only know how many tested positive, from relatively low test numbers. Now somewhere around 1000 per day are testing positive from generally >100,000 tests per day (so around 99,000 are testing negative, many of who must of some symptoms).

The virus is just as infectious (see the sandwich company in Northampton), but less are being infected because socially we are all behaving differently.

Also we now have a better idea how to treat those that get the more serious infections, and they are spending less time in hospital, and less are getting the most serious illness. None of this makes the virus weaker, but it all adds up to make it look weaker.
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Infections are going up from the end of lockdown, even from June, not just March and April.
 
Ban-jani said:
This is a totally new virus and there are experts who are saying it’s got weaker.

Whatever the case, the flu is killing more as it stands so let’s open up schools and the economy further hey?
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It is a winter virus essentially ,with the measures we have taken less are dying,it will come back stronger in the winter ,get your head out of the sand
 
Ban-jani said:
Infections are going up from the end of lockdown, even from June, not just March and April.
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True - but the number of tests carried out has risen from an average of around 120K per day in June to 140 K in July and 170K in August. That has inevitably impacted on the number of cases discovered.
 
cleavers said:
We have no idea how many caught it in March/April though, we only know how many tested positive, from relatively low test numbers. Now somewhere around 1000 per day are testing positive from generally >100,000 tests per day (so around 99,000 are testing negative, many of who must of some symptoms).

The virus is just as infectious (see the sandwich company in Northampton), but less are being infected because socially we are all behaving differently.

Also we now have a better idea how to treat those that get the more serious infections, and they are spending less time in hospital, and less are getting the most serious illness. None of this makes the virus weaker, but it all adds up to make it look weaker.
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There’s more catching it but less in hospital and serious conditions and dying... which means either the healthier are the ones getting it or it’s getting weaker.
 
Healdplace said:
True - but the number of tests carried out has risen from an average of around 120K per day in June to 140 K in July and 170K in August. That has inevitably impacted on the number of cases discovered.
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You’re quite right but the spikes in particular reasons say to me that infections have been going up in real terms.

The way to measure this virus accurately is sadly deaths I think, which are very low still.
 
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