COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

You’re quite right but the spikes in particular reasons say to me that infections have been going up in real terms.

The way to measure this virus accurately is sadly deaths I think, which are very low still.

The spikes have to be controlled and that requires better responses than we seem to have had so far. So yes there is a risk of them turning into a growing problem. But outbreaks in local settings were an inevitable consequence of the necessary balance between not destroying the country by locking down until we have a vaccine and going back to normal and letting it run rampant.

IF - and I agree it is an if - we are able to target and control these outbreaks we should be able to manage.

But it needs efficiency and accurate data and boots on the ground policing breaches of the rules.

And at the moment I am not sure we are at that point of seeing these things winning the day so the risk will be there undoubtedly.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I can’t wait until winter when the 2nd wave doesn’t come and Karen has to hold her hands up and say she was wrong. No doubt she will spin it though so she was right! Maybe she should have been a politician.

no chance she'll admit to being in the wrong, the constant negative doom seems a hobby of hers

 

[Healdplace]

Wales update

O deaths happily again. It was 7 last Friday.

18 new cases (0.33% of tests) Almost identical to last Friday - 17 cases and 0.3%.

But that is 83 cases from Scotland and Wales v 60 last Friday.

 

[blueparrot]

It is a winter virus essentially ,with the measures we have taken less are dying,it will come back stronger in the winter ,get your head out of the sand

We don't know it's a winter virus, the prevalence in hot countries and states suggest it may well not be.

 

[cleavers]

True - but the number of tests carried out has risen from an average of around 120K per day in June to 140 K in July and 170K in August. That has inevitably impacted on the number of cases discovered.

Also tests are now taking place more where infections are known, so areas with spikes are seeing more testing than those areas with low levels of cases.

There’s more catching it but less in hospital and serious conditions and dying... which means either the healthier are the ones getting it or it’s getting weaker.

Yes I acknowledged cases are going up, the lowest was July 8th at 545 (7 day average), a month later that was 830, that's gone up, but in a population of 67,000,000 it's a tiny rise.

It's not getting weaker, it's a virus it doesn't change much over long periods, human behaviour changes that's all.

It was doubling inside 3 days in late March, 794 on 24th, to 1367 on 27th, and 2373 on 30th, and that was with little testing going on, so only those admitted to hospital pretty much. It'll do that again if unchecked, and that would knock onto death numbers eventually.

 

[cleavers]

We don't know it's a winter virus, the prevalence in hot countries and states suggest it may well not be.

In fact the middle east, and southern US states more than suggest it's not, even in Europe some countries (Spain/Malta) have rising cases in their hottest weather.

 

[grunge]

This is a totally new virus and there are experts who are saying it’s got weaker.

No there arn't. not virologists anyways.

and its not a "totally new" virus, its a new coronavirus, and there will have been tons of studies on the coronovirus family. How it interacts with us is new. how they behave as an entity will be similar to other coronoaviruses

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 8 with 1 from yesterday and 3 from the NW.

Last Friday it was 10 with 1 from day before and 0 from the NW.

I think this is the lowest Friday number.

 

[Healdplace]

So the England data is as follows:

13 Aug = 1

12 Aug adds 1 and - 2 after two days.

11 Aug adds 4 and = 10 after 3 days (highest 3rd day total in 9 days) ....9 of those 10 added in last 48 hours.

10 Aug adds 1 = 6 after four days.

9 Aug adds 0 = 5 after five days.

(The other death was on 5 Aug taking it to 5)

 

[Ban-jani]

No there arn't. not virologists anyways.

and its not a "totally new" virus, its a new coronavirus, and there will have been tons of studies on the coronovirus family.

Tell that to Professor Matteo Bassetti, head of infectious diseases at a hospital in Italy.

 

[mosssideblue]

I can’t wait until winter when the 2nd wave doesn’t come and Karen has to hold her hands up and say she was wrong. No doubt she will spin it though so she was right! Maybe she should have been a politician.

Conversely, will you be the first on here to say you were wrong should the winter 2nd wave arrives, or will you put some spin on it?

 

[Healdplace]

So the run of the last 17 five day totals is (24 Jul - 9 Aug) 5, 7, 10, 7, 7, 4, 3, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 3, 6, 4, 5, 5 - a total of just 21 deaths have been added to those totals since 28 July when the first one reached 5 days. So just over 1 on average to each 5 day total. They are not shooting up. And the only one of those single figure numbers no longer in single figurss is the 7 from 25 Jul which is now 11. And 7 of those totals are still what they were after 5 days.

 

[grunge]

Tell that to Professor Matteo Bassetti, head of infectious diseases at a hospital in Italy.

no surprise the 1st hit though when you google him is the Dail fail, the bastion of misrepresentation., no surprises they edited his comments.

Coronavirus is weakening and may die out without a vaccine, expert claims

He said the virus was changing in severity over the past four weeks.

metro.co.uk

‘Even elderly patients, aged 80 or 90, are now sitting up in bed and they are breathing without help. ‘The same patients would have died in two or three days before.’ He said he thought the virus was changing in severity over the past four weeks, which meant it could be weakening. Prof Bassetti added there could be several explanations for this, including lockdowns causing people to be exposed to smaller doses of Covid-19.

 

[Vic]

We were well below average for most of the time before the outbreak too.

View attachment 223

But wasn't it a slack year for the flu?

 

[Healdplace]

This means that the UK hospital death total is just the England 8. Which I am fairly certain is the lowest yet on a Friday.

Last week for comparison it was 17 (so today is less than half).

That became 98 with the all settings total and 81 out of hospital deaths added. But given the changes made to measuring deaths out of hospital in past days that number will be likely much lower tonight.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I disagree mate, infections are going up but not deaths, since lockdown ended the spike in deaths hasn’t been that great at all, I think it weakening, which is typical for a virus.

Or vulnerable people aren’t getting it but the healthy are? Bit of both maybe?

Either way it’s good news.

Deaths from the number of people admitted to hospital in the UK have come down because:
1. The centralised NHS is shit at treating any diseases which don't have a treatment policy. We now do have a policy.
2. Major advances have been made in treating the virus. From anticoagulants to use of old rheumatoid arthritis medicines, blood plasma from survivors, monoclonal antibodies and antiviral drugs.

 

[Healdplace]

Btw the England 5 day death total over the past 4 full weeks averages as follows

13 19 Jul just under 12

20 - 26 Jul just under 9

27 Jul - 2 Aug 5.5

3 - 9 Aug 5.5

It may well be difficult to go much or as visibly fast as of late below this kind of figure.

 

[Vic]

no surprise the 1st hit though when you google him is the Dail fail, the bastion of misrepresentation., no surprises they edited his comments.

Coronavirus is weakening and may die out without a vaccine, expert claims

He said the virus was changing in severity over the past four weeks.

metro.co.uk

Well that's a theory that's been knocking around a while. Let's hope he's right but other factors could be involved - maybe masks do reduce the viral load when an infected person is going round. And we have more and better treatments (not Trump's snake oil).

The trouble is not knowing whether it is weakening (good) or that continuing measures are merely suppressing it until (say) winter (bad).

 

[BlueAnorak]

American scientists say the over tens spread it the same rate as adults do

But they can ware masks and social distance. Oh...

 

[Ban-jani]

no surprise the 1st hit though when you google him is the Dail fail, the bastion of misrepresentation., no surprises they edited his comments.

Coronavirus is weakening and may die out without a vaccine, expert claims

He said the virus was changing in severity over the past four weeks.

metro.co.uk

It wasn’t the Mail actually and don’t patronise me, it was the Telegraph.

The quote is what I am saying, if you go back and read it, you’ll see I haven’t disputed there being multiple factors that could be affecting its strength.