COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

You’re quite right but the spikes in particular reasons say to me that infections have been going up in real terms.

The way to measure this virus accurately is sadly deaths I think, which are very low still.

The spikes have to be controlled and that requires better responses than we seem to have had so far. So yes there is a risk of them turning into a growing problem. But outbreaks in local settings were an inevitable consequence of the necessary balance between not destroying the country by locking down until we have a vaccine and going back to normal and letting it run rampant.

IF - and I agree it is an if - we are able to target and control these outbreaks we should be able to manage.

But it needs efficiency and accurate data and boots on the ground policing breaches of the rules.

And at the moment I am not sure we are at that point of seeing these things winning the day so the risk will be there undoubtedly.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I can’t wait until winter when the 2nd wave doesn’t come and Karen has to hold her hands up and say she was wrong. No doubt she will spin it though so she was right! Maybe she should have been a politician.

no chance she'll admit to being in the wrong, the constant negative doom seems a hobby of hers

 

[Healdplace]

Wales update

O deaths happily again. It was 7 last Friday.

18 new cases (0.33% of tests) Almost identical to last Friday - 17 cases and 0.3%.

But that is 83 cases from Scotland and Wales v 60 last Friday.

 

[blueparrot]

It is a winter virus essentially ,with the measures we have taken less are dying,it will come back stronger in the winter ,get your head out of the sand

We don't know it's a winter virus, the prevalence in hot countries and states suggest it may well not be.

 

[cleavers]

True - but the number of tests carried out has risen from an average of around 120K per day in June to 140 K in July and 170K in August. That has inevitably impacted on the number of cases discovered.

Also tests are now taking place more where infections are known, so areas with spikes are seeing more testing than those areas with low levels of cases.

There’s more catching it but less in hospital and serious conditions and dying... which means either the healthier are the ones getting it or it’s getting weaker.

Yes I acknowledged cases are going up, the lowest was July 8th at 545 (7 day average), a month later that was 830, that's gone up, but in a population of 67,000,000 it's a tiny rise.

It's not getting weaker, it's a virus it doesn't change much over long periods, human behaviour changes that's all.

It was doubling inside 3 days in late March, 794 on 24th, to 1367 on 27th, and 2373 on 30th, and that was with little testing going on, so only those admitted to hospital pretty much. It'll do that again if unchecked, and that would knock onto death numbers eventually.

 

[cleavers]

We don't know it's a winter virus, the prevalence in hot countries and states suggest it may well not be.

In fact the middle east, and southern US states more than suggest it's not, even in Europe some countries (Spain/Malta) have rising cases in their hottest weather.

 

[grunge]

This is a totally new virus and there are experts who are saying it’s got weaker.

No there arn't. not virologists anyways.

and its not a "totally new" virus, its a new coronavirus, and there will have been tons of studies on the coronovirus family. How it interacts with us is new. how they behave as an entity will be similar to other coronoaviruses

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 8 with 1 from yesterday and 3 from the NW.

Last Friday it was 10 with 1 from day before and 0 from the NW.

I think this is the lowest Friday number.

 

[Healdplace]

So the England data is as follows:

13 Aug = 1

12 Aug adds 1 and - 2 after two days.

11 Aug adds 4 and = 10 after 3 days (highest 3rd day total in 9 days) ....9 of those 10 added in last 48 hours.

10 Aug adds 1 = 6 after four days.

9 Aug adds 0 = 5 after five days.

(The other death was on 5 Aug taking it to 5)

 

[Ban-jani]

No there arn't. not virologists anyways.

and its not a "totally new" virus, its a new coronavirus, and there will have been tons of studies on the coronovirus family.

Tell that to Professor Matteo Bassetti, head of infectious diseases at a hospital in Italy.