Is the lockdown likely to be extended? Trying to think positively but I just can't see the lockdown ending a week on Monday
Neil Ferguson, one of the government's advisers said on Radio 4 that 'I'm hopeful that in a few weeks' time we will be able to move to a regime which - will not be normal life, let me emphasize that - but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social-distancing and the economy but rely more on testing.'
mo, if mass testing and tracing comes on line, then the lockdown will be eased but it might take 3 weeks or so for that to happen.
Medium term, and this is speculative, I think the American government may go for an emergency use authorisation for a vaccine by the FDA. I was wondering why governments can't bypass their own rules regarding vaccine development and there already seems to be provision for this in the USA and in the EU but this is just based on my own research as interpretation of 'emergency use authorisation'. Other people might like to look at it, and see what they think. Media seems to think that even if we have a working vaccine it still needs to go through very lengthy trials. I am wondering if it's labelled as a pandemic and it goes through Phase II trials, they maybe able to authorise its use.
If testing has it under control then this wont be needed but the next thing to worry about are places like India and Indonesia. Potentially that's catastrophic and on another scale from what we have seen.
Potentially good news is that tests in Iceland have shown that at least 50% of infected people are asymptomatic which has been hinted at before. That has good and bad implications, but a good implication is that immunity will be higher than we think it is.
All these comments are just opinions not facts!
