COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[robbieh]

and yet the number of death related cases had already started to fall a week before lockdown in England. Go figure.

Not quite sure what you mean. As of 13th March Greece had 1 recorded death. Subsequently it has risen to 143.

 

[purplenose]

This,we assumed immunity,nearly four months on an nobody will confirm immunity still and this virus is throwing up surprises everyday

Exactly imagine having let the thing run through the population killing many tens of thousands more than it has, only to discover it came back a year later if not before promptly reinfecting thousands who had had it last time and killing the same amount again.

That was the risk some very high level people were advocating. That worries me greatly.

 

[SWP's back]

A very slanted and one-eyed article that seems more concerned with making points about the constitution than with people's wellbeing.

Was a fucking idiotic thing to post.

 

[robbieh]

I'd imagine Spain Italy France and the UK have a hell of a lot more people visiting them than Greece in February and March too.

Probably true, but as I say they started taking action as soon as the first case, not first death, occurred. They had taken notice of first China and later Italy and made the decision to keep the numbers as low as possible.

In addition they can if they keep their borders closed start with the new normal a earlier and more safely than we are going to do.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Karen, let's do some very easy maths together ok?

Im going to use the term mean.


1) What is the mean time between infection and symptoms?
2) What is the mean time between symptoms and death?

answer 1) 5 days
answer 2) 18 days

add them together = 23 days.

So from catching it to dying takes on average 23 days.


3) When did the most people in English hospitals die from covid (the peak)?

answer 3) 8th April.

4) when did they catch it?

answer 4) 23 days before the 8th April which is 16th of March

Here comes the big one!

When did the UK go into "lockdown"?

I'll let you answer that yourself and see if you can draw any conclusions.

I apologise in advance for wandering into the middle of this but what is your conclusion based on the timescales you outlined?

 

[Scottyboi]

Probably true, but as I say they started taking action as soon as the first case, not first death, occurred. They had taken notice of first China and later Italy and made the decision to keep the numbers as low as possible.

In addition they can if they keep their borders closed start with the new normal a earlier and more safely than we are going to do.

All plays a huge part though which makes it difficult to try and compare small nations doing well to countries like the UK and USA. 1000s of people landing every hour travelling into your cities, countries scared of being the first one to make a major call to put travel bans in place and commit economic suicide.

We are trying to make simple answers to very complex situations.

 

[Manc in London]

A tiny percentage of young and/or healthy have died. Much fewer than a typical Flu causes in those groups.

I had no idea. Interesting to know.

 

[BlueAnorak]

A tiny percentage of young and/or healthy have died. Much fewer than a typical Flu causes in those groups.

That's not quite right. Yes COVID-19 disproportinately effects the old but Flu deaths normally occur in this same age group.
Average flu kills 0.1% (without lockdown) whereas COVID-19 kills around 0.6% (with lockdown).Worse it spreads so quickly that deaths are concentrated over a short term period 2 months or so rather than 6 months.
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

[SWP's back]

and yet the number of death related cases had already started to fall a week before lockdown in England. Go figure.

And then started to rise again.

 

[Blue Potato]

Total deaths in Italy for the month of March 49.4% higher than the average over the previous 5 years. Further breakdown by location in this thread: