COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Just watched Hospital prog from last night , how they are coping with the second wave , they think it will be as bad as the first one but aside from that the three patients they followed and were on trials did well, a cancer patient recovered and two survived intensive care and went home

What the nhs does for us is amazing , i recommend watching these doco's
 
Healdplace said:
616 deaths is sadly higher than I had hoped. Out of hospital deaths still a problem.

Should be a sobering reminder that the vaccine is not magic and saved no lives yet.

But cases down to 12, 282
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Indeed! Though I think we need to remember that it won't really be until February at earliest that we see any real impact from the vaccine. It's wonderful news, but it does take time to 1) actually give a dose, given the two doses are basically a month apart and 2) get it to many people. I'm dreading idiots going 'why aren't things changing yet?' in a week or so already.
 
England hospital data is not quite as good as it was last week, Adding to the concerns that we have bottomed out and might be already going the other way.


SUN/MON/TUE Patients 12, 241 / 12, 651 / 12, 603 was 12, 609 last Tuesday. A rise on Monday after weekend before admissions is common.

Ventilated patients: 1087 / 1109 / 1118 was 1182 last Tuesday. Not good news either.
 
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Oxford/AstraZeneca interim readout published in the Lancet.


Short version: it works, but not enough data to confidently choose the optimal dose regime. 62% for standard first dose, 90% for low first dose, but overlapping confidence intervals.

First data from any vaccine vs asymptomatic infection: as well as 90% efficacy vs symptomatic, asymptomatic infections significantly lower in the lower first dose arm (60% efficacious against asymptomatic vs 4% for standard dose)

My guess: interim approval with the low dose regime, conditional on confirmation with larger cohort.

[postscript - excellent data vs severe disease - no severe cases at all on active arm beyond 21 days post first dose]
 
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mosssideblue said:
I've seen a man under extreme pressure, never ducking interviews no matter what shit was being thrown at him.

Today is a huge milestone for all. Why not celebrate it rather than be critical of a person showing emotion
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Yet refused to answer questions regarding nurses pay and mp pay rises.... probably tears of joy knowing how much he’ll make on the sale of shares he owns in big Pharma.
He’s a ****.
 
twosips said:
Indeed! Though I think we need to remember that it won't really be until February at earliest that we see any real impact from the vaccine. It's wonderful news, but it does take time to 1) actually give a dose, given the two doses are basically a month apart and 2) get it to many people. I'm dreading idiots going 'why aren't things changing yet?' in a week or so already.
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It't the same idiots who meet in large groups, don't wear masks, go in and out of people's houses and suggest that Delap will play tomorrow
 
Manc in London said:
Like Kyle Walker, Rita Ora, Dominic Cummings and Robert Jenrick? Has anyone actually been sacked for breaking the rules? I cannot think of any instances off the top of my head.

Amusing that people compare it to what Cummings and politicians were caught doing. Firstly, she was not involved in developing the rules/restrictions. Secondly, she went to dinner with people she works with so comes into contact with them regularly. Does Covid19 only spread outside of the workplace? Yes, it is not within the rules but there are far worse ways in which we can break the rules.

Honestly, cannot see the problem.
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Because when she comes on tv having ago at someone for breaking the rules it willl come straight back at her.
 
Regional England hospital data SUN/MON/TODAY P Patients V Ventilated v a week ago in brackets

LONDON P 1591/ 1632 / 1666 (was 1548) V 242/ 244/ 249 (was 259)- London still slowly but relentlessly rising

MIDLANDS P 2802/ 2856/ 2823 (was 2842) V 259/ 262/ 272 (was 274) - Also mostly not looking up not down

NE/YORKS P 2468/ 2524/2472 (was 2709) V 172/ 175/ 173 (was 185) - More stall than rise or fall.

AND

NORTH WEST

P 2201 / 2362 / 2279 (was 2446) Biggest rise and biggest fall after it but still up on 2 days and lower fall week to week than Yorks - though the gap above London has fallen by a third in the week.

V 167 / 179 / 170 (was 174). Again biggest rise but a lower fall though still below the other three regions and last week. Signs for caution I would say as to where this goes from here.

Especially as Tier 3 should not be increasing things if it is as good as the recent lockdown - which I suspect it is not.
 
city2 said:
So which will be the better vaccine or does it not matter
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We don't have enough data to say, plus it depends what you mean by "better". Comparative conclusions on treatments should be done with extreme caution unless done head to head in the same study -the populations, study design geography and endpoint criteria differ between the studies.

Prevention of all symptoms, all are good, Pfizer and Moderna look better
Prevention of severe disease, all are very good, the data looks comparable between them (numbers of severe cases in all the trials are low, and entirely on the control arms)
Prevention of asymptomatic disease (maybe a surrogate for transmission??) the only data is from Oxford/AZ.
Prevention of transmission, we can only guess.
Logistics/cold chain, Pfizer is worst, Oxford/AZ best and Moderna inbetween.
Cost, Oxford/AZ is far the lowest, Pfizer and Moderna much more expensive
Availability, Oxford/AZ look to have far more volume available than the others, both UK and worldwide

Just my personal view based (except for Oxford/AZ) on press release data, so treat with due scepticism. I'd put availability as the most important criterion right now.

Short version: it doesn't matter. Crack on as fast as possible.
 
kaz7 said:
The Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine is safe and effective, independent analysis has confirmed.

Researchers say the jab will have a "big impact" on the coronavirus pandemic.


The study, published in the Lancet, is the first peer-reviewed analysis looking into phase 3 data from a vaccine trial.

Scientists working on the vaccine stressed the importance of "transparency" and data sharing within the scientific community.

news.sky.com

COVID 19: Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is safe and effective, independent analysis finds

Researchers say the jab will have a "big impact" on the pandemic and hope it will be approved for use in the UK "within weeks".
news.sky.com news.sky.com

What a brilliant day this is turning out to be
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Great news, if its safe at whatever dose they just need to approve it and roll it out at the dose and half surely? Why delay and do more trials while people are dying from covid? if its safe its safe.
 
Regional Scoreboard shows NW the only major area to RISE despite the big drop in cases.


It is only by 3 but nonetheless. So the slight concerns about the NW stalling and potentially rising again noticed in the past few days in my GM reports are not assauged here.

LONDON 2203 - down from 2460.

MIDLANDS 1065 - down from 1334

NORTH EAST 406 - down from 466 to one of its lowest scores in months.

YORKSHIRE 837 - down from 997 to one of its lowest scores in months too.

Which makes the NW start to look more concerning that it might to buck this trend. Though only by standing still.

NORTH WEST 1154 - up from 1151.

But now as you can see today the highest of the regions 'up north'. And over half the total of London for first time in some days.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Great news, if its safe at whatever dose they just need to approve it and roll it out at the dose and half surely? Why delay and do more trials while people are dying from covid? if its safe its safe.
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The review started on the 27th Nov according to MHRA website. Given the timeline for the Pfizer review, could be as soon as later this week (just a guess), but certainly before Christmas to get an output.

I think it's fair to say that the efficacy data on the lower dose is on a sufficiently small cohort as to not be a reliable indication - the confidence interval overlaps with the higher dose. If it's genuinely more efficacious I would guess there is some risk of more adverse events too, and the number on the dose is much lower, so the safety database is much lower.

All that needs to be carefully considered in the light of all the evidence from all the earlier trials, preclinical data and possibly literature data on the safety profile of this sort of vaccine before deciding what dose to approve.

This is why we need regulators - so that's done independently by people with expertise in all of this.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The review started on the 27th Nov according to MHRA website. Given the timeline for the Pfizer review, could be as soon as later this week (just a guess), but certainly before Christmas to get an output.

I think it's fair to say that the efficacy data on the lower dose is on a sufficiently small cohort as to not be a reliable indication - the confidence interval overlaps with the higher dose. If it's genuinely more efficacious I would guess there is some risk of more adverse events too, and the number on the dose is much lower, so the safety database is much lower.

All that needs to be carefully considered in the light of all the evidence from all the earlier trials, preclinical data and possibly literature data on the safety profile of this sort of vaccine before deciding what dose to approve.

This is why we need regulators - so that's done independently by people with expertise in all of this.
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I agree and you clearly clearly know more than I in this field. However, if the regulator agrees its safe at either dose as that report says then its doesn't matter, they just need to approve and get it rolled out. Delaying it needlessly to see which is the more effective does will surely result in more deaths in the interim, just go with one and half jabs? That's the point i was trying to make. Cheers
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
what are the axis measuring?

See Oxford had 2 notable problematic events associated with it, would like to see more explanation on those going forward. Let's see how Pfizer does in the real world.
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According to the data published in the Lancet today, there were three suspected cases of transverse myelitis on the trial.

One was on the placebo arm, two on the active.

Of the two on the active arm, one was ruled out as vaccine related (pre-existing multiple sclerosis). The other was not definitively ascribed either way. All recovering or recovered.


We don't yet have the same level of data on the other trials.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Thank you. I'll give H&B a look next time. Heard about Zinc too, sure BlueAnorak has mentioned it on here as being worthwhile.
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Vit D
Vit C + Zinc
Echinacea
Asprin - 75mg ( so long as you're not an asprin
sensitive asthmatic).

Also GET yourself an Oxygenation sensor (about £13) stick you finger in regularly and if you drop below 95% for more than 20 mins call an ambulance. This is why Germany doess so well. Ill folks register themselves with a surgery and they get a visit from the oxygen checker. Early warning = better survival rate. UK Hospitals now put you on a CPAP machine (like I have upstairs for sleep apnea) and it brings your oxygen level up.
 
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