COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[artfuldodger]

Johnson threatening “intervention” in Manchester.

Meet up at Peterloo anyone?

Thats exactly what I said to my brother in law this morning. Peterloo all over again. I'm polishing my musket....

 

[Scottyboi]

 

[Oels]

Wales have added a whole host of areas where residents are not allowed to travel from.
They have lifted restrictions on crossing county lines for children's sports and activities!

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Regional numbers;

London patients up 53 to 457 (wk ago 326) Vents up 2 to 80 (wk ago 50)

Midlands patients up 43 to 801 (wk ago 489) Vents up 4 to 95 (wk ago 76)

NE/Yorks patients 1114 - 1132 (wk ago 777) Vent down 118 to 107 (wk ago 90)


And North West

patients up 95 (most in UK) to 1637 (wk ago 1105) Vent up 149 to 152 (wk ago 122)


That to me seems to show NW adding most patients in total in 24 hrs again and having about 50% more ventilator patients than any other region.

Why are these numbers not aligned with the ones mentioned in the posts above about hospital data improving?

Look at admissions not total patients. 20 fewer patients admitted today than yesterday and only 15 more than October 4th.

 

[Chippy_boy]

50 million+ will be infected.

In terms of seriousness of symptoms; asymptomatic rate estimates seem to vary wildly and doubtless by age. I've no idea. Perhaps you do?

I've seen estimates as high as 10% needing hospitalisation. That would be 2,000 a day at the moment, given ~20,000 cases a day. Let's check... last daily admissions were ~800 which will reflect last week's positive tests, due to the lag to admissions, so perhaps 10% of positive tests isn't too far off. Postive tests are perhaps 50% of actual infections, I think? And remember the outbreak currently is in low risk groups predominently.

So let's say 5% hospitalisation is a reasonable guess. That's 2.5 *million* people in hospital, a tenth of those dying.

Is this sounding like getting back to normality to you?

I'm not sure of your maths, but of the consequences, I do agree. If the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Is somewhere around 0.3% to 0.4% as recent studies have suggested, then do that maths. If (ultimately) everyone gets infected then that's 67m x 0.3% = 200,000 to 270,000 dead. Or "a bad day at the office" as it is called.

 

[Healdplace]

I agree that admissions are one indicator. But those in hospital day to day with Covid rising as they are means more are going in than are coming out by discharge or death. So whilst admissions will fluctuate day to day the trend over time of how many are in with Covid is surely a better guide to which direction hospitalisation numbers from Covid are going?

 

[kaz7]

You just need to give people the facts and let them decide what they’re going to do. Biggest risk of death is age, then it’s age plus being poorer, then it’s age, being poorer and having co-morbidities.
Some of the worse conditions to have are: cancer, chronic kidney disease, COPD, being a solid organ transplant recipient, diabetes, being fat and smoking fags. Dementia is often listed on the death certificates as a contributory cause.

People need to consider how many of the above apply to them and work out their level of risk before deciding on going out.
If you’re under 70, aren’t enormous, don’t smoke and don’t have any of the conditions I’ve listed, you’ll probably be ok going out.

Of course, if you’re 85 and got lots of those things you were at enormous risk before coronavirus but your death wouldn’t have made the news..

BAME community are the highest risk

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

BAME community are the highest risk

No they aren’t.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional scoreboard seems reasonable news as most places are down.

London 1394 - down from 1843

Midlands 1696 - up from 1240

North East 1178 - down from 1333

Yorkshire 1755 - down from 2515 biggest % fall of day.

And North West 3324 - down from 4252 - lowest NW numbers in a week.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I agree that admissions are one indicator. But those in hospital day to day with Covid rising as they are means more are going in than are coming out by discharge or death. So whilst admissions will fluctuate day to day the trend over time of how many are in with Covid is surely a better guide to which direction hospitalisation numbers from Covid are going?

You’d think so and, for the summer I’d imagine that was true. However, there will now be patients being admitted with Covid plus another respiratory ailment. A recent study suggested Covid and flu together would double the time in hospital. Not only that, nosocomial infections are also driving the ‘patients in hospital‘ number. Up to 24% of Covid patients are catching it in hospital. Go in for a hip replacement an and catch it and you are added to the in hospital with Covid numbers.