COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

1657, 3019, 1888, 1542, 1845, 941, 1455, 1533, 1445, 1521, 1515, 1619 are the last 12 days GM totals which are apparently doubling Boris has just claimed.

I must not be very good at maths as that does not look anything like what I call doubling. (The 3000 was the day they added all the cases they lost btw).

It is not falling but it is pretty obviously not escalating rapidly either.

I think he was talking about admission and icu beds not cases

 

[sir baconface]

The phone-ins are full of people saying they are confused about the advice/regulations. No wonder. The differences between tier 1 and 2, and 2 and 3, are relatively minor. Even tier 3 is a limp-wristed option.

In that context the GM debate is little more than a base squabble about the level of government financial support.

In the meantime I could go down to my local tonight to meet a few mates (if I had any), offer the name M Mouse and give Andy Burnham’s telephone number.

 

[kaz7]

No they aren’t.

Coronavirus: Black men have higher coronavirus death rate than anyone else in England and Wales

White men and women have the lowest coronavirus-mortality rates of any ethnic group, other than Chinese men.

news.sky.com

 

[Healdplace]

What does have to be said though is that the % of cases in GM today of the North West total has increased over yesterday. Back over 40% again as the NW total fell quite a lot today.

Indeed the biggest fall seems to have been on Merseyside before their tier one status even started.

For the first time in a while Liverpool was just below Manchester - both fell today but Liverpool from 625 cases to 297 - their lowest in the 10 days I have been keeping score there.

Knowsley too had its lowest numbers in days and its pop score only went up 86 to 2947.

indeed Birmingham was top today for the first time in a while with 516 cases.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Scotland data. Bad again.

9 deaths

1196 cases

416 Greater Glasgow, 309 Lanarkshire, `161 Lothian. Only Shetland had no new cases.

16.9% positive.

629 in hospital (up 28 in day)

58 on ventilators (up 7 in day)

To be fair they've dropped 200 cases on yesterday.

 

[grunge]

It is impossible to know what the long term affects could/will be though from both the virus and the vaccine that is my only worry. It happened with MMR and it's happened with many others, until there is a better data set which can only come with time I wouldn't personally feel it was right to 'test' it out on a child.

Nothing happened with MMR past a greedy doctor making shit up for money.....

 

[Cityfan]

You have your infection rates mixed up

IFR is (deaths/ infections), whether or not non- fatal infections were detected. It is *not* affected by testing, but is age dependent. You would not, as @Chippy_boy says, expect this to be significantly different in a given age range second time around.

CFR is (deaths/ positive tests), Case fatality rate. That does change according to testing as you describe.

It might be different, the ITU mortality fell throughout the first wave, steroids appear to work well, we may find antibodies/convalescent plasma or possbily tocilizumab and general understanding of the disease and anticoagulation etc has probably helped.
There is a theory that lower inoculums due to distancing , masks etc may be bringing down mortality. Lets hope.

 

[kaz7]

This sums it up for me , boris is safe with a huge majority , four years till election and they wont want a leadership battle during a pandemic , stop playing politics with this ffs

But Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said "baseline" Tier 3 measures "almost certainly aren't enough" to get infection numbers down.

And asked if people would die as a result of the row between Downing Street and Manchester leaders, he said: "It is important to go quite fast on this... The sooner you do that the sooner you get this under control."

Todays briefing

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

That's supposition mate. No way anyone can demonstrate that yet.

It’s not supposition, there’s no genetic reason why that population are more affected. If you live in the most deprived areas you’re more likely to be in critical care with Covid. If you live in the least deprived you are the least likely. If you did a key worker job with no masks, poor PPE and lots of contact with virus riddled people you were much more likely to catch it.

PHE produced a report as well: The report stated that the disparity was due to the fact that ‘BAME people are more likely to live in urban areas, in overcrowded households, in deprived areas, and have jobs that expose them to higher risk. ‘People of BAME groups are also more likely than people of white British ethnicity to be born abroad, which means they may face additional barriers in accessing services that are created by, for example, cultural and language differences. ‘Secondly, people of BAME communities are also likely to be at increased risk of poorer outcomes once they acquire the infection.’

https://assets.publishing.service.g..._and_outcomes_of_COVID_August_2020_update.pdf

 

[BlueAnorak]

Only if you seal them all off and let nobody from the outside come in - like Wales plan to do.

A pandemic in a small island will not obey boundaries if the people carrying it choose to find reasons to go elsewhere for the weekend.

Nicola Sturgeon has spent ages this morning still trying to stop people from Glasgow travelling to Carlisle and Blackpool to watch a football match and even has people telling her to cancel it because it is such a risk.

If we had simple rapid testing to control outside access you can run this via local lockdowns. We dont. And we saw how well it worked for Greater Manchester making Wigan immune from the restrictions beause its numbers were so low.

The result was turning Wigan into a basket case that nobody saw coming. But likely should have.

Give over.
May as well lock the world down by that rational.
Only superspreader events are statistically significant to take it into a new area.