COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

I understand that you well appreciate the differences but I’m not sure that’s universally true.
Before anyone jumps in, I do know this isn’t ‘flu’ but we did have 27000+ deaths from flu and pneumonia in 2014/15 which equates to 200 a day, everyday. ICU’s were full and elective surgery was cancelled, because that’s what happens and it happens most years, to be honest.
I don’t seek to underplay COVID at all, but I do think we are now possibly entering the ‘cure being worse than the disease’ phase when we look at the demographics of those affected. The reality is that, if you’re over 80 in a ‘normal’ year, there is a 1 in 6 chance that you will not see out the following 12 months and those odds shrink every year.

Thank you. I appreciate that reply and I do not disagree. As you know I think that we would be much better off with a policy of far better well aimed guidance giving people the facts and more freedom to choose their own response to those facts within prescribed limits and protection from harm if they choose to be protected as advised.

The nanny state might work when you really need a nanny but rarely works when you are trying to keep a family happy and clothed, fed and with a future to look forward to.

I supported a circuit breaker if applied instead of this tier nonsense when it would have helped. But that boat sailed without us (not for the first time) and we need a new approach now. And wider discussion on what that is - not dictation of what must be because.....

 

[Healdplace]

Warrington in talks to enter tier 3.

This is starting to look like a Circuit breaker by slow drip feed - which is about the most useless type of circuit breaker.

 

[blueparrot]

Looks like that’s about how long antibodies last and SAGE seem to be completely ignoring T-Cell immunity, which many people will have had, so antibody vaccines look like all the rage.
It’ll cost more because people aren’t shit scared of the flu but everyone is terrified of coronavirus. Which circumstance do you think might drive a price differential? Of course, big pharma might have turned altruistic during this crisis but the fact that there is a race on suggests there will be a large profit at the end of it all.

The Oxford vaccine has T-cell response

The early-stage trial found that the coronavirus vaccine is safe and causes few side effects. It also induces strong immune responses in both parts of the immune system – provoking a T-cell response within 14 days of vaccination, and an antibody response within 28 days

Coronavirus: Oxford vaccine shows 'strong antibody and T-cell immune response'

The COVID-19 vaccine being developed at the University of Oxford is safe, preliminary results of the study suggest.

www.sciencefocus.com

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I understand that you well appreciate the differences but I’m not sure that’s universally true.
Before anyone jumps in, I do know this isn’t ‘flu’ but we did have 27000+ deaths from flu and pneumonia in 2014/15 which equates to 200 a day, everyday. ICU’s were full and elective surgery was cancelled, because that’s what happens and it happens most years, to be honest.
I don’t seek to underplay COVID at all, but I do think we are now possibly entering the ‘cure being worse than the disease’ phase when we look at the demographics of those affected. The reality is that, if you’re over 80 in a ‘normal’ year, there is a 1 in 6 chance that you will not see out the following 12 months and those odds shrink every year.

Elective surgery isn’t cancelled most years.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data is not good sadly.

7 deaths v 10 last week v 1 wk before

1134 cases - I think 14 short of highest ever v 727 last week v 638 wk before

At 10.1%

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 152. Terrible.

It was 81 last week.

60 from the NW (highest yet) v 23 last week.

Though the % of NW deaths is starting to come down as the wave spreads.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Elective surgery isn’t cancelled most years.

Really? 23,503 operations cancelled for non-clinical reasons, from October to December 2019, about 20% more than from April to June.
To be fair to the DHSC they did advise the hospitals to ”book fewer operations“ so the cancellations would be smaller in 17/18 but I’m not sure that’s a realistic strategy.

 

[Alex - City Matters]

What I would like to see is someone explain to the people of Greater Manchester what the last 3 months have been for and why the greater hardships they are being asked to go through for however many months it is then why will THESE (what look like modest) changes make the difference when the past 3 months seem only to have helped numbers go through the roof?

Is there ANY evidence that the restrictions in GM up to now have saved any lives or cut the numbers that would have been tested positive anyway?

Because I think that conversation needs to be had if this is all speculative.

I doubt the people of Wigan think that weeks of restrictions have in any way worked.

The question nobody seems to be asking is - if not, then why not? And why will it now be different under the new rules? And if so how?

That kind of honesty needs to be aired as I fear some think these are just doing something because something clearly has to be done and not because we are confident they will work.

Is GM a petri dish as Andy Burnham says? Or being shown the way to escape a bad second wave? Or just being used so it looks like the government is reacting to control the uncontrollable?

People will rally together and forgive a lot if they believe in what they are being asked to do but they rarely forgive dishonesty at their expense.

Unfortunately, you're not allowed to ask questions like that or you are "playing politics."

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data shows another big leap in the data to really scary recent totals. Way up on even last week.

These are without doubt the most worrying numbers since last April. They suggest we are heading into big trouble.



21 Oct adds 21 = 21 after one day. Highest deaths on past 24 hours since 3 June.

20 Oct adds 78 = 96 after two days, The last time 78 was added on day two was 21 May. The last time we had 96 deaths by day two was 26 May.

19 Oct adds 31 = 89 after three days. The last time the three day total was that high was 2 June.

18 Oct adds 5 = 72 after four days. Last time the four day total was this high 5 June.

17 Oct adds 11 = 117 after five days . This is more than double every other other five day total for months aside from the pst few days but it over 40 higher than even all but the preceding day and 31 higher than that total. The last time the five day total was this high was 26 May.

Others : - 16 Oct adds 3 = 89, 15 Oct adds 1 = 81, 12 Oct adds 1 = 68, 3 Sep adds 1 = 4 (That fact of going from 3 to 4 after 6/7 weeks tells you how far and fast the England hospital Covid death numbers have risen in the weeks sibce 3 Seo).

 

[Healdplace]

Unfortunately, you're not allowed to ask questions like that or you are "playing politics."

It is above politics. And need not even be in any way about parties. I think we likely should have created an all party war cabinet months ago.

But regardless we need now urgently a grown up conversation that avoids point scoring - this is what Britain needs to have.

We had endless national debates on Brexit where every shade of opinion was aired and the people got to decide.

We need a full TV debate now on what is the best thing to do over Covid.

Trust all round has been eroded. We need to reassert the concensus politics and civility Britain used to be proud of displaying

If those England deaths do not make that happen our democracy is in trouble. Because you cannot enforce laws people neither understand nor trust, And all politicians of whatever party need to come together now and put the nation first. And ask for guidance for a way forward the nation trusts.

Sadly I think there is probably a small round number chance of this happening.