COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kevin horlocks wand]

Anyone with limited intelligence could see weeks ago London should have gone into tier 3.

yep in just a week they have crossed 3 tiers and in that created a new one.

 

[oman0115]

Do we know what this new variation means for the vaccine?

Does the vaccine still stop it?

There is more than one type of flu jab am I correct, and they predict which one to use each year, so it's never 100% effective. Virus's change, so they can still exist, I imagine based on that there can't be a one sized fits all vaccine. Correct me if I am wrong? It's here now, and isn't going anywhere like all of the other coronvirus's out there, we ( well not us ) just need to find a better way of dealing with it and moving forward.

 

[BlueAnorak]

If it’s 70% more transmissible and was noted around mid November, how soon would that be showing up in deaths if it was more deadly?

3 weeks afterwards. Keep an eye on the ICU survival rates in the South East by age group. No increase per 100k so far.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Don't think that's right chief

None of the vaccines have been proven to stop transmission as yet

The efficacy is it stops xx% of people getting any symptoms

Oxford's % is still up in the air but it stops serious illness or death in 100% of cases in the trials

nothing to worry about with the vaccine at the moment

It isnt. I was talking bollox. I adjusted the last para. Too slowly it would appear. You can't compare herd immunity and vaccine efficacy.

 

[BlueAnorak]

If the new strain is 70% more infective than the old one that's an average R0 of 5 27 as opposed to 3.1.
That also means herd immunity is about 81%
Basic calculation is (1-(1/5.27))*100.
It also means herd iimmunity will be more difficult to achieve
As 81% of the population will have to be inocculated to reach heard immunity

Changed to as above.

 

[DenisLawBackHeel74]

No but we all knew winter would be bad , it was stupid to promise but that is him all over

This new variant is 70% more transmissable , blimey

We’ll see. My guess is that’s it’s less lethal but more transmissible.

 

[Len Rum]

OK we all know the Govt. aren't up to it.
But big questions have to be asked of Vallance and Whitty as to why they failed to stand up and be counted and allowed the Govt. under the cover of following the science to get to this point.

 

[kaz7]

Nicola is up

New variant suggests this is a very serious situation , the most dangerous so far

Firm action needed now , preventative measures needed

Not as bad in scotland as elsewhere but they do have some of the variant in scotland

No evidence it will be more deadly or affect the vaccines but it can put up the R by 0.4

She hopes people accept the measures , she wishes she had acted sooner in feb/march

Encourages people to redouble their efforts

Travel ban , unless necessary, staying in place over the holidays. Non essential international travel discouraged

Indoor mixing in bubble dec 25 th only , stay outside as much as possible , do not stay overnight if possible

 

[kaz7]

OK we all know the Govt. aren't up to it.
But big questions have to be asked of Vallance and Whitty as to why they failed to stand up and be counted and allowed the Govt. under the cover of following the science to get to this point.

Because science advises and gov decide , whitty has said that all along

 

[Len Rum]

Sturgeon now admitting she didn't act quickly enough in late Feb/early March.
I don't rate her at all but at the truth drug is kicking in and she's being honest.
Time for BloJo to do the same.