COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[blueparrot]

Useful data there. Thanks for posting.

Sad data, but what I can take from that is if we can get over 60s vaccinated quickly, we can eradicate the vast majority of deaths.

 

[simon29040]

healdplace is doing a good job plenty of useful data here

 

[chesterbells]

Sad data, but what I can take from that is if we can get over 60s vaccinated quickly, we can eradicate the vast majority of deaths.

Yes, that’s what I was getting at, the demographic breakdown. I mean it’s nothing new, but it just reinforces that whatever strain we are talking about, that’s what we need to do. By Easter I’d expect all over 70s to have had the vaccine, hopefully all over 60s...

 

[Healdplace]

Unfortunately there is little doubt we are now in a third wave following the one that peaked in early November. And this is already surpassing the peak of that second wave.

The last few five day totals just in England hospitals have either been over 300 already or have been close enough that they did so in the next day or two.

There was never a run like that in the autumn wave and 21 December is already at 340 deaths - well above the highest number we had in the autumn.

Let us hope these numbers do not keep on climbing as that would put the NHS under huge pressure in January.

The total England only deaths for the last 4 days after 5 days to let them become reasonably complete versus the same four days in past month is as follows:-

1178 - 1025 - 982 - 1075 - 1228

Showing the fall from the second wave peak that was short lived in November and has now escalated into a third wave already higher

This is with the peak two months for elderly deaths via all conditions (Jan/Feb) to come.

IF these numbers start to significantly fall and not escalate in January and February as we ramp up the vaccination of the vulnerable that will be a good sign the vaccines really ARE preventing deaths.

Bearing in mind deaths always trail infections by several weeks.

 

[blueparrot]

Yes, that’s what I was getting at, the demographic breakdown. I mean it’s nothing new, but it just reinforces that whatever strain we are talking about, that’s what we need to do. By Easter I’d expect all over 70s to have had the vaccine, hopefully all over 60s...

Think the target is more ambitious than that, they are aiming for all over 60s and under 60s with underlying conditions by April. Over 70s should be done sometime around end February.
Hopefully they hit that target, suspect for once they will and may even beat it.

 

[dozzie26]

healdplace is doing a good job plenty of useful data here

Yes, well done @Healdplace for the info. Certainly not scaremongering, just honest user-friendly data, very useful.

 

[Healdplace]

Thank you to all of you. That is all I am trying to do.

Data votes for nobody. But it helps decide our fate.

If Oxford is approved tomorrow as widely rumoured it will be THE biggest game changer in 9 months.

As it will mean by March maybe 90% of the most vulnerable will have whatever protection from serious illness these vaccines will bring. Still to be tested in the real world of ever mutating viruses, of course.

So the faster we get there the better.

 

[Healdplace]

Of those 318 deaths in England today something like 75% (potentially even 80% or so) will have been aged over 70 - so we get to the point of protecting those lives that will be very significant indeed.

With the more vulnerable over 50 added to that we will be talking well over 90% of the total.

That number is achievable by March with the Oxford vaccine. But not without.

So this Oxford decision and its efficacy is a big factor in where we are headed.

More particularly as its bigger selling point (often overlooked as the US one has a higher success at stopping you catching the virus) is that Oxford seems near 100% good at stopping you getting sick enough even if you do catch it to need hospitalisation.

THAT is the real game changer given the stress the NHS will be under from other things in coming weeks.

 

[simon29040]

fingers crossed that the vaccines work as hoped. But if they dont by end February this is what we should do
Close all schools and universities
Ban all incoming and outgoing flights
Close all shops and hospitality
Close all gyms and sports facilities
Lockdown people in their homes not even allowed out for food shopping the army to deliver food
Anyone breaking the rules to be sent to an isolation camp
No workmen allowed in homes except in emergencies
This for a minimum of 2 months
This i admit is an extreme lockdown but would hopefully reduce the virus to near zero and end the damaging cycle of lockdowns.

 

[Healdplace]

The ages of the 318 England hospital patient deaths reported today ranged from 38 to 100 and 13 (aged between 64 and 92) had no previously known underlying health condition.