COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[RadcliffeRick]

You are Xi Jinping and I claim my £5!

要为读者介绍来自峇株巴辖石文丁渔村的鸾笔雕刻师王国政（35岁），他从17岁至今已雕刻了逾百支鸾笔 £5

 

[SebastianBlue]

要为读者介绍来自峇株巴辖石文丁渔村的鸾笔雕刻师王国政（35岁），他从17岁至今已雕刻了逾百支鸾笔 £5

I’ll never believe you are a sculptor carving artist, Wang.

 

[George Hannah]

Can and have, there's thousands of them around here, it's as simple as walking out at sunset and sticking your hands out.

Do your eyes go red and your teeth get bigger then as well?

 

[bluesteel]

the lancet is working on a doubling of infection every 6.4 days.

And as you say, if this gets into Mumbai for example, and infects about 20% of the population that’s 100k dead right there.

We will never know tho as who’s going to count them in the slums.

I also assume the mortality rate will be higher in poorer countries, but probably not counted either.

30 million is 2.5% of China’s population. Grim.

or 20% of the world population get infected and it kills 2.5% of those infected

7.7billion - 80% - 97.5-% = 38.5 million.

 

[cibaman]

This new virus, has an r0 of 2.6, that means on average 1 person with it will infect 2.6 others. Influenza has an r0 between 1.4-1.6.

this new virus has a mortality rate of 2.5% at the moment. Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.05%.

So this new one spreads faster, infects more and kills 50x more people it infects compared to seasonal influenza.

On top of that, this new one has currently puts 18% of people it infects in hospital.

Isn’t the mortality rate probably overstated? There will probably be thousands of people who have contracted the virus but don’t have serious or any symptoms, haven’t been diagnosed and aren’t recorded in the numbers. Whereas the mortality figures will be much more accurate.

Hopefully the virus will become less virulent as it spreads.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Well said.

 

[marco]

Isn’t the mortality rate probably overstated? There will probably be thousands of people who have contracted the virus but don’t have serious or any symptoms, haven’t been diagnosed and aren’t recorded in the numbers. Whereas the mortality figures will be much more accurate.

Hopefully the virus will become less virulent as it spreads.

BBC saying the figures of infected could be 25 times higher than the 60,000,,if my maths are correct thats 1.2 million now infected (in china),if the mortality rate is true then that reduces the percentage rate of death but if they have lied about the infection rate they will almost certainly have twistd the death figures

 

[BlueHammer85]

BBC saying the figures of infected could be 25 times higher than the 60,000,,if my maths are correct thats 1.2 million now infected (in china),if the mortality rate is true then that reduces the percentage rate of death but if they have lied about the infection rate they will almost certainly have twistd the death figures

 

[grunge]

Isn’t the mortality rate probably overstated? There will probably be thousands of people who have contracted the virus but don’t have serious or any symptoms, haven’t been diagnosed and aren’t recorded in the numbers. Whereas the mortality figures will be much more accurate.

Hopefully the virus will become less virulent as it spreads.

Probably yeah, but that's the math's available at the moment based on confirmed cases. from what has been made available ( not including the surge today ) its seems to have actually risen, 2 weeks ago it was 2%, yesterday it was 2.5%

I did see comments somewhere that the fact that the mortality being so static around the 2% mark was a sign the Chinese were massaging the figures ( may have been on here ) as you would expect fluctuations.

Just did some quick napkin maths and with todays new figures its still coming out at 2.2%

if you go by deaths vs recovered the figures ( ignoring those still infected as they may recover or die so cant count them ) is closer to 18% but no where near enough data have any accuracy there.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Isn’t the mortality rate probably overstated? There will probably be thousands of people who have contracted the virus but don’t have serious or any symptoms, haven’t been diagnosed and aren’t recorded in the numbers. Whereas the mortality figures will be much more accurate.

Hopefully the virus will become less virulent as it spreads.

The reported deaths won’t be anywhere near accurate either.