COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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SebastianBlue

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This excerpt from the below linked article provides an overview regarding concerns about the COVID-19 data coming out of China — the full text expands on why many statisticians and data analysts aren’t particularly confident in the data.

——————————————————

China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. “This Never Happens With Real Data.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ch...ns-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.

...

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”
 

jared

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Has the Chinese government been on TV to address the nation about this ? just out of curiosity
Been on it from it was known to be a new dangerous virus. If you check social media weibo and online news, it's all they are talking about. Most of gov sources are on it daily. People daily, Cctv, xinhua etc. I understand mandarin so I follow the original sources everday.

Have to say I'm Glad to see less racism and sinophobia over here compared to rag Cafe
 

Tricky_Trev

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This excerpt from the below linked article provides an overview regarding concerns about the COVID-19 data coming out of China — the full text expands on why many statisticians and data analysts aren’t particularly confident in the data.

——————————————————

China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. “This Never Happens With Real Data.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ch...ns-its-coronavirus-numbers-do-too-51581622840

Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.

...

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”
Been saying it since day one. China is hiding the real nature of this virus. And when you see them welding doors shut to let people die without infecting further people... that says much more than any bullshit numbers can. They are leaving their citizens for dead.
 

SebastianBlue

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Been on it from it was known to be a new dangerous virus. If you check social media weibo and online news, it's all they are talking about. Most of gov sources are on it daily. People daily, Cctv, xinhua etc. I understand mandarin so I follow the original sources everday.

Have to say I'm Glad to see less racism and sinophobia over here compared to rag Cafe
Fairly sure he meant have they been on in a more comprehensively informative, stately, assertive, generally well-received manner to specifically address the major concerns and anxiety of the people, and especially those being forcibly quarantined, which from the reports I have seen doesn’t seem to have really occurred very often.

But I think the thread would definitely be served well if you have examples of when they have so we can get a better sense of their ongoing response. It always helps to have someone that can directly translate information for more clarity and insight in to the situation.

As far as racism and xenophobia are concerned, it’s not something that will be tolerated in the thread and the forum in general (both are called out specifically in the Forum Rules), so as much as I never feel that pleased about being better than Rag Cafe (that’s like besting a toddler in chess—you’ve won, but it’s a hollow accomplishment), I am heartened to hear that our discussion has been more inclusive and sensible.
 

jared

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Yeah that's gonna be impossible cuz all the info have been on weibo and the online sites from day one. Translating them would be a crazy and time consuming endeavor which I have neither the sanity or the time to do so. My suggestion is just create a Weibo account and Google translate any random postings or messages there you feel may make you better understand the situation in china now.

Or even hear what other westerners actually living there has to say rather than depend sorely on western media reports hyping up the distrust of China. Other than that I dun know, there really is not much point
 

grunge

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I am not sure there is no evidence for direct transmission between bats and humans, but this is the guidance from the WHO novel coronavirus FAQ (which is always framed vaguely until there is a scientific consensus regarding viral origin):


Can humans become infected with the 2019-nCoV from an animal source?


Detailed investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans in China in 2002 and MERS-CoV from dromedary camels to humans in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. As surveillance improves around the world, more coronaviruses are likely to be identified

The animal source of the 2019-nCoV has not yet been identified. This does not mean you can catch 2019-nCoV from any animal or from your pet. It’s likely that an animal source from a live animal market in China was responsible for some of the first reported human infections. To protect yourself, when visiting live animal markets, avoid direct unprotected contact with live animals and surfaces in contact with animals.

The consumption of raw or undercooked animal products should be avoided. Raw meat, milk or animal organs should be handled with care, to avoid cross-contamination with uncooked foods, as per good food safety practices.

Sorry, yeah there is plenty of evidence that this strain came from a bat initially, but there isn't ( from what i've read ) any evidence this transferred to a human because of humans specifically eating bats in that market.
 

SebastianBlue

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Yeah that's gonna be impossible cuz all the info have been on weibo and the online sites from day one. Translating them would be a crazy and time consuming endeavor which I have neither the sanity or the time to do so. My suggestion is just create a Weibo account and Google translate any random postings or messages there you feel may make you better understand the situation in china now.

Or even hear what other westerners actually living there has to say rather than depend sorely on western media reports hyping up the distrust of China. Other than that I dun know, there really is not much point
I also don’t have the time or sanity to create accounts and translate all the potentially relevant messages. And how would non-mandarin speakers know what was potentially relevant or if the translations were accurate or meaningful?

But I have tried to source as much information from non-western media and China-based sources as is reasonably possible (some of it is also fairly dubious) and have talked to a few colleagues living in China — to be honest, they don’t paint a particularly good picture of what is happening there and much of the distrust originates with the Chinese people. Though, I do agree, western media does tend to amplify it in standard coverage.
 

SebastianBlue

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Sorry, yeah there is plenty of evidence that this strain came from a bat initially, but there isn't ( from what i've read ) any evidence this transferred to a human because of humans specifically eating bats in that market.
My previous post wasn’t referencing consumption in that specific market, only current reporting about likely zoonotic origin.
 

aguero93:20

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Sorry, yeah there is plenty of evidence that this strain came from a bat initially, but there isn't ( from what i've read ) any evidence this transferred to a human because of humans specifically eating bats in that market.
It's all Ozzy Osbourne's fault.
 
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