COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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purplenose said:
I am probably going to miss out on fulfiling an ambition in April, the chance probably wont come again. I suffer from a condition that keeps me virtually imprisoned during the winter and now it looks like I will be in the summer too....its a crock of shit mate. I am one of those who might not come out of the other end of this. Well tough shit there are lots worse off and if I miss out on a trip so be it.

Now for you given you fly you are in excellent health and have no great concerns other than maybe catching it and feeling shit for a week or two. Others are less fortunate, many are faced with the reality of gambling with their lives each time they set foot out of the door to go and buy food.

To put it bluntly attitudes like yours could quite possibly cost lives and prolong this thing beyond that pay rise in July. For you it might only be a snotty nose for millions of others it will be death.
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Attitudes like mine? Saving my life from a virus you think will kill lots of people?!

Hate to tell you, mate, but it sounds like you’re so fragile that anything could harm you...even the regular flu! You are citing an extreme case and saying the whole world should change their lives because of your misfortune. I have no problems with you taking the precautions you need to take

And, while you’re being snotty, I’m not one of the ones getting a pay raise in July, that’s management!
 
SWP's back said:
They’re direct from The WHO.

What is influencing your view on them? You got any sources?
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In China, MOST people don’t run to the Dr when they get a runny nose, cough or cold/flu like symptoms, they self diagnose and get in with it.

I understand WHO is putting out THEIR REAL NUMBERS, but I don’t think their numbers have any clue of the denominator...they’re just the best numbers they have based on factual data.

And, last I checked, flu was a 0.01% fatality rate.
 
Indaparkside said:
How come certain posters are experts in every
Topic on here, whether it’s politics, the corona virus or what colour your shit tells you about your insides, their there talking verbal diarrhoea pretending they know everything
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Welcome to Bluemoon......and the internet.
 
SWP's back said:
Yeah it’s much worse than Ebola and SARS. The kill rate of Ebola means it has a relatively low R0 as it’s infectious once symptoms appear.

So for 80% it’s a bit crap but not too bad.

For 20% it means a respirator and intensive care. Put it this way, for a home sell out of 55,000, say Madrid, that would mean 11,000 needing intensive care and 550 dying.

It’s not bad odds but how many would like to go to a game if they were told that 550, pretty much at random, we’re going to be marched out, lined up against a wall and shot?

And if the WHO are correct, it means 1,320 die for that sample size.
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Bollocks! Beyond the 80%, it doesn’t mean what you say.
 
Tricky_Trev said:
Change now and help prevent that situation?

Today - roughly 100 cases
Day 3 - 200
Day 6 - 400
Day 9 - 800
Day 12 - 1,600
Day 15 - 3,200
Day 18 - 6,400
Day 21 - 12,800
Day 24 - 25,600
Day 27 - 51,200
Day 30 - 102,400
Day 33 - 204,800
Day 36 - 409,600
Day 39 - 819,200
Day 42 - 1,638,400
Day 45 - 3,276,800
Etc

How long do you want to leave it? Health professionals are not issuing advice for a laugh, they want people to follow it. Changes should be made now to slow that down. By everyone.

Of the roughly 60,000 cases that have been resolved, 3,400 died. The rest are active, so I don’t really see why they should be used in the death rate calculations - they are ongoing, we don’t know if they will survive or die. So almost 6% are dying so far. Though I admit I don’t know the correct way to work out death rate, this is just a way that makes sense to me in my mind. The figures may be inaccurate of course, but we can only work off what we’ve got.
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At that rate, you might as well go out and have a party, because we are all dead in a few months!
 
cibaman said:
I wonder if any statisticians can extrapolate the UK figures and give a very rough estimate what percentage of the population will have or had the virus by the end of April. Just to give a feel as to the likelihood that City will be in quarantine by the time CL semi finals come round
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There's much more to than straight maths though. Numbers are increasing by roughly 35% a day at the moment, which mathematically would mean 2.2 billions Brits infected by April 30th!

Of course there aren't 2.2 billion Brits however. So again at current rates, all 67m are infected after another 42 or 43 days, i.e. April 18th give or take.

But if course this is just the raw maths - it doesn't take account of us taking increasingly invasive preventative measures, like curfews or cutting off whole towns etc. Or reaching saturation point, i.e. each infected person finding it increasingly difficult to find an uninfected person to infect.

So the bottom line is we really don't know. I'd be surprised if it's not at least hundreds of thousands by end April however - maybe a million or more.
 
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Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
1200 more cases in Italy in 24 hours and 50 more deaths.

Last Saturday they had 1200 cases and 34 deaths.

They now have almost 6000 and close to 250 deaths.

It is clearly taking off big style there. We are probably 2 weeks behind them currently but there is no reason why it won’t be like this in 2 weeks here if we do nothing to slow it down.

Let’s see if the school closures in Italy slows it down a bit but on this rate of growth, there could easily be 30,000 infected in Italy by next weekend and 1200 deaths.

For me we need to act now to try to slow this down not wait until we have similar numbers.
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I swear the mortality rate being reported is wrong. Over 4% in Italy and that’s despite including currently active cases, many of which will sadly die. About 1 in 17 that get this virus don’t survive. Of course certain people are far more vulnerable than others, but overall that’s quite a high chance of death really.

Yet people here still can’t be arsed washing their hands because it’s only a bit of flu. And people will genuinely be apoplectic with rage when we can’t go to football matches, as if that’s actually important.
 
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