COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[birch villa]

The figures now seem to be rapidly increasing since they told us about herd immunity

 

[west didsblue]

Rare breed herd immunity?

I'd heard 60-80% being quoted - wasn't that what the govt officials said?

Plucked out of his arse would be my guess.

 

[blueish swede]

People can be wrong. If we're to believe this not to be the case, then they need to be more transparent, certainly with other experts.

ATM they are effectively just telling us what will happen 'when the plan works'.

But, for example, as a WHO spokesperson pointed out this morning that the Herd Immunisation strategy wholly depended on individuals generating the required immune responses to this particular virus. And she was lost for any evidence or data at this stage that actually supports the belief that this IS what happens with THIS virus. Which leaves us with the delicate question of wether they are going with the assumption that because it's worked that way with SOME corona viruses, it absolutely will do so in this case.

They absolutely need to be more transparent and have their trategy reviewed by people that aren't in the bubble.
A look at the UK population:
20% over 65
28% obese
25% high blood pressure
7% asthma
6% diabetes
and that doesn't include people who have other illnesses, cancer etc or the many disabled that are vunerable.
Obviously some of those categories will overlap so it's not a simple addition but even so the 60% figure for herd immunity looks difficult to attain without significant risk.

If it is 60%.

Estimates for the infectious period for Covid-19 from Italy seem to be longer than from China which would push up the R0. R0 estimated seem to be ranging from 1.6 to 3.3 that gives a spread in the herd immunity requred ( =1-[1/R0] ) from 38% to 70%*. The biigest way we can drive down R0 is through social control/distancing, which the UK aren't implementing. The 1.6 value was from Wuhan after lock down btw.

From the outside, waiting for the Government to act looks like a dodgy strategy for anyone who is at even a slight risk.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Apologies if this has already been posted but seems that scientists in Netherlands have identified the antibody.


https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/14/dutch-researchers-first-find-covid-19-antibodies-report

saw that before online it’s positive news, have said before we need the scientific community to dig us out if this one and we’ve got some world class institutions around the world working on it as well as anti virals - I’m optimistic on that front

 

[urban genie]

You'll probably both feel a lot better if you stay away from the doom mongers on here - undoubtedly things will get a lot worse before they get better but 99% of those unfortunate enough to catch this virus will recover and for the vast majority of those it will be a mild illness. Let's hope the government strategy will protect vulnerable groups and keep overall infection levels as low as possible, No country in the world is projected to have more than 10% of their population being affected or a mortality rate in excess of 1% and current data suggests that nowhere will.

Back to the politics forum with your made up argumentative nonsense, which you have form for.

You only do this to get a response and then argue the toss till people get fed up an you get the last word.

None of what you just wrote is not backed up but pure conjecture on your part.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I think he's ill, but didn't really sound like he had a cold or similar to me.

There really was no need for him to be there today, and he was in bomber jacket mode, not suit and tie, as if that was all there was time for.

At least Pence will stay on the topic and not indulge in pointscoring.

I think it has been established he is in generally poor health despite the banana republic medical evaluation results released and is declining rather rapidly. But I do think today and yesterday were the worst we seen for some time, so there may be an added illness. And, if so, you can see why they would be managing him to prevent the optics of him contracting some sort of infection whilst supposedly heading the US government’s response to the outbreak (not to mention him calling the coronavirus a hoax about a week ago before changing tune).

 

[MillionMilesAway]

saw that before online it’s positive news, have said before we need the scientific community to dig us out if this one and we’ve got some world class institutions around the world working on it as well as anti virals - I’m optimistic on that front

I think the big pharma companies will be working closely together, and that when one gets something that works, the others will happily make it to get capacity up.

 

[urban genie]

I think at his point those that consistently (we’ll all have lapses now and then) *chose* not to take simple steps to optimise personal hygiene (the most basic of precautions) are more than morons.

That does not include those that may not be in a position to optimise personal hygiene, such as people who cannot afford the continual purchase of cleaning agents required to do it properly (or do not have steady access to them) and those with disabilities preventing personal care — they are not *chosing* to avoid these steps.

But those that are wilfully ignoring basic government, WHO, and general health guidance are criminally negligent at best.

I won’t say what they are at worst.

Luckily, I still think those people are a small minority overall.

I would say plenty are ignoring government advice from my observations today out in pubs.

Telling peiple the risk is minimal as the government basically has, has been foilhardy.

A nation of pisshead being told all is fine was a stupid action

I include myself, I have a bottle of sanitizer in my pocket and using it regualary, am keeping a safr disrance, washing hand etc.

But really I should have just stayd home.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Had to postpone our honeymoon yesterday so gutted about that after booking it 2 year ago. Managed to push it back to end of September so not too bad

Wedding next Friday and shitting it right now. Could lose the lot of it if one of us picks the virus up. Family from abroad (including the mrs dad and brother) might not be able to get over either. Right shit at the moment, but at least we have our health (at the moment anyway). The mrs suffers from very bad anxiety and it’s making her unwell with all the worrying.

You will probably be fine, mate.

Just take normal precautions and don’t invite @karen7. ;-)

 

[andyhinch]

I think at his point those that consistently (we’ll all have lapses now and then) *chose* not to take simple steps to optimise personal hygiene (the most basic of precautions) are more than morons.

That does not include those that may not be in a position to optimise personal hygiene, such as people who cannot afford the continual purchase of cleaning agents required to do it properly (or do not have steady access to them) and those with disabilities preventing personal care — they are not *chosing* to avoid these steps.

But those that are wilfully ignoring basic government, WHO, and general health guidance are criminally negligent at best.

I won’t say what they are at worst.

Luckily, I still think those people are a small minority overall.

You would hope so, I’ve spent my entire working life avoiding/not spreading contamination so most of this is second nature, I can appreciate how it’s all a bit alien to some though.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I think it has been established he is in generally poor health despite the banana republic medical evaluation results released and is declining rather rapidly. But I do think today and yesterday were the worst we seen for some time, so there may be an added illness. And, if so, you can see why they would be managing him to prevent the optics of him contracting some sort of infection whilst supposedly heading the US government’s response to the outbreak (not to mention him calling the coronavirus a hoax about a week ago before changing tune).

I suppose hiding him might look worse.
He looked as though he was shuffling and hunched today.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I think the big pharma companies will be working closely together, and that when one gets something that works, the others will happily make it to get capacity up.

absolutely! exchange of information capacity we have now and genome mapping of the virus already being done by the Chinese and shared globally already tells you that every government will tell their pharma companies to work night and day on this - we all win and pharma companies can be paid later down the track once we can start to get the economies going again

 

[SebastianBlue]

I suppose hiding him might look worse.
He looked as though he was shuffling and hunched today.

The management isn’t for us, mate, it’s for his supporters. But I agree about the shuffling and hunching. As he was last night, he seemed to be using the podium to keep himself steady and upright as he stood there for a longer time, as well.

 

[blueish swede]

In other news I read that in eastern Congo (DRC) there ave been no new Ebola cases for 21 days and the epidemic looks to have been controlled.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

absolutely! exchange of information capacity we have now and genome mapping of the virus already being done by the Chinese and shared globally already tells you that every government will tell their pharma companies to work night and day on this - we all win and pharma companies can be paid later down the track once we can start to get the economies going again

we have no facility to make vaccines in the uk.
We import everything.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

absolutely! exchange of information capacity we have now and genome mapping of the virus already being done by the Chinese and shared globally already tells you that every government will tell their pharma companies to work night and day on this - we all win and pharma companies can be paid later down the track once we can start to get the economies going again

Thing is the government won't need to be involved. The last thing one wants is someone to say "why isn't Pfizer making it?"

One company will end up with the patent, but they will licence it to anyone else in the emergency - as you say, they all will get paid.

 

[George Hannah]

...None of what you just wrote is not backed up but pure conjecture on your part.

All of it is taken verbatim from interviews with the UK's Chief Health Officer and Chief Scientific Officer - lefty loons like you can't hear anything but the emissions of the blonde in between.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

The management isn’t for us, mate, it’s for his supporters. But I agree about the shuffling and hunching. As he was last night, he seemed to be using the podium to keep himself steady and upright as he stood there for a longer time, as well.

Could be, I didn't think he looked that bad yesterday.

It'll take something seismic to break his base, but waverers might notice.

 

[Len Rum]

Eton closing.
State schools not.
So that's good, herd immunity doesn't apply to our future gene pool of leaders.
Meanwhile Newton Dunn of the Sun reporting that some Cabinet Ministers are urging Johnson to 'come clean' about the UK Government's herd immunity policy and the possible downsides.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

absolutely! exchange of information capacity we have now and genome mapping of the virus already being done by the Chinese and shared globally already tells you that every government will tell their pharma companies to work night and day on this - we all win and pharma companies can be paid later down the track once we can start to get the economies going again

it’s not really how Big Pharma do business though. They like the big bucks to be agreed before their products are distributed.