COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

London definitely falling by the looks of it, so the rest should be falling in the next two or three weeks.

As I noted above in the Zoe report it has been falling there for a week now and NW has slowed its rise too.

I suggested in those posts above that the Zoe data infers we might peak in about a week to 10 days if I am reading it right.

Yorkshire and Midlands and North East are rising still so it is not all about London and North West but if NW follows the trend in London on peaking that these two in a week or so will then be going down not up and their sheer size will have a big say on the England numbers even if smaller regions are yet to peak.

 

[Healdplace]

There has to have been a big deduction of cases across the board as every region is well down and in Greater Manchester every borough down hundreds. Am guessing the huge numbers yesterday in GM were vastly exaggerated.As they looked improbable even in context.

So this will have seriously reset the clock. But just for the day.

The least impacted in GM was Wigan who still had 1228 cases today - over 200 more than Manchester.

Most other boroughs were way down to what looks an unlikely low number. Stockport for instance halved from 1163 yesterday to 581 today. So big was that drop that they actually gained Pop Score points back off Bolton even though they were down by over 500 on yesterday too.

So it seems likely we are talking about a readjustment in GM of around 2000 in total maybe. But that is educated guesswork only and no doubt tomorrows numbers will tell us more as they will presumably be more normal and adjust well up.

Bottom line. Wise not to judge much from todays numbers as they will likely be very unrepresentative of what we will see in the next few days.

 

[Healdplace]

Best numbers today were not in GM anyway. They were in West London. 22

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES

Everywhere down pretty similarly (bar Yorkshire - te region going up the most recently) and a lot suggests the reason is the data reductions spread quite evenly.

Tomorrow will be a better guide to where everyone is really going.


REGION TODAY - UP/DOWN - V SEVEN DAYS AGO


LONDON 19,951 - DOWN from 27, 608 V 22,348


NORTH WEST 19,375 - DOWN from 27,328 V 14,272



SOUTH EAST 16,033 - DOWN from 23,108 V 18,419

YORKSHIRE 14,298 - DOWN from 14,373 V 6578 - the only region with barely a fall

EAST 12,556 - DOWN from 16,168 V 11,581

WEST MIDLANDS 11,388 - DOWN from 16,221 V 8968

EAST MIDLANDS 9573 12,994 - DOWN from 12,994 V 8033

SOUTH WEST 9337 - DOWN from 12, 367 V 8288

NORTH EAST 7474 - DOWN from 10,935 V 3500

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY

TOTAL 6184 - Half yesterday - but obviously not truly reflective as it has a big MINUS number in it

Down from 11,374 yesterday by 5190

NW Total 19,735 - down from yesterday by 7953

GM 31.3% NW total today. WAY down from 41.6% yesterday.

SO MOST OF THE CASE READJUSTMENTS IN THE REGION TODAY WERE IN GREATER MANCHESTER IT SEEMS

THESE DAY TO DAY AND WEEK TO WEEK COMPARISONS NEED TO BE JUDGED ON THAT BASIS - CAUTIOUSLY


WIGAN 1228- DOWN 280 on day & UP 444 on week - Pop Score 372 * (POP 23,559)) Highest daily Pop score rise today

MANCHESTER 1012 - DOWN 871 on day & DOWN 44 on week - Pop Score 182 (POP 23,734)

SALFORD 609 - DOWN 457 on day & UP 33 on week - Pop Score 231 (POP 24,625) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic - leading Manchester by 891. GMs first but soon far from only entrant of the 24K club and over half way to the 25K club already.

TRAFFORD 591 - DOWN 292 on day & UP 164 on week - Pop Score 249 (POP 23,733) - After being best in GM across the pandemic a week or two before Christ,as it is now one behind Manchester - who are only behond leader Salford! Such have the GM Pop scores squeezed together lately as vaccinations have levelled the playing field a lot it seems.

STOCKPORT 581 - DOWN 582 on day & DOWN 58 on week - Pop Score 197 (POP 22,906) Such a good day here with a huge drop - unreal as it may be if mainly down to the removed false positives - that after losing 100 a day Pop score points to Bolton for a week it actually GAINED 3 back today!

BOLTON 575 - DOWN 519 on day & UP 54 on week - Pop Score 200 to POP 21,917) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic. Leads Stockport now by 'only' 989. Will enter the 22 K club tomorrow on the same day Stockport enters the 23K club.

TAMESIDE 497 - DOWN 465 on day & UP 46 on week. Pop Score 219 (POP 23,391)

ROCHDALE 394 - DOWN 583 on day & UP 65 on week. Pop Score 176 (POP 23,533)

OLDHAM 369 - DOWN 792 on day & UP 40 on week - Pop Score 156* to enter the 23K club - tomorrow 8 of the 10 GM boroughs will be in 23K briefly. (POP 23,097) * Lowest pop score rise in GM today

BURY 328 - DOWN 349 on day & DOWN 63 on week. Pop Score 172 (POP 23,272)

 

[cleavers]

Numbers over extended bank holiday weekends mean nothing, lets see where the numbers are later this week/next weekend, then we might have a better picture.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Numbers over extended bank holiday weekends mean nothing, lets see where the numbers are later this week/next weekend, then we might have a better picture.

Also its hard to report a positive test when you cannot get hold of a testing kit. Reductions in numbers were predicted over the holidays were predicted coz of the lack of availability of tests - everybody from the producers to the distributors were off over the break. Its not until the end of the month that they expect testing to be up to the required level.

Lateral flow test shortage for another TWO WEEKS, Sajid Javid says

The Health Secretary also revealed that supplies would be prioritised for vulnerable groups, such as care home patients. He also said the UK had trebled its order for January and February.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Healdplace]

All of the above about the actual numbers due to testing issues is true. But the relative comparisons are likely to be valid regardless.

As in we can clearly see - and have seen and reported - the data showing London stalling and falling for a week or so now. North West then rising to go level and about to take over as top region. And the other regions starting to move up too one by one. Yorkshire and Midlands especially so in recent days which the media are yet to pick up on but will when the 5 day old data they use catches up.

The daily raw numbers rarely matter much. But the trends do reflect where we are headed.

The media are reporting these things about Lodon today but the numbers have been showing us going there across the last few days.

So they give us a heads up over what will eventually be the headlines. Not the actual numbers. But the direction of travel. I make a bit of a game of it by saying so and so is ahead of somewhere or other. Just to make it less boring to collate the numbers and with long posts for the few who bother to read them. But also as the direction of track is more valid than the actual total.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

ONLY SCOTLAND AND ENGLAND REPORTING AND NO DEATH DATA HERE EITHER TODAY

THERE ARE SO MANY TESTS BEING PROCESSED THEY SAY THESE MAY EVEN BE AN UNDER ESTIMATE!

TODAY THOUGH IS A NEW SINGLE DAY RECORD IN SCOTLAND

20, 217 cases - was 10, 562 last week & 6734 two weeks ago today

34.9% positivity - highest ever here - was 15.2% two weeks ago

1031 patients - UP from 859 last data 48 hours ago - was 555 last Monday - so DOUBLED in 7 days

Though that 478 extra patients is from at least 80,000 cases in the same 7 days.

So around one in 200 cases becoming hospitalised patients.

38 ventilated - was 37 last week - so as you see despite all those cases and near 500 more in hospital ventilated patients have barely moved.

THIS SUPPORTS WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT OMICRON - MANY CATCH IT - FEWER GOING INTO HOSPITAL FROM IT AND EVEN FEWER NEEDING VENTILATION SO LIKELY TO DIE FROM IT.

 

[xgorton]

Unbelievable the people on this site that have proved positive after there test,jabs boosters more jabs (4th coming along soon) people need to stop going in pubs, restaurants, holidays and crowded places before blaming the unjabed.