COVID Data Thread

WEEKLY POP SCORES IN GREATER MANCHESTER



EVERY borough is way over its highest ever numbers. In fact all but two are now over 2000 when we have only seen a couple of brief forays over 1000 by anyone in GM before.




WIGAN 2538- was 1399 last week & 420 last month Almost doubled in a week to the highest ever GM Pop Score and SIX times where it was 2 weeks before Christmas.Like most in GM score is Delta 0 Omicron 6

SALFORD 2400 - was 1697 last week & 404 last month

STOCKPORT 2374 - was 1611 last week & 421 last month - first to go up but looks to be settling now.

TRAFFORD 2256 - was 1645 last week & 492 last month

TAMESIDE 2170 - was 1478 last week & 411 last month

OLDHAM 2091 - was 1101 last week & 323 last month

ROCHDALE 2050 - was 1171 last week & 429 last month

MANCHESTER 2032 - was 1617 last week & 330 last month - Manchester looks to be flattening too.

BURY 1919 - was 1409 last week & 445 last month

BOLTON 1900 - was 1099 last week & 321 last month 'Best in GM and well clear as the lowest Pop Score across the pandemic too. Getting Delta early paid off it seems. But it seems last in has not protected it as like Wigan it has doubled this week and looks bound for going over 2000 any day.
 
WALES DATA

8 deaths - was 3 last week

22,317 cases - new record high - was 12,378 last week.

I think this will be data for last weekend - so two days - as nothing was posted yesterday (Monday usually has the Saturday & Sunday numbers together - Tuesday usually just the Monday numbers). But not made clear. We will find out when Gov UK publishes tonight.

Still no hospital data since 29 December either.
 
The BBC has a feature on real problems in Nth Lancashire and Cumbria hospitals due to record case numbers.

It refers to data in December as they use the 5 day old numbers. Claiming 2000 cases a day in Cumbria.

So I looked at the data and they have certainly gone up but not I think as badly as they have in other places like Stockport (that the media totally ignored for weeks when it was at record highs) and currenty both Bolton and Wigan that have accelerated a lot in past few days as Sockport has levelled off.

Just pre Christmas Cumbria had 500 cases. On Christmas Eve 900. It then rose daily 1300, 1500, 1800 to top out at 2200. But has fallen back since to 1300. So yes it is up but I would not have thought unusually so.

Using cases like this is not really the way to go now anyhow - especially depending on older figures as it misses the current trend in a very fast moving wave.

I will be very surprised if almost everywhere in the North West is not showing a similar pattern to the above. Most of Greater Manchester and Merseyside certainly has.

What it does flag up though is small rural areas with limited hospital capacity are likely to be the ones under the most strain as they often are isolated by some distance from other health areas of any size that could share the load.

We will be seeing a lot of that as this wave spreads. Lincolnshire was flagged up the other day as in crisis. There will be others coming.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

DO NOT PANIC TOO MUCH - THIS IS FOUR DAYS WORTH OF DATA IN ONE.

STILL REPRESENTS A BIG RISE AS WE SEE EVERYWHERE CARE OF OMICRON

15 deaths - was 1 on last reported day (last Friday)

30, 423 cases - was 7215 on last reported data (last Friday)

50, 627 WEEKLY CASES TOTAL - BY MILES A NEW RECORD - WAS 35,107 LAST FRIDAY

112 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - NOT UPDATED SINCE 31 DEC - WAS 46 SEVEN DAYS BEFORE THIS.

THERE IS CLEARLY A BIG CONCERN THAT CHRISTMAS HAS ALLOWED IT TO SPREAD HERE

348 Patients - was 314 on last report Friday

25 ventilated - was 25 on last report Friday

SO AGAIN NOTE PATIENTS UP BUT VENTILATORS NOT

THIS IS THE REAL GOOD NEWS WE ARE SEEING EVERYWHERE.

MOST CASES NOT SERIOUS ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ICU VENTILATORS WHICH SHOULD MEAN A LOT FEWER DEATHS
 
SCOTLAND DATA

THIS IS ONLY TODAY

0 deaths - was 0 last week - Bank Holiday so no reporting likely

17,259 cases - was 20,217 yesterday & 9360 last week - So down on the day but double last week

35.3% positivity - was 34.9% yesterday

1147 patients - was 1031 yeserday & 599 last Tuesday - so up 116 in last 24 hours and doubled in the week

42 ventuilated icu - was 38 yesterday & 37 last week - so up a bit but not by a lot given the patients doubling.
 
So 70,000 cases reported without England. Unprecedented.

Though some might be redistributed to past days. It is a bit iconsistent if they do that or not. Depends how the country report it I guess.

We will almost certainly be over 200,000 today. Possibly close to what will be the peak if the southern regions are still falling and North West close to flattening based on what London did.

But we are going to see numbers around here for a week or ten days at least I supect.

After that I do expect it to drop as this level of cases has the advantage that it peaks faster than a slow rise would and is hard to sustain over weeks. And so may fall relatively swiftly too.But we are as yet to see how London behaves on the way down
 
HERE ARE THE 50 K NORTHERN IRELAND PAST WEEK CASES BY NUMBERS TESTED POSITIVE IN EACH AGE GROUP

SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE UPPER AGES BUT STILL BY FAR THE LOWEST PERCENTAGE - THE CARE HOME OUTBREAKS DOUBLING IN A WEEK WILL BE A CONCERNING FACTOR HERE

WE SHOULD EXPECT THE UNDER 19s TO START RISING AGAIN NOW SCHOOLS ARE BACK

BUT AS LONG AS THE DIAGRAM KEEPS THIS BASIC SHAPE WE CANNOT HOPE FOR BETTER AS THE TOP IS THE MOST VULNERABLE AND THE BOTTOM THE LEAST SO THIS IS THE SAFEST WE CAN EVER BE


1641309786344.png
 
48 Deaths


218, 724 Cases - over 200K as expected.

UK record

BUT NOT AN ENGLAND RECORD - THERE WERE TWO LAST WEEK OVER 160,000

England 148,725 - was 137, 541 yesterday & 117,093 last Tuesday
 
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