COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

A bit of a different day. North West easily back up on top and only one over 20K after rising whilst the two big southern regions and most others fall well. Though Yorkshire, NE and Midlands rising too show the regions that are current epicentre of Omicron.

Though London do set a record today by becoming the first England region to top 2 million cases - on 2,003.245....on current numbers both South East and North West are about 10 days away from joining them. Nobody else is anywhere near. North East is the only region not having got to 1 million yet and not likely to do so in the next few weeks on current numbers.




NORTH WEST on 20,254 - UP from 18,346 V 19,375 last week & 14,272 2 wks ago



LONDON on 16,493 - down from 20,853 V 19,951 last week & 22,340 2 wks ago

SOUTH EAST on 15,739 - down from 18,957 V 16,033 last week & 18,419 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 14,560 - UP from 13,367 V 11,388 last week & 8968 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 13,180 - UP from 12,003 V 14,373 last week & 11,379 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 10,847 - UP from 10,404 V 9573 last week & 8633 2 wks ago

EAST on 10,481 - down from 12,811 V 12,556 last week & 11,581 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 10,167 - UP from 7207 V 7474 last week & 3505 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 8561 - down from 9259 V 9337 last week & 8288 2 wks ago

 

[Gabriel]

One thing that concerns me is that as we ease out of the restrictions in general society, then that level of care and attention that has been present throughout is naturally going to be shifted to the most vulnerable; there is just so much care and attention (including restrictions) that it won’t be scaled back or vanish immediately, and you can already hear politicians, of all hues, declaring their desire to ‘protect the vulnerable’. However, the sheer weight of that care and attention could become suffocating for older people and, paradoxically, detrimental to their long-term health. We cannot allow society to reopen but cocoon the vulnerable in a world where the fear wrought by the pandemic never seems to end.

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 7744

DOWN by 200 from 7944 yesterday


NW Total 20,254

UP by 1908 from 18,346 yesterday


GM 38.2% of the NW total today. Down from 43% yesterday. So a pretty good day as GM falls whilst NW rises

Week to week though GM is up 1560 from 6184 (which was a supiciously low number all round then if you recall) when the NW went up just 879. Further suggesting last weeks GM data was indeed suspect as we thought. It seems to have corrected itself since whatever happened.




MANCHESTER 1259 - DOWN 463 on day & UP 247 on week - Pop Score 226 (POP 25,602)

WIGAN 1077 - UP 214 on day & DOWN 151 on week Pop Score 326 (POP 25,890)

BOLTON 834 - UP 113 on day & UP 259 on week - Pop Score 289 to enter the 24K club (POP 24,067) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - And now 926 ahead.

SALFORD 820 - DOWN 15 on day & UP 211 on week - Pop Score 312 - will be first into the 27K club tomorrow (POP 26,987) Highest Pop Score across the pandemic

TAMESIDE 762 - UP 110 on day & UP 265 on week. Pop Score 335* (POP 25,710) * Highest Pop Score in GM Today

STOCKPORT 705 - DOWN 33 on day & UP 124 on week. Pop Score 240. Just managed to stay in the 24K club one more day with Bolton and regained 49 points back on them for lowest score in the pandemic (POP 24,993)

ROCHDALE 703 - UP 22 on day & UP 309 on week. Pop Score 314 (POP 25,758)

BURY 573 - UP 174 on day & UP 245 on week. Pop Score 301 (POP 25,442)

TRAFFORD 518 - DOWN 55 on day & DOWN 73 on week - but Pop Score of 218 (POP 25,668)

OLDHAM 493 - DOWN 267 on day & UP 124 on week. Pop Score 208. Regained 32 on Stockport and gap now 218. POP 25,211) * Lowest pop score in GM today after being the highest yesterday!

 

[Healdplace]

One thing that concerns me is that as we ease out of the restrictions in general society, then that level of care and attention that has been present throughout is naturally going to be shifted to the most vulnerable; there is just so much care and attention (including restrictions) that it won’t be scaled back or vanish immediately, and you can already hear politicians, of all hues, declaring their desire to ‘protect the vulnerable’. However, the sheer weight of that care and attention could become suffocating for older people and, paradoxically, detrimental to their long-term health. We cannot allow society to reopen but cocoon the vulnerable in a world where the fear wrought by the pandemic never seems to end.

As one of the older generation I talk to my friend daily. So it comes up. She is a little older than me and with more medical problems and her family are keen to have her move to be with one of them in one of the locations they live around the UK.

She may or may not agree. I tend to think not as she sees them all often anyway and spent 2 weeks over the holidays in Wales. We are both pretty independent and are never out of touch with one another or family. We have pondered the future. I must admit I am more guarded about stepping back out there doing stuff but she knows I have my reasons.

But she is openly planning a visit to see her family in Australia which she would have done 18 months ago but for Covid). She has been there a few times since losing her husband. She is also planning a cruise ship holiday this Summer. Not something I would at this stage be brave enough to consider. She did ask!

Everybody has coped in their own way. These posts have been my way of dealing with things I guess. When done I may have another book to write as I am already missing that challenge especially now the last one that I worked on is in early development for a movie in Hollywood. Probably never going to happen ( two other of my books were optioned but yet to happen so not holding my breath) but it has given me that incentive to get back to something I have done too little over the past 2 years.

Really regardless of age I think we will all find our own way to cope with the new post Covid world that will match our own comfort limits.It may take time but we will get there.

 

[Gabriel]

As one of the older generation I talk to my friend daily. So it comes up. She is a little older than me and with more medical problems and her family are keen to have her move to be with one of them in one of the locations they live around the UK.

She may or may not agree. I tend to think not as she sees them all often anyway and spent 2 weeks over the holidays in Wales. We are both pretty independent and are never out of touch with one another or family. We have pondered the future. I must admit I am more guarded about stepping back out there doing stuff but she knows I have my reasons.

But she is openly planning a visit to see her family in Australia which she would have done 18 months ago but for Covid). She has been there a few times since losing her husband. She is also planning a cruise ship holiday this Summer. Not something I would at this stage be brave enough to consider. She did ask!

Everybody has coped in their own way. These posts have been my way of dealing with things I guess. When done I may have another book to write as I am already missing that challenge especially now the last one that I worked on is in early development for a movie in Hollywood. Probably never going to happen ( two other of my books were optioned but yet to happen so not holdig my breath) but it has given me that incentive to get back to something I have done too little over the past 2 years.

Really regardless of age I think we will all find our own way to cope with the new post Covid world that will match our own comfort limits.It may take time but we will get there.

I agree for most it will be a case of dipping their toe in the water rather than plunging in from the top board, and the prudent thing to do might be to try doing what was enjoyed before as restrictions are lifted.

My concern is less with those who have the independence for foreign travel, even domestic travel, and more with those who find themselves in sheltered housing or care home facilities. Those people will constitute approximately half a million citizens in the coming years, and those are the people who are unlikely to 'find their own way' in the new reality. For them, there may not be a post-COVID world, so the decisions taken now by the authorities will have a continued impact on their quality of life.

 

[Healdplace]

Absolutely right the ones that slip through the cracks are the ones who need the most support. Especially as prces are going to go through the roof for pretty much everything whilst companies have to make up for the missing profits of two or more years.

 

[Healdplace]

I agree for most it will be a case of dipping their toe in the water rather than plunging in from the top board, and the prudent thing to do might be to try doing what was enjoyed before as restrictions are lifted.

My concern is less with those who have the independence for foreign travel, even domestic travel, and more with those who find themselves in sheltered housing or care home facilities. Those people will constitute approximately half a million citizens in the coming years, and those are the people who are unlikely to 'find their own way' in the new reality. For them, there may not be a post-COVID world, so the decisions taken now by the authorities will have a continued impact on their quality of life.

I agree and that was what started this conversation given my experience of that with my mum. I saw first hand how difficult it was then pre pandemic and can see now how Omicron is running rife in care homes in staff and patients and largely being ignored. Social care is a very poorly funded part of the system.

The care home my mum was in was in Wales and they were extraordinary in how they helped me bring her to my house and help refit it and give me support every day. I moved back to England as though she had recovered as far as possible from the stroke then over ten years earlier she was very severely disabled and could not even sit on the edge of the bed (hoisting everywhere was the only way to move her) and she never regained her ability to speak more than the odd word - though happily her comprehension recovered quickly.

When I moved her back to England as she was approaching 90 and grandkids were getting married and things like that which were meaning she really needed to be closer to them to enjoy these things as travel was now too hard everything changed. All the support we had in Wales vanished. It cost a four figure sum for me to move the equipment here which happily the Welsh government let me do and more to refit it into this house. Most of my dwindling savings went on the move as houses here are mch dearer. And instead of the support we had in Wales we had almost none here at all. I was OK with that as I was used to being the main carer and had given up most of my work and all of my media appearances to do it but the stark difference between the nations was obvious. And I had family nearby to help so that was less of a problem than it was in Wales.

So I am aware how fractured this system is and how dependent it appears to be on luck or where you live or if you have the money to cope.

When her wheelchair broke that the NHS had provided after the move (It literally collapsed beneath her in the street) she was left without one as they kept saying it would be replaced but never was. We had to go out and buy a new one or she would never have got out of bed again. I am not complaining as I was able to cope and had family nearby too which made all the dfference. Though most of my savings had gone in the years I was unable to work caring for her and I only had my pension as income.

I still have the hoist on the ceiling some years after mum died. And other things the NHS gave me. I offered them more than once to be taken back - even the wheelchair bought that was all but new - and was told they were not allowed to use anything not brand new they had bought. Even if they worked perfectly. It just seemed like someone sonewhere should be able to join the dots and do something that would make lives better. But bureaucracy and rules and the differing rules between the nations of the UK seems to often get in the way.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS SATURDAY & SUNDAY

Quite good news here - especially as the TV news today claimed that hospital numbers in the NW had doubled in a week. Which is actually not true. Though NW is unsurprisingly rising a lot BUT not by that much and not even the most over the weekend.

Though Monday is always a big admissions day sonumbers isually rise a lot and things might very well change when we get that data this evening.



ADMISSONS:

SAT 2043 & SUN 1772 - BOTH are down from the previous week (2114 & 1781)


REGIONALLY: (v was last week)

LONDON 310 & 312 - was 450 & 319

MIDLANDS 420 & 348 - was 395 & 359

NE & YORKS 421 & 331 - was 309 & 336

NORTH WEST 370 & 330 - was 393 & 326


As you can see NW actually did better than both the Midlands and NW & Yorkshire over the weekend. And better on one of two days than London.



TOTAL ENGLAND INPATIENTS

(FRI 16,163) SAT 16,034 SUN 16,399 - so a rise of 236 over the two days after FALLING on Saturday

Last Week those numbers were (up every day)_

(FRI 12,395) SAT 12,615 SUN 13,151 - so a rise of 756 over the two days.



SUN to SUN weekly rise was 3248 from 13,151 TO 16,399.



As a warning of what to expect later the Monday rise last week was 1059.


Regional numbers: (FRI) SAT./ SUN V LAST SUNDAY

EAST (1440) 1427 / 1440 V 1199

LONDON (3989) 3819 / 3867 V 3744

MIDLANDS (2943) 2951 / 3038 V 2356

NE & YORKS (2419) 2485 / 2612 V 1854

NORTH WEST (2899) 2904 / 3004 V 1965

SOUTH EAST (1606) 1593 / 1582 V 1362

SOUTH WEST (867) 855 / 856 V 671


As you can see the southern regions have fallen well over the weekend - the NW tops 3000 and i up but NOT doubled in the past week as the TV news just clained - it was actually up about 50% DOWN from last week. And NE & Yorkshire has risen the most over the weekend. Consistent with their numbers on Zoe showing them presently rising fastest in reports to the app.



TOTAL ENGLAND VENTILATORS


This is good news.

(FRI 728) SAT 708 SUN 704 - So a FALL of 24 over the weekend to the LOWEST in weeks.

Last week those numbers were

(FRI 782) SAT 765 SUN 769 - A fall of 13 over the weekend and FALL of 65 week to week.

THE NUMBERS ON VENTILATORS ARE FALLING NOTICEABLY AS PATIENTS ARE RISING A LOT - HARD TO SEE THAT IN ANY WAY OTHER THAN PROVING VISIBLY COVID IS MORE INFECTIOUS BUT LESS DANGEROUS



Regional numbers: (FRI) SAT./ SUN V LAST SUNDAY


EAST (81) 79 / 77 V 86

LONDON (224) 220 / 224 V 230

MIDLANDS (113) 114 / 105 V 139

NE & YORKS (90) 87 / 90 V 87

NORTH WEST (93) 89 / 88 V 81

SOUTH EAST (73) 68 / 78 V 93

SOUTH WEST (54) 51 / 42 V 53


The track is downward and we may even see numbers in the 600s any day now which is remarkable given the huge rise in patients and looks like easy to see evidence that Omicron is proving less deadly.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

THIS IS FOR TWO DAYS - SATURDAY & SUNDAY AS USUAL ON MONDAY

BUT NO COMPARISON AS BANK HOLIDAY LAST WEEK AND DATA WAS SPORADIC AND POSTED DIFFERENTLY BUT SEEMS DOWN A BIT BY MY BEST GUESSTIMATE

16 deaths

11,693 cases

25.8% positivity

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

11,827 cases - was 20,217 last week

29.5% positivity - was 34.9% last week

1432 patients - up from 1382 yesterday & 1031 last week

54 ventilted icu - down from 55 yesterday & up from 38 last week

Still not clear if these are doing worse than England but ventiators not yet out of control though rising