COVID Data Thread

[Eds]

Looks like we may be at the peak?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

77 all settings deaths v 97 yesterday & 42 last week

England only 55 v 84 yesterday & 42 last week



142,224 cases v 141,472 yesterday & 157,758 last week

England only 115,998 v 121,228 yesterday & 137,541 last week

Looks pretty clear now, caveats about testing capacity notwithstanding, that we've peaked on cases for the UK as a whole now.

I guess hospitalisation is less certain, dependent on age groups, but patients to peak maybe a couple of weeks time.

Deaths maybe about end of the month? (in SA, still rising 3 weeks after case peak).

The really good news is the near total decoupling of ICU from cases and hospitalisation.

 

[kaz7]

Surely the drop in cases these last few days is because the number went up over the holidays as everyone was testing and now there is a shortage of them and people are not testing as much

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Surely the drop in cases these last few days is because the number went up over the holidays as everyone was testing and now there is a shortage of them and people are not testing as much

 

[kaz7]

View attachment 34162

That will teach me to try and sort out the jungle of numbers and opinion , do we need all that now ?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

That will teach me to try and sort out the jungle of numbers and opinion , do we need all that now ?

Sorry, don't understand the question

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Surely the drop in cases these last few days is because the number went up over the holidays as everyone was testing and now there is a shortage of them and people are not testing as much

To be fair I don't think there is a shortage of tests now Kaz but it did feel that way up until last week. In fact I've just ordered some via the website. I think you're right that less people will test after the holidays but also as less people have symptoms then less people will test because of that too (this would make sense with the Zoe data).

 

[kaz7]

Sorry, don't understand the question

Numbers for every borough and not just the headline numbers of cases , hospital admissions , icu and deaths

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Numbers for every borough and not just the headline numbers of cases , hospital admissions , icu and deaths

There's huge local variation. @Healdplace has a much better handle on that than I do.

But just for instance, here's a visualisation of admissions vs admissions growth rate.

There's a huge spread across the country. You can see how the blue dots (London) are high but falling. NW generally high but still rising (and fast).

 

[Healdplace]

Looks pretty clear now, caveats about testing capacity notwithstanding, that we've peaked on cases for the UK as a whole now.

I guess hospitalisation is less certain, dependent on age groups, but patients to peak maybe a couple of weeks time.

Deaths maybe about end of the month? (in SA, still rising 3 weeks after case peak).

The really good news is the near total decoupling of ICU from cases and hospitalisation.

It is as I noted in the hospital data earlier - the way the ventilator numbers keep on falling and are at their lowest in many weeks in mid winter in England after over 100K cases a day for weeks and with increasing numbers in hospital over past weeks says it all. Especially as it is not deaths rising that is the explanation as these are only very slightly up on where they were pre Christmas and way down on where they were last January as we approached the peak of ventilated patients in mid/late January when there were 5 times as many as now on them in the UK. The apparent lack of this progressing into the lungs with Omicron seems to be what is saving the day - be it the way the virus behaves or the vaccines working or both.