COVID Data Thread

GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 7944

DOWN by 978 from 8922 yesterday


NW Total 18,346

DOWN by 2769 from 21,015 yesterday


GM 43.3% of the NW total today. Up from 42.4% yesterday. Not quite as good as it was a day or two ago but about bang on the expected split of GM v NW.




MANCHESTER 1722 - UP 261 on day & DOWN 161 on week - Pop Score 310 (POP 25,376)

WIGAN 863 - DOWN 342 on day & DOWN 645 on week - Huge falls here today. Pop Score 261 (POP 25,564)

SALFORD 835 - DOWN 55 on day & DOWN 231 on week - Pop Score 318 (POP 26,675) Highest Pop Score across the pandemic - not under threat as 1111 ahead of Wigan in second

OLDHAM 760 - UP 7 on day & DOWN 401 on week - big difference! Pop Score 319* to enter the 25K club. After closing by 7 on Stockport yesterday it LOST 68 to them today. So gap now 250. POP 25,003) * Highest pop score in GM today

STOCKPORT 738 - DOWN 215 on day & DOWN 425 on week - And another huge drop here too. Pop Score 251. (POP 24,753)

BOLTON 721 - DOWN 222 on day & 373 on week - Pop Score 250 - still only occupant of 23K club and gained one point back on Stockport (POP 23,778) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - And now 975 ahead.

ROCHDALE 681 - DOWN 63 on day & DOWN 296 on week. Pop Score 305 (POP 25,444)

TAMESIDE 652 - DOWN 96 on day & DOWN 310 on week. Pop Score 287 (POP 25,375)

TRAFFORD 573 - DOWN 64 on day & 310 on week - but Pop Score of 241 (POP 25,450)

BURY 399 - DOWN 186 on day & DOWN 278 on week. Pop Score 209* - an even better day but into the 25K club (POP 25,141) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today
 
Healdplace said:
GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 7944

DOWN by 978 from 8922 yesterday


NW Total 18,346

DOWN by 2769 from 21,015 yesterday


GM 43.3% of the NW total today. Up from 42.4% yesterday. Not quite as good as it was a day or two ago but about bang on the expected split of GM v NW.




MANCHESTER 1722 - UP 261 on day & DOWN 161 on week - Pop Score 310 (POP 25,376)

WIGAN 863 - DOWN 342 on day & DOWN 645 on week - Huge falls here today. Pop Score 261 (POP 25,564)

SALFORD 835 - DOWN 55 on day & DOWN 231 on week - Pop Score 318 (POP 26,675) Highest Pop Score across the pandemic - not under threat as 1111 ahead of Wigan in second

OLDHAM 760 - UP 7 on day & DOWN 401 on week - big difference! Pop Score 319* to enter the 25K club. After closing by 7 on Stockport yesterday it LOST 68 to them today. So gap now 250. POP 25,003) * Highest pop score in GM today

STOCKPORT 738 - DOWN 215 on day & DOWN 425 on week - And another huge drop here too. Pop Score 251. (POP 24,753)

BOLTON 721 - DOWN 222 on day & 373 on week - Pop Score 250 - still only occupant of 23K club and gained one point back on Stockport (POP 23,778) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - And now 975 ahead.

ROCHDALE 681 - DOWN 63 on day & DOWN 296 on week. Pop Score 305 (POP 25,444)

TAMESIDE 652 - DOWN 96 on day & DOWN 310 on week. Pop Score 287 (POP 25,375)

TRAFFORD 573 - DOWN 64 on day & 310 on week - but Pop Score of 241 (POP 25,450)

BURY 399 - DOWN 186 on day & DOWN 278 on week. Pop Score 209* - an even better day but into the 25K club (POP 25,141) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today
Click to expand...
It looks like Gtr Manchester has had the surge and then peaked much quicker than London did. Great news if that is indeed the case.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
It looks like Gtr Manchester has had the surge and then peaked much quicker than London did. Great news if that is indeed the case.
Click to expand...


Hopefully yes.

London though is still much higher than it was in the weeks before it surged. It kind of went 5000 - 15,000, 29,000 - then fell to 20,000 and has stuck around there for a couple of weeks.

NW has peaked a little lower (I think partly as Greater Manchester drove it first, then North Lancashire and most recently Merseyside and Cheshire which has spaced out the initial peaks a little). GM has started to fall it seems but if it behaves like London will stay for another week or two at least at the kind of numbers it is now. So down on the peak but between there and where it was before the rise started just pre Christmas. There are some good signs from London with patients starting to fall. We need to see where that goes over the coming week or two as NW will by the looks of it be fairly close behind

This is all guesswork partly based on the numbers Zoe App has for the GM boroughs and the London boroughs which are likey good guides to current numbers.

GM boroughs are almost all now over 30,000 on Zoe when one above 30,000 at a time was relatively rare in the past. And places like Salford have broken the barriers of 50,000 and 60,000 which nobody in GM ever has on Zoe before. Almost everywhere in the NW is now on Zoe higher than it has ever been. And though the NW is falling it is slowly and only just starting in GM and not clear if it will be slow and flat or a sharper drop to London's.

Plenty of boroughs in London have gone up to levels that Zoe has never seen before. Possibly one even got to 100,000 but Thurrock and Enfield last I looked were near 80,000 still. These are double most of Greater Manchester even now.

We will have to see how far and how fast any fall there goes. And hope it does not translate too much into increased hospitalisations and deaths though some of that is inevitable from the sheer size of the numbers especially now cases have reached older age groups who are the main place from which deaths will emerge.

Care homes are a special concern on this as the N Ireland data and the Scottish figures posted earlier in here show. Large numbers here are very vulnerable and the numbers are getting large sadly. Deaths will probably follow.

London patients may be falling but we need to see a sustained period of that to maybe half or more where they are now to be reasonably sure how the other regions (probably starting with the North West) will follow.

The unknown still is whether it will be a steep drop like the steep rise on the Zoe graph posted here earlier. Or a steep rise followed by a slower, shallower fall,

We will probably know which in the next week or so.
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER POP SCORES

A much better look to this table since I last posted a few days ago. Everyone has improved. And whilst still very high by GM standards nobody is now near record levels.

Fascinating too to see Manchester and Trafford - two boroughs which have had big numbers recently - now doing the best - and Stockport - who were through the roof for a while too - now moving away from the upper reaches of the table as they fall and stabilise.

Ineed Stockport as you can see has had the best week falling by 292 from 2336 to 2044 . Even Wigan which has had the worst of it in the past week rising and still top is starting to calm down. Though Bolton which climbed most in the past week and has topped 2000 for the first time ever in that period is also now starting to fall.

And from all 10 being over 2000 these numbers are now reducing daily as boroughs drop.

These numbers infer that Omicron burns fast and furious but is relatively short lived in doing so then settles into a less dramatic but so far highish level. We are yet to see - even in London which kicked this off a month ago - how fast it falls from here as in London it remains quite stubbornly 3 times where it was when it was Delta and Omicron came in to conquer all - and though that is 50% better than it has been it is not falling much further here as of yet.

BOROUGH / WEEKLY POP SCORE (CASES PER 100K POPulation) /UP OR DOWN BY IN DAY / SCORE LAST WEEK / SCORE 4 WEEKS AGO

Remember in this table the LOWER the score the better you are doing


MANCHESTER 1824 DOWN 29 / 1964 / 440

TRAFFORD 1966 DOWN 130 / 2125 / 666

BURY 2041 DOWN 146 / 1890 / 509

STOCKPORT 2044 DOWN 144 / 2336 / 508

BOLTON 2061 / DOWN 129 / 1717 / 335

OLDHAM 2062 / DOWN 169 / 2012 / 373

ROCHDALE 2087 / DOWN 132 / 1950 / 510

TAMESIDE 2203 / DOWN 137 / 2122 / 419

SALFORD 2281 / DOWN 88 / 2349 / 494

WIGAN 2377 / DOWN 195 / 2277 / 421
 
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WALES DATA

FRIDAY ONLY AS USUAL ON SUNDAY - SAT & SUN COMBINED TOMORROW

8 deaths - was 14 last week

8923 cases - was 14,036 last week

727 patients (Friday last report) - was 604 last Sunday

39 ventilaed (Friday last report) - was 34 last Sunday


Cases still a bit down in Wales V last week - much as in England it seems - but hospital numbers rising - though less here so far than elsewhere
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

Still falling happily.

Predicted cases 201,013 - Previous days 203,925 - 208,472 (highest ever)

Ongoing symptomatic cases 2,702,930 - previous days 2,673,808 - 2,635,101 V last week 2,332,206

Again these are still falling daily though they will lag the daily cases by a week or so.

REGIONALLY:-

North West is still top but has fallen again by even more than yesterday on 4068 /4510

North East is now second - still rising but by less than yesterday on 3528 / 4260

Yorkshire now third - also rising on 3358 / 3820

London is dropping daily but not fast in fifth on 3065 / 3361

Though they still have many boroughs above all of Greater Manchester.

Hounslow on 81,656 and Lewisham on 74,094 are above everywhere in the North West. Though not by much now. But 50s and 60s are widespread over the south.

In the midlands the area around Leicester is THE hotspot as it has been throughout the pandemic seemingly. We were talking about it in here way back in June 2020 when it was put in lockdown as the rest of the UK were very low and no restructions.Blaby here is now on 60,095.
 
NORTH WEST ON ZOE

Merseyside is really going up and away now.

Liverpool on 59,016 is the highest I have ever seen it. It was half that 10 days ago.

Wirral in the same period has gone 17K to 42,905.

St Helens has dropped just below 60K on 59,307 but has tripled snce Christmas. And Sefton is 49,898

West Lancashire (between Merseyside and Wigan) has gone from 28 to 44K in the past week.

But mid Lancashire to the north of Wigan is very high too - Preston on 55,084. No wonder Wigan is struggling surrpunded by all these high numbers.

Further south Cheshire is still rising but slowly - Cheshire West 33,533 & Cheshire East 34,896 and High Peak is tracking similar numbers.

Meawhile in Greater Manchester here are the numbers:

BURY - top of the tree and falling (the only one) under 30K to 27,989

All the rest are over 30K with a record number over 40K at once (6) and two over 50K.

TRAFFORD 36,476 - up 2K a day

ROCHDALE 40,290 - up 1.5K a day

BOLTON 42,512 - up 3K a day

WIGAN 45,125 - up 2K a day

STOCKPORT 45,740 - up 2K a day

MANCHESTER 48,260 - up 1.5K a day

OLDHAM 48,433 - up 19K in past 3 days - fastest riser in GM by far at the moment

TAMESIDE 51,106 - up 3K a day

SALFORD 59,354 - highest ever score in Greater Manchester - has been up 4K a day but only 1K today
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Only basics on Sunday

2 deaths - was 0 last week

3760 cases - was no report last week
 
SCOTLAND DATA

3 deaths - was 0 last week

7561 cases - 14,080 last week

23.2% positivity

1382 patients - was 1362 yesterday & 953 last week

55 ventilated - was 48 yesterday & 36 last week

THE VENTILATED ICU NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO RISE DAYS AFTER THAT DATA NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT REGARDNG THE RECORD CASES IN CARE HOMES IN SCOTLAND

NOT HARD TO SUSPECT THERE IS A CONNECTION
 
97 all settings deaths

84 in England was 59 last week - these are still rising it seems

141,472 cases - down from 146,390 yesterday & 151,663 last week

England only 121,228 - down from 130,330 yesterday & 123,547 last week
 
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