COVID Data Thread

There's huge local variation. @Healdplace has a much better handle on that than I do.

But just for instance, here's a visualisation of admissions vs admissions growth rate.

There's a huge spread across the country. You can see how the blue dots (London) are high but falling. NW generally high but still rising (and fast).View attachment 34164
Graphs are easier for me to read , thanks
 
Surely the drop in cases these last few days is because the number went up over the holidays as everyone was testing and now there is a shortage of them and people are not testing as much
Cases are down day to day and week to week today despite more tests today than either yesterday or last week.

317,000 or so more than yesterday and 280,000 or so more than last Monday.

This positivity level is what matters. The number England alone totally ignore (the other three home nations see its importance and give it). No idea why England is so wary as the WHO stress its importance too. But the cases as a % of the tests tells you it broadly and if cases fall as tests rise it means lower positivity and is good news.
 
It will be interesting to see if daily hospital admissions even get to the scenario numbers modelled by SAGE on the 18th Dec, of between 3000 to 10000 for continued no restrictions, currently they are averaging just over 2000 which is obviously much better.
 
It will be interesting to see if daily hospital admissions even get to the scenario numbers modelled by SAGE on the 18th Dec, of between 3000 to 10000 for continued no restrictions, currently they are averaging just over 2000 which is obviously much better.
The trend seems to have been flattening not rising so hopefully.

Here are the numbers daily in England from 18 Dec onward

735 - 926 - 1061 - 1098 - 1246 - 1252 - 1020

1281 - 1374 - 1751 - 2082 - 2370 - 2114 - 1781

1819 - 1881 - 2219 - 2101 - 2139 -2043 - 1772

It is 1862 today (or rather Saturday as they are 48 hours behind) V 1819 last week

So it is up again but by less and has been decreasing - note - 735 - 1281 - 1819 - 1862 on the four Saturdays.

So hopefully will start to fall soon. Seems unlikely to suddenly spike into the thousands.
 
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The trend seems to have been flattening not rising so hopefully.

Here are the numbers daily in England from 18 Dec onward

735 - 926 - 1061 - 1098 - 1246 - 1252 - 1020

1281 - 1374 - 1751 - 2082 - 2370 - 2114 - 1781

1819 - 1881 - 2219 - 2101 - 2139 -2043 - 1772

It is 1862 today (or rather Saturday as they are 48 hours behind) V 1819 last week
yes , I made the average of the last 11 days (since 2082) 2029.
 
It will be interesting to see if daily hospital admissions even get to the scenario numbers modelled by SAGE on the 18th Dec, of between 3000 to 10000 for continued no restrictions, currently they are averaging just over 2000 which is obviously much better.
And because only 63%, according to last week's primary care diagnosis, of the people with Covid are being treated for Covid, that 2,000 number might be more like 1,260.
 
yes , I made the average of the last 11 days (since 2082) 2029.
That looks hopeful. I think as the biggest regions have all now started to rise and peak and some seemingly have peaked then there is not much obvious scope in this wave to suddenly see that reverse towards the numbers that were being feared. It would take something unforseen right now. Not impossible. But unlikely. Especially if we watch the care home situation which is y priary concern given the numbers in Scotland and Northern Ireland and the unknown extent of it in England but from those pretty likely to be a factor in the numbers soon.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA TODAY

As expected as it always is on a Monday there was a bigger rise today than over the weekend and the North West had undeniably the worst of it. But it is up less than last Monday.

PATIENTS - UP 721 FROM 16,399 to 17,120

Last week the equivalent was 13,151 to 14,210 going UP 1059

Regionally

East up 57 to 1497, London up 63 to 3930, Midlands up 107 to 3145, NE & Yorkshire up 146 to 2758, South East up 90 to 1672 and South West up 56 to 912.

So everyone is rising by similar numbers really.

NORTH WEST rose today by 202 - to 3206 - easily the most as you can see - the legacy of now being the highest region in cases (several thousand over every other region today).

It will be driving things for a few more days until cases stabilise properly as London did.

But Midlands and Yorkshire as you see are outdoing London now too pretty much every day.


On ventilators there was a rise today of just 3 from 704 to 707.

Last Monday the rise was 8 to 777 - so it is 70 down on last Monday today.

Little change in most places:

East down 1 to 76, London up 1 to 225, Midlands level at 105, NE & Yorkshire up 1 to 91, South East down 5 to 73 and South West up 2 to 44

Given the patient intake it will be no surprise that the NORTH WEST went up the most - by 5 from 88 to 93.
 
93 patients today on ventilators from 3206 in hospital in the NW is 3%

This time last year there were 3456 in hospital in the NW - only a little more - but then 16 days away from the eventual peak at 4346

There were on 10 January 2021 a total of 296 on ventilators in the NW out of those 3456 patients - which is 8.6% of patients then on ventilators - we are ONE THIRD of that level today.

Those 296 rose to a peak of 417 just 12 days later at the peak of the wave last January - by that point 9.6% of total patients were on ventilators.

These numbers show why we can be very hopeful of a lot fewer deaths in 2022 v 2021
 

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