COVID Data Thread

Manchester area hospitals are now reporting the situation last week considered serious due to rising cases and falling staff off with Covid or isolating has eased.

Patient numbers have stopped going up steeply, ICU and ventilator capacity has not been stretched beyond where it was and less staff are off than last week.

This infers the falls in numbers are real not just some statistical quirk or due to fewer tests.

Perhaps the peak in the region has passed or is on the verge of doing so as suspected from what happened in London.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS


As expected a BIG number today. Created by how it is always highest on Tuesday due to weekend catch up registrations - which given we had two days when only 3 regions reported in yesterdays weekend data was always going to be up on usual.Plus the tail end of Christmas lag (a lot of catch up going back weeks in todays numbers shows that). There is also real increase caused by sheer numbers of cases that is inevitable. But this is as yet not a large increase.


294 with 46 North West

No comparison over past 2 weeks owing to the bank holidays

BUT the week before Christmas (TUE 21 DEC) the number was:-

153 with 20 North West


However, as you can see by the huge numbers in London, Midlands, South East & Yorkshire (all four of which had no data at all over the Sat & Sun of the weekend so these are 3 day totals for them) that this probably on its own is responsible for maybe a third of the 141 increase over 3 weeks ago. So there is a rise but it is nothing like the one that it appears to be here. The real number probably nearer 200 than 300. And NW was likely the real highest scorer today.




By region:-

East 1, London 60, Midlands 80, NE & Yorkshire 54, North West 46, South East 34, South West 19

Most by trust:- Birmingham 18, Lewisham 12


North West Trusts:

11 in Liverpool (see Zoe data above for why), 9 in Wigan, 8 in Bolton, 3 each in Mid Cheshire, Morecambe, Southport & Warrington, 2 each in East Lancashire & Pennine Acute AND 1 each in Salford & Stockport



By Age:

Sadly there are several younger deaths today


0-19 (3), 20 - 39 (5), 40 - 59 (21), 60 - 79 (119), 80 PLUS (146)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

After the catch up today we can start to judge the real size of the increase

Here are the current numbers for the first 5 days of the current week of deaths after 5 days (2 - 6 JAN)

WITH the numbers for the same 5 days in the two previous weeks after 5 days


19 - 23 DEC TOTALS:- 72 - 82 - 63 - 74 - 44

26 - 30 DEC TOTALS: - 76 - 81 - 101 - 55 - 42

02 - 06 JAN TOTALS: - 92 - 104 - 121 - 124 - 127


This shows that there is little doubt the numbers ARE rising even allowing for catch up as these are the deaths ON those days so not just reported on those days where catch up could distort them.

How close we are to the peak of these numbers is hard to say. But if deaths do not go above 150/200 at the high point I think would be below predictions by some scientists.

If this seems depressing here are the same numbers for the equivalent weeks a year ago. (Dates are up one to make them the same day of the week)


20 - 24 DEC TOTALS:- 292 - 338 - 305 - 293 - 238

27 - 31 DEC TOTALS:- 371 - 358 - 378 - 372 - 381

03 - 07 JAN TOTALS:- 418 - 504 - 547 - 555 - 557


Think you can see just how much of a better place we are in one year on.

Those numbers last year by the way peaked 12 days after that 557 on 19 JAN at 787.

I can confidently say we will be nowhere near that 12 months later. And if we stay the same proprtion of last year as now we should not quite get up to 200 if the wave peaks around the same date. As it may not, of course.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

16 deaths - was 1 last week

10,392 cases - was 17,259 last week

27.7% positivity - was 35.3% last week

1479 patients - up 47 on yesterday - was 1152 last week (daily rise then was 119)

54 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 42 last week


Numbers here seem to be starting to stabilise too. Though deaths seem high. After very big case numbers over Christmas and New Year not really too surprising.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

1 death (15 last week but that was catch up on several days - see below)

3420 cases (no straight comparison last week as it was 30,423 - which was a total of 4 days worth - so is clearly a fall this week it seems from the likely split of those numbers)

33,666 weekly cases - was 37,419 yesterday & 50,627 last week - again impacted by last week but clearly down

203 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 202 YESTERDAY & 158 LAST WEEK - HAPPILY THIS RASH OF OUTBREAKS IS SLOWING DOWN TOO (IT WAS 190 LAST FRIDAY)

440 patients - was 387 yesterday & 348 last week - big increase here I am guessing care home related

22 ventilated - was 22 yesterday & 25 last week - BUT these not rising hopefully infers that the patients going in are not in immediate need of vemtilation either.
 
TODAYS GRAPHIC OF THE 33,666 WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE. THE OVER 80s (CARE HOME RELATED PROBABLY) ARE STILL UP AT NOW 1.3% (IT WAS A THIRD OF THAT PRE THE CARE HOME QUADRUPLING OVER CHRISTMAS/NEW YEAR). AND 9.3% OVER 60 (THIS WAS UNDER 5% SO HAS DOUBLED WHILST THE OVER 80S HAVE TRIPLED).

STILL WELL BELOW THE NUMBERS IN THE WAVE LAST JANUARY THOUGH WHEN IT WAS DOUBLE THIS

INDEED I JUST CHECKED THE SAME DATE IN 2021

THEN THERE WERE OVER 6% 80 PLUS (5 TIMES TODAY) AND 22% OVER 60 (MORE THAN DOUBLE)

A VERY GOOD SNAPSHOT OF HOW THE VACCINES ARE MODERATING COVID FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE


1641916330241.png
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS

Patients fall - unusual on a Tuesday. Down 181 to 16,939.

Last week they went up 834 to 15,044.

Ventilators also fall by 21 to 686 - lowest in weeks.

Midlands and NE & Yorkshire the only two regions to ADD patients today.

Even North West falls from 3206 to 3129.
 
kaz7 said:
still another 379 lost souls
Click to expand...
It is. But this might even be the highest we get from now on as it was the most likely day to be the high point - with catch up over Christmas (they date back weeks in the numbers today) and Tuesdays always being the biggest day of the week as it adds all the weekend registrations in too.

Think a month ago when Omicron was still an unknown quantity we would have taken cases tumbling and deaths at this kind of high point (they will almost certainly be down again tomorrow). And with hospital numbers falling too. And ventilator patients lower than in any day in November and December in January. Not shooting up into the thousands as they were this time last year.

It is better than I suspect most of us had dare hope.
 
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