COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

TODAYS GRAPH OF ZOE CASES - AS YOU SEE THE CLIMB UPWARD IS NOW CLEAR AND STEEPER THAN IT WAS. WILL IT FLATTEN OFF AS IT DID IN SEPTEMBER - OR RISE STEEPLY AS YOU CAN SEE IT DID FOR WEEKS BETWEEN ABOUT NOW AND LATE JANUARY THIS TIME LAST YEAR? HOPEFULLY NOT AS WE ARE STARTING THIS TIME TO ESCALATE FROM AROUND THE PEAK WE REACHED AFTER A VERY STEEP CLIMB LAST WINTER. BUT THEN WE HAD NO VACCINES TO ALTER THE PATH - THIS YEAR WE DO.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY

BIG RISES TODAY SADLY

Predicted cases

UP from 76, 728 TO 79,838 Biggest rise yet of 3110 after ones of 1130, 2170, 1879 and 1891 in last few days.

That is a rise from 66,600 (UP 13,238 in the week - it was a rise of 11,669 yesterday & 10,787 the day before).

OBVIOUSLY NOT A GOOD RISING PATH HERE



AND

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE rising too.

UP on 1,022,321 FROM 1,012,829 - a RISE of 9492 after rises of 9251 & 8762 the days before.

NOT A GOOD TRACK - THOUGH A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOWING OF THE RISE BUT COULD BE A BLIP


Week to week the RISE is 23,623 FROM 987,062 - it was a rise of 10,685 yesterday



NW FELL TODAY - THE ONLY ONE IN THE UK TO DO SO - AND DROPS INTO 10TH OUT OF 11 NOW IN THE UPPER WATCH ZONE AS LONDON MAKES THE JUMP UP INTO THERE AS LONG EXPECTED AND ONLY SCOTLAND NOW LEFT ALL ALONE IN THE MIDDLE ZONE


NORTH WEST DOWN FROM 927/ 1237 TO 913 / 1224


The 11 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

1: Northern Ireland UP FROM 853 / 2217 TO 961 / 2390

2: Wales UP from 1208 / 1685 TO 1249 / 1745

3: East Midlands UP FROM 1124 / T) 1137 / 1526

4: East UP THE FROM 1131 / 1403 TO 1171 / 1453

5: South East UP A PLACE AND BIG TODAY FROM 1105 / 1299 TO 1183 / 1386

6: West MIdlands another big rise UP FROM 1044 / 1406 TO 1095 / 1471

7: Yorkshire - also UP quite a bit FROM 1000 / 1362 TO 1037 / 1411

8: South West another on the UP track quite a bit FROM 1028 / 1281 TO 1062 / 1322

9: North East another big rise - a lot of them today - UP FROM 782 / 1283 TO 836 / 1360

10: North West falls a place and on this day of rises is DOWN FROM 927 / 1237 TO 913 / 1224

AND FINALLY JOINING THE UPPER WATCH AFTER A SERIES OF RISES:-

11: London UP big FROM 880 / 1107 TO 943 / 1181


And the best in UK is now all alone in the middkl watch zone



12: Scotland (lowest in UK) like EVERYONE BAR THE NORTH WEST UP today FROM 773 / 1101 TO 785 / 1121

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NORTH WEST & GM NUMBERS

TODAY


Wirral is falling fast happily - down another 2000 to 13K. Was 30 K ten days ago.

Wyre falls again also 2K into the 9Ks now.

St Helens which has been in trouble for weeks has been dropping fast and is up slightly but hovering around 8K - a third of where it was.

In Cheshire

Cheshire West is up again out of the lower watch zone on 10,849.

Cheshire East has risen too by another 1000 UP to 14,942

But the best numbers in the NW border Greater Manchester

High Peak is on just 3731




Here is the Greater Manchester 'Zoe league table':

Note still one borough miles ahead. Despite it having risen on the real numbers for 4 days now, A bit puzzling.


TOP TO BOTTOM


1: STOCKPORT 5857 - down 248 today and flattened off but lowest here in a very long time after falling for over three straight weeks now.

NOW THE ONLY ONE IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE BY QUITE SOME MARGIN YET THE LAST FOUR DAYS THE GOV UK CASES HAVE HAD STOCKPORT RISING STEEPLY. NOT SURE WHAT IS WRONG HERE.


2: TAMESIDE 11,036 - DOWN 1000 may yet go into the lower watch zone - Tameside and Stockport BOTH border High Peak by the way - the lowest NW borough.

3: WIGAN 13,744 - DOWN 700 here and IS doing the same in the real numbers after being very high.

4: BURY 15,862- DOWN 900 like its neighbour above going the right way now.

5: OLDHAM 17,959- DOWN by 270 today - hopefully flattening.

6: TRAFFORD 21,742 - UP 331 and been flattish around here for a couple of weeks

7: BOLTON 23,670 UP 61 after high numbers eased down and a bit up and down in real data too

8: ROCHDALE 24,251 - DOWN 700 - becoming flat after big rises too

9: SALFORD 24,931- UP 4700 and climbing by over 4000 a day worryingly fast here of late. Risen from top to almost bottom in 10 days or so./

10: MANCHESTER 27,413 - DOWN 1000 so there are hints of stability here too

SEVEN OF THE TEN BOROUGHS FALLING IS GOOD NEWS - INDEED TWO OF THE THREE RISING ARE DOIN SO BARELY AND ONLY SALFORD IS REALLY SHOOT(ING UP A LOT - BUT WILL THE REAL DATA MATCH? IT IS A BIT HIT AND MISS AS STOCKPORT GOV UK V ZOE NUMBERS REVEAL

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

After Wales down here too

20 deaths - was 29 last week

2932 cases - was 3235 last week

7.2% positivity - was 7.5% last week

712 patients - UP 4 on yesterday - was 786 last week

61 ventilated icu - DOWN 5 on yesterday - was 63 last week

BUT THERE IS YET ANOTHER IT ISSUE THIS TIME IN GLASGOW AND HIGHLANDS HEALTH AREAS SO THEY HAVE NOT CHANGED TODAY AND EITHER MAY BE UP OR DOWN EFFECTING THESE TWO NUMBERS AS THEY JUST REUSED YESTERDAYS NUMBERS IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Bit harder to call here

5 deaths - was 6 last week

1549 cases - was 1681 last week

11,514 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 11,704 YESTERDAY AND 11,122 LAST WEEK - VERY FLAT

33 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 31 YESTERDAY & 32 LAST WEEK - THIS IS A LITTLE LESS HOPEFUL

395 Patients - was 386 yesterday & 419 last week

24 Ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 22 last week

 

[Healdplace]

So week to week

Deaths in all three home nations down and in England hospitals

Cases down in all three home nations - though only collectively by a few hundred (around 10%)

All good news - BUT the hospital numbers in the two nations to report are up on yesterday though down week to week.

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly the good news does not translate to UK when England added

Deaths 147 - well down from 199 (though with the Midlands caveat in England reported above to factor in)

England 113 - was 144 last week



That is OK however cases well up on 47,240 - up 3564 on yesterday - though just 433 on last Thursday's 46,807

Though still the highest cases total since 22 October.

England only 40,382 - UP 3871 on yesterday AND UP 1067 on last Thursday's 39,315

First time in over a month England cases have topped 40,000

 

[Healdplace]

Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 247 cases today (UP 55 from 192 yesterday) - Total cases 43,935 - Pop Score 15,739 (Up 88 today) & Weekly Pop Score 456 (UP 9)

DARTFORD 70 cases today (DOWN 5 from 75 yesterday) - Total cases 18,944 - Pop Score 16,610 (Up 61 today) & Weekly Pop Score 347 (DOWN 2)

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (TUESDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

659 V 713 last week


SO ADMISSIONS DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND FROM 808 THE WEEK BEFORE



London 81 v 92 (DOWN 11), Midlands 142 v 147 (DOWN 5), NE & Yorkshire 90 V 120 (DOWN 30) & North West 99 v 116 (DOWN 17)





PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6062 / 6068 Today.

UP by 6 The first rise on a Thursday in a month.


Last Week the numbers were

6412 / 6336

Down by 76



A week to week FALL of 268 today. It was a week to week fall of 350 yesterday & 366 and 440 the days before.

The numbers have been slowly changing direction as you can see.


Last week patients were DOWN week to week by 525 (6861 TO 6336)

Still falling but the drop is less



REGIONALLY London UP 16 at 1028, Midlands UP 16 at 1181 , NE & Yorks UP 5 to 1108 & NW DOWN 23 to 853

Week to week London (DOWN 45), Midlands (DOWN 36), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 125), East (DOWN 60), South East (DOWN 22) , South West (UP 24) and North West (DOWN 81) over the last 7 days.

So remarkably only the North West of the four large regions fell today and by more than South East and South West the only other two fallers - in their case by less - 10 and 3.


VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


783 / 790 Today UP 7


Last week the numbers were 792 / 779 DOWN 13


Week to week today ventilators are UP by 11 - the firt signs of a reversal here just as with patients.

Last week they were DOWN week to week by 63



REGIONALLY London has 170 (DOWN 3), Midlands 160 (UP 7), NE & Yorkshire 128 (UP 5)
& North West 102 (UP 6)



NORTH WEST NOW DOWN WEEK TO WEEK BY 3 (105 - 102)


Others week to week : East UP 6 (81-87), London DOWN 3 (173 -170). Midlands UP 12 (148 - 160), NE & Yorkshire UP 2 (126 - 128), South East UP 4 (81 - 85) & South West DOWN 7 (65 - 58).

 

[Healdplace]

UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY


UK PATIENTS NOW WELL UNDER 8000


TINY CHANGES BUT BOTH UPWARD ONES

PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6068, N IRELAND 395 , SCOTLAND 712 , WALES 476 UK TOTAL 7651 (UP 7)

Every nation was up today bar Wales



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 790, N IRELAND 24, SCOTLAND 61, WALES 54 UK TOTAL 929 ( UP 1)


Only England up today