COVID Data Thread

[salfordbluetrue]

For comparison here are the North West patients over those same two weeks: They are starting to rise too but not remotely like London - yet:

784 - 764 - 842 - 796 - 818 - 811 - 832 - 829 - 806 - 830 - 852 - 846 - 856 - 848 - 859

NW a rise of about 10% over the 2 weeks - London a rise of 50%

That is probably a guide to the impact of Omicron on hospital numbers

Or it could just be a seasonal rise with London having a far higher work at home % going out partying

 

[Healdplace]

Or it could just be a seasonal rise with London having a far higher work at home % going out partying

Well it could be many things. But if cases go up and the numbers who enter hospital go up at the same time there will most likely be some kind of direct relationship between the two.

We would not have any indication of whether relative percentages of Delta or Omicron create higher numbers or lower numbers without knowing which are which that we only do largely now by extrapolation from the few tests that are taken that far to identify.

They MAY type test all in hospital. Does anyone know if they do? But if so I expect that will add a further lag into the numbers and we likely would not yet have enough evidence to be sure.

This will only gradually become clearer as the days progress.

 

[salfordbluetrue]

Well it could be many things. But if cases go up and the numbers who enter hospital go up at the same time there will most likely be some kind of direct relationship between the two.

We would not have any indication of whether relative percentages of Delta or Omicron create higher numbers or lower numbers without knowing which are which that we only do largely now by extrapolation from the few tests that are taken that far to identify.

They MAY type test all in hospital. Does anyone know if they do? But if so I expect that will add a further lag into the numbers and we likely would not yet have enough evidence to be sure.

This will only gradually become clearer as the days progress.

I dd hear a mention of hospitals registering the difference but it was difficult so the odd one, i am a bit of a cynic so i expect all to do so in the future but whether we see the figure is dependent on what the chemical companies can use.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA



9 deaths - was 12 last week

5917 cases - was 4087 last week

12.2% positivity - was 9.9% last week

494 patients - was 522 yesterday & 552 last week

34 ventilated - was 33 yesterday & 33 last week



CASES WELL UP BY NEARLY 50% WEEK TO WEEK

BUT HOSPITAL NUMBERS STILL DROPPING - BELOW 500 PATIENTS FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 28 AUGUST!

OMICRON MAY BE HERE BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT YET SWAMPING THE NHS IN SCOTLAND

THIS LOOKS LIKE FURTHER EVIDENCE THE BOOSTERS ARE WORKING

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

5 deaths - was 3 last week

2075 cases - was 1446 last week



ALL WE GET AT WEEKENDS - A BIG CASES RISE THIS WEEK PERHAPS OMICRON HAS CROSSED THE IRISH SEA

 

[Healdplace]

Just to remind - no Welsh data on Saturdays. That from Friday is released tomorrow and today & tomorrow as one on Monday. This is true every week.

 

[kaz7]

Speaking to reporters from Chelsea's Stamford Bridge football ground which is being used as a vaccination centre this weekend, Sadiq Khan said he has been meeting with colleagues from the NHS, councils and the fire service about the rise in infections of the COVID variant.

While no new measures have been announced, he said: "Hospital admissions are going up but also staff absences are going up by massive levels, so I have taken the decision, along with our partners, to declare a major incident.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS

Weekly Case Totals


Probably to nobody's surprise ALL TEN boroughs now have over 1000 cases a week in the past 7 days & four over 2000 is unprecedented.


Oldham 1138, Tameside 1185, Rochdale 1317, Bolton 1388, Bury 1610, Wigan 1722, Salford 2021, Stockport 2197, Trafford 2255, Manchester 3985

Weekly test totals are interesting though..

 

[Healdplace]

Staff having to self isolate in places like hospitals, power stations, police & ambulance, supermarkets etc as a result of the high infectivity of Omicron is in many ways more concerning even if it is less virulent as we may have to lock down for that because society would not be able to otherwise cope mid winter if we had to go back to 1970s style power cuts or rationing. All non essential things likely would then have to be closed for a week or two whilst the majority were unable to mix.

So it is not all about how deadly Omicron is. What we already know from what is happening in London creates a different major challenge the other variants did not. Concentrating people being off work all at once is the elephant in the room here.

 

[True_Blue69]

Staff having to self isolate in places like hospitals, power stations, police & ambulance, supermarkets etc as a result of the high infectivity of Omicron is in many ways more concerning even if it is less virulent as we may have to lock down for that because society would not be abe o cope mid winter if we had to go back to 1970s stye power cuts.

Who has suggested there may be power cuts? I’m not doubting the severity of the situation but isn’t this taking it to another level?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Well it could be many things. But if cases go up and the numbers who enter hospital go up at the same time there will most likely be some kind of direct relationship between the two.

We would not have any indication of whether relative percentages of Delta or Omicron create higher numbers or lower numbers without knowing which are which that we only do largely now by extrapolation from the few tests that are taken that far to identify.

They MAY type test all in hospital. Does anyone know if they do? But if so I expect that will add a further lag into the numbers and we likely would not yet have enough evidence to be sure.

This will only gradually become clearer as the days progress.

They really need to be open and transparent on admissions ‘with’ and admissions ‘because’, given the current high levels in circulation.

 

[Healdplace]

Who has suggested there may be power cuts? I’m not doubting the severity of the situation but isn’t this taking it to another level?

Nobody has suggested it as far as I know. I am just pointing out that specialist jobs that cannot easily be covered for are a problem if millions are all catching a mild disease and having to self isolate at once because Omicron cases come in a narrow window not spread over months like Delta. They will have to figure out workarounds.

 

[Healdplace]

125 all settings deaths

90,418 cases

Good news. A fall.

But only 1267 in England as most is due to no Wales data on Saturdays.

Even so the rise day to day has been slowing not accelerating.

The England week to week rise is 33,886 - down from 34,785 yesterday

 

[M18CTID]

125 all settings deaths

90,418 cases

Good news. A fall.

But only 1267 in England as most is due to no Wales data on Saturdays.

Even so the rise day to day has been slowing not accelerating.

Unexpected good news in terms of case numbers. I doubt that we’ve already peaked but it will be interesting to see what effect Omicron has on case numbers from hereon in vs South Africa. We know that it’s so much more easy to catch it if you’ve already had Covid previously but could it be that the large number of boosters (not something SA can fall back on) are helping negate the chance of a lot of people getting infected which in turn leads to far less days of exponential case rises compared to SA?

 

[Healdplace]

Cases in London DOWN from 26,608 to 25,551

Cases in North West UP from 7999 to 8309

 

[Len Rum]

125 all settings deaths

90,418 cases

Good news. A fall.

But only 1267 in England as most is due to no Wales data on Saturdays.

Even so the rise day to day has been slowing not accelerating.

The England week to week rise is 33,886 - down from 34,785 yesterday

Do we know how many of the 90k cases are omicron?

 

[kaz7]

Do we know how many of the 90k cases are omicron?

The UK Health Security Agency confirmed an additional 10,059 cases of the new variant, three times as many as yesterday (3,201) and taking the total number detected to 24,968.

 

[Healdplace]

If only 10,000 today were Omicron out of 90,000 then how can anywhere be mostly Omicron as they say London has been for a few days? Even if all 10,000 were today that is less than half the London cases.

So there seems to be a lot of estimating going on around the numbers. Unless I am missing something obvious.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

If only 10,000 today were Omicron out of 90,000 then how can anywhere be mostly Omicron as they say London has been for a few days? Even if all 10,000 were today that is less than half the London cases.

So there seems to be a lot of estimating going on around the numbers. Unless I am missing something obvious.

Are they only largely testing samples in and around London for Omicron?

 

[Healdplace]

Are they only largely testing samples in and around London for Omicron?

Even if they were that number added today is not even half the case number reported in London today. And the earlier days are way lower. But the media have reported over 50% for Omicron in London for a few days. Just trying to square those numbers.

Perhaps they just mean test results FROM today that will not be added to cases until tomorrow or the day after as the daily number is a sum of tests done spread over several days?