COVID Data Thread

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

2 deaths - was 3 last week

1798 cases - was 1548 last week



ALL WE GET AT WEEKENDS
 
Cases well down again to 82,886 - despite 3462 from Wales today v zero Wales yesterday. So big fall in England.

A lot may not be testing as symptoms mild and they are not wanting to isolate over Christmas.

England only 71,702 - down 10,724 on yesterday & Up 30,989 on last week.

Deaths 45 in UK - was 52 last Sunday.

38 in England - was 44 last Sunday.
 
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That case up and down is pretty close to the UK numbers over the past few days.

Weekend is obviously a factor. But if this sharp rapid rise and sharp but slower fall continues the match will look closer still.

Not sure what it means but IF we really are talking truly milder cases then maybe the milder cases aself filter out as time goes on. Reducing numbers a bit.

Just guessing,
 
@Healdplace is there any data for manchester/north west today, god knows if anybody else follows your data updates but I do, and only last night said to my wife that I would wait and see what todays update was before deciding whether i should stop working until after Christmas, unfortunately I waited too long and my wife tested positive this morning.
 
@Healdplace is there any data for manchester/north west today, god knows if anybody else follows your data updates but I do, and only last night said to my wife that I would wait and see what todays update was before deciding whether i should stop working until after Christmas, unfortunately I waited too long and my wife tested positive this morning.
Yes, sorry bit behind today with Christmas etc and the match.

Pretty much all regions down.

NORTH WEST

6833 - down 1476 on yesterday's 8309 - Up 2405 on last Sundays 4428

Greater Manchester 3142 of that 6833 - 46% well down on the over 50% yesterday,

Week to week though GM up from 1710 by 1432 of the NW rise of 2405. Which is still well over 50%

Every borough down on the day - some by more than others But everyone well up on last week, of course. Though in a couple of days that week to week influence will lessen as cases are not as yet shooting up any more so things will even out.

Manchester down nearly 500 to 725. Highest score. Salford next highest on 366. Down 82.

Rochdale lowest on 192. Down 55.

Will post the full details later.
 
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I know it is weekend and cases tend to be lower and are highest Tues/Wed/Thur/Fri so we should be cautious until the next few days progress but it is hard not to see a similar effect to what happened in South Africa.

Sudden dramatic short sharp rise and a equally sudden drop downward but a little less steep.

Things may change but the weekend numbers on apparently not lower testing numbers (according to the other thread here) are not (yet) leading to cases like any of the predictions about doubling every two or three days.

We did for a few days, flattened off and now seem to be going down.

The South African data on how remarkaby milder it is - almost an entirely different disease to Delta - is being backed up by people here who have had Delta and have now caught this. Many seem to be saying they hardly recognise it as the same thing. Hospitals are finding more people test positive this time than in past waves who came into hospital for other things and had no clue they also had Covid. This is reported now in South Africa and London where the most Omicron cases have appeared over the past two weeks.

Early days and things could yet change as you have to assume our scientists are not utterly wrong about all they have been saying up to now, but I am starting to think this might be a Christmas present not a disaster.

Though, of course, another variant might yet emerge. But hard to see what would be more infective than this one is which is presumably the first thing it has to do to conquer Omicron.
 
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I know it is weekend and cases tend to be lower and are highest Tues/Wed/Thur/Fri so we should be cautious until the next few days progress but it is hard not to see a similar effect to what happened in South Africa.

Sudden dramatic short sharp rise and a equally sudden drop downward but a little less steep.

Things may change but the weekend numbers on apparently not lower testing numbers (according to the other thread here) are not (yet) leading to cases like any of the predictions about doubling every two or three days.

We did for a few days, flattened off and now seem to be going down.

The South African data on how remarkaby milder it is - almost an entirely different disease to Delta - is being backed up by people here who have had Delta and have now caught this. Many seem to be saying they hardly recognise it as the same thing. Hospitals are finding more people test positive this time than in past waves who came into hospital for other things and had no clue they also had Covid. This is reported now in South Africa and London where the most Omicron cases have appeared over the past two weeks.

Early days and things could yet change as you have to assume our scientists are not utterly wrong about all they have been saying up to now, but I am starting to think this might be a Christmas present not a disaster.

Though, of course, another variant might yet emerge. But hard to see what would be more infective than this one is which is presumably the first thing it has to do to conquer Omicron.
You can roughly calculate by the Dutch lockdown dates, today until Jan 17th, when the authorities (UK/European) will have their own data to decide what to do. They’ll probably have younger people presenting this week and then in a couple of weeks it will work it’s way to older people. However, they’ll then have to wait and see how many/few go on to require ICU treatment, so that week from the 10th to the 17th will likely be key.
That might be frustrating for many of us because we’ve been tracking the news from South Africa and expect things to move faster. Anyway, that’s just my hunch and things may indeed move faster, but the Dutch are basing their decisions largely on the British circumstances.
 
Makes sense Gabriel. They have to be cautious and plan for the worst given the timing. Had this happened not just before Christmas the super spreader circumstance of mixing generations that naturally creates would be radically less. I think it is already fairly clear this will be less serious amongst younger age groups but vulnerable older ages are less easy to call as immune systems will be less robust and underlying health factors Omicron might trigger not yet known. We have to rely more on the vaccines which we know to be a bit less effective V Omicron but not how significant that will be in the older popultions of Europe V South Africa.
 
Be interesting to see if the doubling every day continues when omicron easts the delta cases given overall cases are not rising much
 
I am struggling to understand the link between this doubling and the falling number of cases in regions (such as London) where Omicron has supposed to have been dominant for a few day now. Not a math whizz but it seems counter intuitive that it would even result in what we are seeing. An initial big rise then fall. Should it not be the other way round?
 
LONDON DOWN from 25,551 TO 21,594 - down more than yesterday. Was 9969 last week.

SOUTH EAST DOWN from 13,763 TO 13,340. Was 7458 last week

EAST DOWN from 9996 TO 8947. Was 4703 last week.

All the southern regions down for second day running.



NORTH WEST DOWN from 8309 TO 6833. Was 4428 last week


Others:

East Midlands DOWN from 6453 TO 4633 . Was 3085 last week.

West Midlands DOWN from 5543 TO 4309. Was 2801 last week.

South West UP from 5057 TO 5167. Was 3408 last week. THE ONLY RISER TODAY BUT BY JUST 110

Yorkshire DOWN from 4376 TO 4074. Was 3616 last week.

North East DOWN from 1503 TO 1502. Was 1212 last week.


GREATER MANCHESTER 3142 . Out of the 6833 North West.

GM is 46% of the North West today. Down from 52% yesterday.
 
Greater Manchester a record high.


3142 cases today - DOWN by 1175 on yesterday - from the fall of 1476 in the NW

That is more than three quarters of the entire regional fall today just in Greater Manchester.

Obviously very good day for GM


Week to week GM is up by 1432 from 1710 - from the NW rise of 2405.

That is sadly miles over expectation (60% in fact) of the NW total.



So Greater Manchester remains a very significant factor in the England case numbers.



Here are the cases per borough - No bad new records at all today is the best news. But a record fall day to day as Manchester had!





MANCHESTER 725 - down 479 on yesterday & Up 432 on last week POP SCORE 130 (now 20,169)


SALFORD 366 - down 82 on yesterday & Up 199 on last week POP SCORE 139 (now 20,633) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic & Highest Pop Score today.


STOCKPORT 350 - down 80 on yesterday & Up 167 on last week POP SCORE 119 (now 19,037) Lowest pop score in GM across the pandemic (for another day!) Last in GM to enter the 19K club today.


TRAFFORD 313 - down 149 on yesterday & Up 151 on last week POP SCORE 131 (now 19,958) Now 921 ahead of Stockport and will join most of GM in the 20K club tomorrow.

WIGAN 279 - down 51 on yesterday & Up 84 on last week POP SCORE 84 (now 19,913) Will also join the 20K club tomorrow or Tuesday.


BURY 243 - down 55 on yesterday & Up 45 on last week POP SCORE 127 (now 20,078) DID join the 20K club today.


TAMESIDE 234 - down 33 on yesterday & up 123 on last week POP SCORE 104 (now 19,837). Couple of days away from the 20K club as well.


BOLTON 233 - down 71 on yesterday & up 77 on last week POP SCORE 81* (now 19,082) - Cuts the gap by 38 again to now just be 45 ahead of Stockport so a day or at most two from taking over from there as the now inevitable lead and lowest pop score across the pandemic - a distant dream when Delta arrived there in April and Bolton was on the national news.* Lowest Pop Score in GM today.


OLDHAM 207 - down 120 on yesterday & up 82 on last week POP SCORE 87 (now 20,038) - another to enter the 20K club but goes behind Bury who crashed into there with them but via a higher Pop Score.


ROCHDALE 192 - down 55 on yesterday & up 72 on last week POP SCORE 86 (now 20,447) Now 186 behind Salford who have the highest Pop Score across the pandemic.


Salford could be the first into the 21K club by Wednesday.

5 in the 19K club and 5 in the 20K club today but that will likely be 3 - 7 tomorrow and 2 - 8 by Tuesday.

The boroughs are notably coming closer together in numbers than they ever have been across the pandemic.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS

Weekly Case Totals



Manchester's score over 5000 is the first time ever any borough has got there in GM during the pandemic. And pretty much everywhere is at their highest numbers recorded for a week.


Oldham 1335, Rochdale 1387, Tameside 1421, Bolton 1627, Bury 1753, Wigan 1865, Salford 2417, Trafford 2519, Stockport 2545, Manchester 5087
 
GREATER MANCHESTER POP SCORES

After today: CURRENT POP SCORE (Up or Down Past Week) / Pop Score as it was 4 Weeks Ago today


OLDHAM 562 (Up 187) / 284

WIGAN 564 (Up 131) / 377

BOLTON 565 (Up 219) / 352

ROCHDALE 620 (Up 139) / 433

TAMESIDE 626 (Up 217) / 394

STOCKPORT 865 (Up 357) / 324

MANCHESTER 915 (Up 471) / 310

BURY 919 (Up 365 / 395

SALFORD 920 (Up 412) / 400

TRAFFORD 1060 (Up 395) / 386




Trafford is the first GM borough to ever top 1000 for a weekly Pop Score.

Manchester, Salford and Bury are heading close to joining them.

Stockport too at its highest ever number.

Every borough tops 560 now.

Hopefully if the falls of past couple of days do continue this will be a few day phenomenon and numbers will start to go down as the week progresses.
 
WALES DATA

Sat & Sun combined as always on a Monday - but yikes - big jump in the week by 50%

8 deaths - was 8 last week

6796 cases - was 4543 last week

13.6% positivity - was 10.5% last week

362 patients (Friday) - was 390 last week

33 ventilated (Friday) - was 37 last week


Looks like Omicron has arrived in the principality but as yet no increases in hospital - some will surely follow though
 
ZOE APP DATA

Has turned into Nightmare on Omicron Street

Since I last reported on Friday the numbers have sadly gone through the roof like a rocket.

Everywhere now has record measures for pretty much everything. Not that this will be a surprise.

LOOK AT THE VERTICAL LINE ON THE CASES GRAPH BELOW

THAT VERTICAL LINE ON THE FAR RIGHT FOR LAST FEW DAYS LOOKS VERY LIKE THE SOUTH AFRICA ONES

AS YOU CAN SEE NOW AT A RECORD HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANDEMIC -

WITH 1,360,993 people in the UK now having ongoing Covid infections. Well above the peak in January.

Today's Predicted UK Cases also escalating daily. Today on 129, 970 - again a Zoe record.

1640003405780.png
 
I am struggling to understand the link between this doubling and the falling number of cases in regions (such as London) where Omicron has supposed to have been dominant for a few day now. Not a math whizz but it seems counter intuitive that it would even result in what we are seeing. An initial big rise then fall. Should it not be the other way round?

I think a few things are going on with it at the moment. 1 is that people are changing behaviors which is slowing it down. no one wants to be sick over christmas so people are avoiding crowds/ trains etc. I know couple of families that have kept there kids home from school in the last few days to hope they dont catch something over Christmas.

I've also been trying to think of Omicron in terms of lots of smaller epidemics. its so infectious that its infecting everyone in small pockets / locales so is in effect burning its self out in that cohort.
 
ZOE REGIONS

Every single UK Region on Zoe is now in the dark red highest watch zone. First time in many months.

The numbers are remarkable too.

Below is the list in order from LONDON now top of the pile to NORTH EAST now lowest (both results that ma6ch closely the daily reported Gov UK cases as you will see day to day).

I post alongside where each was on 4 days ago so you can see the weekend jump.

LONDON AS YOU CAN SEE IS MILES AHEAD OF THE REST AND THE ONLY ONE WITH TOTALLY UNPREDECENTED HIGH NUMBERS ACROSS THE PANDEMIC AS OF YET - NORTH WEST HIGHEST OUTSIDE THE SOUTH OF ENGLAND AND UP THE MOST IN THE PAST FEW DAYS OTHER THAN LONDON

Again numbers well matched in the Gov UK daily data


REGION // TODAY // WAS END OF LAST WEEK // V - ONE WEEK AGO



LONDON 4002/4662 WAS 1645 / 1973 V 1308 / 1600

EAST 1876 / 2230 WAS 1327 / 1646 V 1238 / 1542

SOUTH EAST 1919 / 2175 WAS 1590 / 1833 V 1305 / 1527


NORTH WEST 1473 / 1868 WAS 930 / 1266 V 962 / 1263


EAST MIDLANDS 1446 / 1890 WAS 1199 / 1623 V 1040 / 1431

NORTHERN IRELAND 950 / 2355 WAS 769 / 2162 V 856 / 2268

WALES 1212 / 1703 WAS 1273 / 1865 V 1216 / 1727 - THIS IS ACTUALLY FLAT

YORKSHIRE 1215 / 1624 WAS 876 / 1249 V 960 / 1273

WEST MIDLANDS 1196 / 1599 WAS 939 / 1317 V 1015 / 1400

SOUTH WEST 1180 / 1468 WAS 1071 / 1352 V 1077 / 1352

SCOTLAND 1094 / 1483 WAS 797 / 1147 V 761 / 1099

NORTH EAST 894 / 1468 WAS 868 / 1459 V 801 / 1356


VERY EASY TO SEE THE REGIONS WHERE OMICRON IS ACTIVELY TAKING OVER AND THOSE NOT - AS YET.

NORTH EAST IS DOING REMARKABLY WELL - AND SOUTH WEST THT HAD THAT HUGE PRE OMICRON WAVE UP TO A WEEK OR SO AGO - ARE ESCAPING SO FAR THE BEST OF ALL

PERHAPS HAVING HAD THE MOST RECENTLY INFECTED (WITH DELTA) PEOPLE?
 
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