COVID Data Thread

NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY


Zoe again had Stockport far and away the best in GM and falling for over two weeks straight from highest to lowest on their app but for the fifth day running in the Gov UK numbers it was nowhere near where Zoe is putting it and up more today than yesterday. So whilst SK is not in major trouble and is better than it was 2 or 3 weeks ago Zoe is exagerating its success right now.



NORTH WEST UP DAY TO DAY 695 TO 4735. Biggest jump here in a while on a day when Zoe had North West as the only region falling!

Greater Manchester UP 121 of that rise ON 1721 - this is well below expectation. Pretty good news for a rise. Same thing happened yesterday so in that sense GM is performing well. But still one of the highest GM numbers over the past month.

Manchester is DOWN 44 on 248 , (top score), Wigan second place again on 209 - up 30, Salford (which Zoe is seeing right) up again by 38 on 206. Stockport is up 3 on 173, Tameside up 41 on 171, Trafford up by 66 on 162, Bolton up 21 on 150, Rochdale down 20 on 150, Bury up 16 on 130, Oldham down 9 on 122 - THAT is the lowest score in GM today.


HOWEVER WEEK TO WEEK:

NORTH WEST IS UP 496 FROM 4239. BUT GREATER MANCHESTER IS ACTUALLY UP by 166 FROM 1555.

This is a little below par which with a rise is always good. Certainly no issue here relatively.


HERE

UP WEEK TO WEEK are Salford by 63, Stockport by 45, Trafford by 37. Rochdale by 24, Tameside 22, Oldham by 16, Manchester by 9

AS you see the damage not as bad outside the top 3.

DOWN WEEK TO WEEK are Bolton by 25, Bury by 14 and Wigan by 11.

As Trafford and Stockport had similar week to week rises, the daily rise - 66 v 3 in favour of Stockport - means it had a much better day overall.As a result Stockport GAINED 10 pop score points from Trafford (59 v 69) today and increased its lead as the lowest Pop Score across the pandemic to 473.

Salford had the worst day in GM today as the numbers above showed and as Zoe got right here by the way too - and paid for it with the highest Pop Score in GM today - 78
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 8154 - UP 991 V 7514 UP 640 wk to wk - way over every other regions still

LONDON 5319 - UP 862 V 4924 - UP 395 wk to wk. - biggest London number in many weeks

EAST 4901 - UP 682 V 4145 - UP 756 wk to wk

NORTH WEST 4735 - UP 695 V 4239 - UP 496 wk to wk

SOUTH WEST 4438 - DOWN 96 V 4510 -DOWN 72 wk to wk

THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE STILL THE MAIN REASON ENGLAND IS UP BUT SOUTH WEST FALLS AND IS BELOW NORTH WEST AND NORTH WEST TODAY IS RIGHT UP THERE IN THE PACK THOUGH FAR BEHIND SOUTH EAST



WEST MIDLANDS 3905 - UP 560 V 4455 - DOWN 550 week to week

EAST MIDLANDS 3706 - UP 761 V 3782 - DOWN 76 Wk to wk

YORKSHIRE 3360 - UP 681 V 3366 - DOWN 6 wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1112 - DOWN 608 V 1554 - - DOWN 442 week to week


VERY TELLING THAT ALL THE REGIONS OUTSIDE THE SOUTH AND THE SOUTH WEST FALL WEEK TO WEEK BUT THE OTHER SOUTHERN REGIONS AND NOW THE NORTH WEST ARE UP FAIRLY BIG.

THIS MAY BE A ONE OFF DAY OR THE START OF A TREND. GUESS WE WILL SEE.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 714, Bury 740, Tameside 923, Trafford 968, Rochdale 990, Bolton 1005, Stockport 1125, Salford 1177, Wigan 1265, Manchester 1798



Oldham still best but it is losing ground fast to an improving Bury. Manchester now a whopping 533 ahead of Wigan. Stockport was up again too today and over 1100 cases again and well above an improving Bolton. And not that far off a struggling Salford. Wigan is closing on those two as well.
 
Healdplace said:
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 8154 - UP 991 V 7514 UP 640 wk to wk - way over every other regions still

LONDON 5319 - UP 862 V 4924 - UP 395 wk to wk. - biggest London number in many weeks

EAST 4901 - UP 682 V 4145 - UP 756 wk to wk

NORTH WEST 4735 - UP 695 V 4239 - UP 496 wk to wk

SOUTH WEST 4438 - DOWN 96 V 4510 -DOWN 72 wk to wk

THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE STILL THE MAIN REASON ENGLAND IS UP BUT SOUTH WEST FALLS AND IS BELOW NORTH WEST AND NORTH WEST TODAY IS RIGHT UP THERE IN THE PACK THOUGH FAR BEHIND SOUTH EAST



WEST MIDLANDS 3905 - UP 560 V 4455 - DOWN 550 week to week

EAST MIDLANDS 3706 - UP 761 V 3782 - DOWN 76 Wk to wk

YORKSHIRE 3360 - UP 681 V 3366 - DOWN 6 wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1112 - DOWN 608 V 1554 - - DOWN 442 week to week


VERY TELLING THAT ALL THE REGIONS OUTSIDE THE SOUTH AND THE SOUTH WEST FALL WEEK TO WEEK BUT THE OTHER SOUTHERN REGIONS AND NOW THE NORTH WEST ARE UP FAIRLY BIG.

THIS MAY BE A ONE OFF DAY OR THE START OF A TREND. GUESS WE WILL SEE.
Click to expand...

I am loathe to say this but I have wanted to do for a while. Focussing this much on Covid everyday can’t be good for you? Feel free to tell me to fuckoff.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 300 (UP 6) V 268 RISING 32 // 122 c v 106 c // POP SCORE 51 - UP TO 18,647 -* Lowest GM Pop Score today

MANCHESTER 324 (UP 2) V 289 RISING 35 // 248 c v 239 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 18,342

BOLTON 349 (DOWN 8) V 332 RISING 17 // 150 c v 175 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 17,729

WIGAN 382 (DOWN 4) V 410 DOWN 28 // 209 c v 220 c // POP SCORE 63 - UP TO 18,321 - * Joint highest GM Pop Score today

STOCKPORT 383 (UP 16) V 307 RISING 76 // 173 c v 128 c // POP SCORE 59 - UP TO 17,087 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

BURY 388 (DOWN 7) V 392 DOWN 4 // 130 c v 144 c // POP SCORE 68 - UP TO 18,024

TAMESIDE 406 (UP 9) V 385 RISING 21 // 171 c v 149 c // POP SCORE 75 - UP TO 18,242

TRAFFORD 408 (UP 16) V 362 RISING 46 // 162 c v 125 c // POP SCORE 69 * - UP TO 17,560 - * Lowest GM Pop Score today

ROCHDALE 442 (UP 10) V 415 RISING 27 // 150 c v 126 c // POP SCORE 67 - UP TO 18,767 * Highest GM Pop Score today and Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

SALFORD 448 (UP 24) V 340 RISING 108 // 206 c v 143 c // POP SCORE 78 UP TO 18,635




STOCKPORT HAD ANOTHER POOR DAY AND MOVES UP ANOTHER PLACE AND ONLY SALFORD HAD A WORSE DAY AND IS RISING MORE THAN STOCKPORT OVER THE WEEK. SALFORD ALSO TOOK OVER AS THE HIGHEST POP SCORE IN GM.

NOW 4 IN THE 400s AND AND STOCKPORT COULD EASILY MAKE IT 5 TOMORROW IF IT HAS ANOTHER DAY LIKE THE LAST FIVE. AND A WEEK AGO IT WAS ON THE VERGE OF GOING INTO THE 200s!

AND NOW NOBODY IS IN THERE AS OLDHAM MOVED UP ONTO EXACTLY 300 TODAY.

ONLY WIGAN AND BURY ARE FALLING NOW WEEK TO WEEK - BURY ONLY JUST


Trafford actually had a badenough day to lose another 10 Pop Score points to Stockport today increasing the gap to 473.

At the other extreme of the Pop Score battle across the whole pandemic Salford is likely to overtake Oldham tomorrow and become the one chasing Rochdale for highest Pop Score across the pandemic.It could even catch it in a week or so if its current numbers go on.

Bury did become the 7th member of the18K club today.

Rochdale is heading to be the first into the 19K club possibly this weekend. And Bolton might make the 18 K club early next week.

It is noticeable how the range of GM Pop scores is much narrower than it used to be with thousands separating them - not now. Just 1680 between all ten.
 
WALES DATA


Not quite as good as yesterday



5 deaths - was 8 last week

2927 cases - was 2456 last week

10.1% positivity - was 9.2% last week - bit of a rise in cases and positivitity

476 patients - was 536 last week

54 ventilated - was 57 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

* REMEMBER YESTERDAY THEY POSTED NO DATA FOR MIDLANDS AND I SAID THEN IT WOULD BE ABOUT 20 OR SO UNDER. TODAY MIDLANDS HAS 45 SO SEEMS TO HAVE THE DOUBLE DAY DATA INCLUDED. AS SUCH BEAR IN MIND THAT YESTERDAYS WAS PROBABLY ABOUT 104 (NOT 82) - STILL WELL DOWN FROM THE TWO WEEKS BEFORE - AND SO TODAY IS ABOUT 22 UP ON WHAT IT WOULD HAVE BEEN.

THE GOOD NEWS IS IT IS STILL LESS THAN LAST WEEK EVEN WITH THE ADD ON AND WITHOUT IT WOULD BE DOWN ON TWO WEEKS AGO AS WELL.

THE COMBINED TOTAL FOR THESE TWO DAYS OVER THE THREE WEEKS IS 229 TWO WEEKS AGO V 233 LAST WEEK V 185 THIS WEEK



TODAY:-

103 with just 9 North West (but for the double day inclusion from Midlands today that likely would be 81 or so)

WAS 113 with 17 North West last week & 90 with 16 North West the week before.




By Region:-

East 11, London 12, Midlands 45 (2 days), NE & Yorkshire 12, North West 9, South East 10, South West 4


Most by Trust:- 6 in Kettering


North West Trusts:-

2 in Stockport AND 1 each in Liverpool, Morecambe. Pennine (Oldham & Rochdale), Salford, St Helens, Wirral & Wigan


By Age:-

20 - 39 (2) 40 - 59 (15), 60 - 79 (47), 80 PLUS (39)
 
SCOTLAND DATA

Numbers up here too sadly

19 deaths - was 21 last week

3090 cases - was 2888 last week

9.1% positivity - was 9.3% % last week

734 patients - UP 22 on yesterday - was 785 last week (Though the Scotland data site says 73 patients - which would be a miracle - just a misprint it is really 734)

60 ventilated icu - DOWN 1 on yesterday - was 64 last week

Like in England hints of patients rising again after recent falls
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

No explaining needed - cases and deaths clearly up but hospital data better


9 deaths - was 7 last week

2004 cases - was 1690 last week - first time over 2000 here in weeks

11,815 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 11,514 YESTERDAY AND 11,302 LAST WEEK - FLAT BUT NOW RISING

33 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 33 YESTERDAY & 33 LAST WEEK - THIS IS FLAT TOO376

395 Patients - was 386 yesterday & 419 last week

24 Ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 22 last week

376 patients - was 395 yesterday & 410 last week

22 ventilated - was 24 yesterday & 21 last week - hospital data going the right way at the moment

WEEKLY CASES BY AGE GROUP:

0 - 19 (4747)

20 - 39 (2931)

40 - 59 (3136)

60 - 79 (867)

80 PLUS (131)


BOTH THE OLDER AGE GROUPS FALL AGAIN WHILST CASES UP BY 301 DAY TO DAY - HENCE WHY CASES UP BUT HOSPITAL DATA NOT
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY

MORE RISES TODAY BUT ANOTHER GOOD DAY FOR NORTH WEST IN BEST PLACE HERE IN WEEKS

Predicted cases

UP from 79,838 TO 80,225 - SMALLEST rise since it started going up last week.

UP just 387 after rises of 3110, 1130, 2170, 1879 and 1891 in last few days.

That is a rise from 68,265 (UP 11,960 in the week - it was a rise of 13,238 yesterday AND 11,669 & 10,787 in the days before).

FIRST HINT OF A FALLING OR AT LEAST FLATTENING PATH HERE



AND

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE rising too.

UP on 1,033,877 FROM 1,024,017 FROM 1,014,131 - a RISE of 9860, after rises of 9886 & 9492 the days before.

ANOTHER HINT OF A FLATTENING OF THE RISE HERE TOO


Week to week the RISE of 49,704 FROM 984,173 - it was a rise of 23,623 yesterday

This will take a few more days given its week to week nature to change course as it is a week to week comparison not day to day.



NW FELL AGAIN TODAY - ONLY WEST MDLANDS AND SCOTLAND WERE NOT UP OTHERWISE

NORTH WEST DROPS INTO 11TH OUT OF 11 NOW - BELOW LONDON FOR FIRST TIME IN WEEKS

ONLY SCOTLAND NOW LEFT ALL ALONE IN THE MIDDLE ZONE


NORTH WEST DOWN FROM 913 / 1224 TO 886 / 1196


The 11 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

1: Northern Ireland UP very slightly FROM 961 / 2390 TO 961 / 2392

2: Wales UP from 1249 / 1745 TO 1271 / 1777

3: East Midlands UP FROM 1137 / 1526 TO 1156 / 1549

4: East UP FROM 1156 / 1449 TO 1169 / 1453

5: South East UP FROM 1183 / 1386 TO 1192 / 1397

6: Yorkshire - also UP BIG again FROM 1037 / 1411 TO 1090 / 1475

7: West Midlands FALLS FROM 1095 / 1471 TO 1077 / 1451

8: South West another on the UP track FROM 1062 / 1322 TO 1073 / 1337

9: North East is obnly UP a tad today FROM 836 / 1360 TO 836 / 1370

10: London UP after maby recent rises and over NW today FROM 943 / 1181 TO 967 / 1209

Meaning the lowest of all England regions is now

11: North West DOWN FROM 913 / 1224 TO 886 / 1196


And STILL the best in UK now all alone in the middle watch zone



12: Scotland (lowest in UK) and DOWN FROM 785 / 1121 TO 756 / 1077
 
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