COVID Data Thread

Healdplace said:
270 all settings deaths - was 229 last week

England only 221 - was 193



99,652 cases - first sub 100K in weeks

was 109,133 yesterday & 178,250 last Friday



87,857 in England

was 97,770 yesterday & 149,405 last Friday



Numbers today all lowest since 21 December
Click to expand...
Cases falling exponentially now!

As Omicron causes around 20% of severe illness as Delta then already we are in a better place than when it took off and cases were around 40-50k daily but Delta.
 
We must be in too good a shape with SAGE already apparently modelling a fifth wave of Omicron in the Summer.

I expect this thread will be over and in the bin long before then - the sooner the better as I do feel posting all this daily is now starting to look a bit redundant.

So IF there is another meaningful wave we will no longer be talking about it or tracking it hopefully.

Nobody knows for sure but this has a feel of the end game playing out.

The big question now is can City win the Champions League before Covid vanishes into the back of our lives? The next few months will tell!

Just as long as it is not still here when Isco signs for the New MCFC Geriatrics Super League team.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
Cases falling exponentially now!

As Omicron causes around 20% of severe illness as Delta then already we are in a better place than when it took off and cases were around 40-50k daily but Delta.
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Not what the hospital doctor just said on radio 4. Because there's been no lockdown this time, cases "aren't falling off a cliff" like in previous waves. That might just be his hospital, but the implication is that not locking down means the curve flattens and takes longer to go down (so infections continue to put stress on the health service for longer).

Wales is reducing its restrictions because cases are falling. Is that to be read as meaning they were too harsh, or the restrictions worked?

Of course, we probably wouldn't even be discussing this if it were not for the unvaccinated keeping it going.
 
Vic, interesting question on comparison.

He must have been talking hospital data as that will lag cases by a few days and more serious outcomes such as death will lag by two or three weeks just by how long these things take to play out.

Though patients are already showing falls across the UK in recent days a few days behind the case numbers first doing so. Exactly as we would expect. And the deaths - whilst rising over the past 2/3 weeks due to the sheer weight of numbers in hospital will now fall because these are going down. But maybe not for another week. It is cause and effect with a lag between the measures.

But cases are undeniably falling. Everywhere. And have been for at least a week.

Cases appear to have fallen pretty much in the same way everywhere,too. Though not at the same time in every region of every country. Because Omicron has not arrived and dominated everywehere at exactly the same time.

But it is so rapid spreading that the gaps have been days or a week not weeks or months in the way past waves migrated around the UK across weeks and months.

The Zoe App data I post here tracks this best and we saw in England London and the South East go first, burn bright for around 10 days, then fall sharply, but then flatten off to a shallower fall.North West - second in - is doing the exact same thing in the past few days as the GM numbers illustrate in here. And North East and Yorkshire and Midlands are in the process of doing this a few days behind. Meaning they will probably go into that last phase next week or the week after at latest.

Numbers have fallen fast in England because the largest population regions - London and the North West - got colonised by Omicron first - so fell first - and the smaller regions are adding cases but at the same time as the larger ones are losing them.

I supect we will see a levelling off soon not far below where we are now. As that seems to be the way this works. We might then not really be near zero (we will never be AT zero with Covid) until the early Spring. But we will be low enough that hospital numbers are within range to cope over coming months.

The fear was the srge would all come everywhere at once. t largely has but the spacing out of regions even by a week or two and the very rapid play out of the topmost peaks is perobably the thing that has helped the NHS most.

So which was the right choice - letting the natural course of the wave flow through with no restrictions? Or try to slow down the avalanche by a tiny bt by putting barriers in the way it will smash through anyway? This is basically what restrictions/no restrictions has achieved and I do not know if either was best. Only it looks a mininal difference of it was a dfference.
 
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The above is just my reading of things. But I am not an expert. Just used to interpreting the data. Hopefully someone with better professional skills like Roubaix will add his thoughts which might differ.
 
Here is how the cases changed.

Taking yesterday as the latest here are the past 5 weeks cases in each nation

NATION - 17 DEC / 24 DEC / 31 DEC / 07 JAN / 14 JAN


England 83,693 / 105,069 / 160,276 / 149,405 / 87,857

N Ireland 1887 / 3286 / 7215 / 6444 / 2954

Scotland 4336 / 7076 / 11, 962 / 14, 486 / 5977

Wales 3129 / 6755 / 10,393 / 7915 / 2864


Just snapshots but there is very little here to suggest there were major differences linked to restrictions across these nations.

Looks to me like Omicron burned fast and furious and fizzled out over much the same time period everywhere.

Though cases ARE still high by pre Omicrn standards and as of yet we cannot be sure how long the will take to fall to much lower numbers. Or back to Delta like Winter levels which we are still not quite at just yet.
 
Healdplace said:
270 all settings deaths - was 229 last week

England only 221 - was 193



99,652 cases - first sub 100K in weeks

was 109,133 yesterday & 178,250 last Friday



87,857 in England

was 97,770 yesterday & 149,405 last Friday



Numbers today all lowest since 21 December
Click to expand...
January/February will probably be the worst months for dying ‘with Covid’ not ‘of Covid’, given the sheer numbers of positive tests. If over 4 million had it last week, there’s probably been over 20 million ‘cases’ since the start of December and some of those will be in the elderly, who obviously make up most of the deaths from anything, week after week.
That will obviously reflect those in hospital with and because of Covid being almost 50:50 at the current time.
 
287 all settings deaths - was 313 last week

England only 266 v 282 last week

81,713 cases - was 99, 652 yesterday & 146,390 last week (No Wales data on Saturdays recall)

lowest UK number since 15 December

England only

74,756 - was 87,857 yesterday & 130,330 last week

lowest since 19 December
 
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Healdplace said:
The above is just my reading of things. But I am not an expert. Just used to interpreting the data. Hopefully someone with better professional skills like Roubaix will add his thoughts which might differ.
Click to expand...

I'm most definitely not a professional!

But what I'd say is that restrictions made the peak lower. Without "plan B" probably more people without have suffered due to hospital overruns, its been, and still is, pretty bad in that regard.

Regarding what was "right" it's about risk, which isn't necessarily best judged by outcomes. If you decide not to bother with a 2nd 'chute on a skydive, and your first opens ok, does that prove it was right not to bother with the second 'chute?
 
Healdplace said:
287 all settings deaths - was 313 last week

England only 266 v 282 last week

81,713 cases - was 99, 652 yesterday & 146,390 last week (No Wales data on Saturdays recall)

lowest UK number since 15 December

England only

74,756 - was 87,857 yesterday & 130,330 last week

lowest since 19 December
Click to expand...

Pretty much halving week on week. Very good.
 
Did not expect to see the falls in South Africa repeated in the UK as well as they are.

Seems Omicron is very different from Delta in how it operates due to its very high infectivity but making people less sick which leaves more in place to infect others rather than be quickly isolated or in hospital.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Everyone down today again and nearly all below five figures



SOUTH EAST on 10,920 - DOWN from 12,639 V 18,957 last week & 23,108 2 wks ago

LONDON on 10,601 - DOWN from 12,491 V 20,853 last week & 27,608 2 wks ago



NORTH WEST on 9591 - DOWN from 11,786 V 18,346 last week & 27,328 2 wks ago

First sub 10K total since before Christmas in NW and a third of where it was in 14 days


WEST MIDLANDS on 8626 - DOWN from 11,049 V 13,367 last week & 16,221 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 8519 - DOWN from 9676 V 12,003 last week & 14,373 2 wks ago

EAST on 7754 - DOWN from 8815 V 10,404 last week & 16,168 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 6089 - DOWN from 7055 V 12,303 last week & 12,994 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 6029 - DOWN from 6645 V 9259 last week & 12,367 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 4874 - DOWN from 5907 V 7207 last week & 10,935 2 wks ago
 
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HERE ARE THE NUMBERS FOR SCOTLAND & NORTHERN IRELAND TODAY. WALES NEVER REPORT ON SATURDAYS


NORTHERN IRELAND DATA
0 deaths - was 5 last week

2668 cases - was 3458 last week

ALL WE GET HERE AT WEEKEND



SCOTLAND DATA

21 deaths - was 26 last week

4469 cases - was 12,602 last week - There were 7833 positives today but they discount the ones now which are not yet confirmed by PCR and just come from an LFD but give both numbers as of the last couple of days. But 4469 is the one recorded by Gov UK and in the total.

1540 patients - down from 1544 yesterday & 1362 last week

46 ventilated icu - down 50 yesterday & 48 last week
 
GREATER MANCHESTER

YESTERDAY & TODAY

YESTERDAY:- 4732 - down by 14 from 4746 V North West 11,786 - down by from 12,770

40.1% yesterday V 37.1% day before

DOWN ON WEEK FROM 8922 BY 4190 V LAST WEEK



TODAY :- 3555 - down by 1177 V North West 9591 - down by 2195

Back to 37.1% of the NW total.

DOWN ON WEEK FROM 7944 BY 4389 V LAST WEEK
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY


The numbers actually look fairly normal today for first time in weeks. THey are mostly closer together than for quite some time and EVERYONE is down day to day and week to week for the second day running with the exeption of Wigan up just 1 on the day! And as was true yesterday some HUGE drops.



MANCHESTER 680 - DOWN 324 on day & DOWN 1042 on week - Pop Score 123 (POP 26,773)

BOLTON 432 - DOWN 41 on day & DOWN 289 on week - Pop Score 150 (POP 25,473) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - But highest Pop Score today and now only 579 ahead of Stockport.

WIGAN 402 - UP 1 on day & DOWN 461 on week Pop Score 121 to enter the 27K club (POP 27,103)

SALFORD 343 - DOWN 150 on day & DOWN 495 on week - Pop Score 131 - still only one in the 28K club (POP 28,252) Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic

STOCKPORT 326 - DOWN 93 on day & DOWN 412 on week. Pop Score 111 to enter the 26K club. Regained 39 back on Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic (POP 26,052)

ROCHDALE 300 - DOWN 115 on day & DOWN 381 on week. Pop Score 135* to enter the 27K club (POP 27,050)

TAMESIDE 295 - DOWN 145 on day & DOWN 357 on week. Pop Score 130 (POP 26,969)

TRAFFORD 288 - DOWN 61 on day & DOWN 285 on week. Pop Score of 121 (POP 26,799)

BURY 246 - DOWN 67 on day & DOWN 153 on week. Pop Score 119 (POP 26,554)

OLDHAM 243 - DOWN 182 on day & DOWN 517 on week. Pop Score 102* POP 26,315)* Lowest Pop Scorein GM today
 
WALES DATA

From Friday - Saturday & Sunday together tomorrow, as usual

6 deaths - was 8 last week

2133 cases - was 8923 last week - The huge falls have reached Wales it seems!

14.9% - was 25% last week

No hospital data here at weekends but

on Friday was 861 patients & 31 ventilated V last Sunday 727 patients & 35 ventilated
 
ZOE APP DATA TODAY

The latest graph, predicted cases and ongoing symptomatic cases are on the main Covid thread.

They are all good news.

Regionally:

All 12 UK regions are going down on Zoe.

North East is still top (on 3564/4342 but also now falling a little from yesterday. They were the only one still rising yesterday.

North West remains second but has fallen below 3000 onto 2947/3351 (from 3062/3469 yesterday)

The North East also has the place in the UK with the highest ever score on Zoe - Sunderland currently on 85,100.

Nowhere in GM has ever quite made it that high in recent weeks.

HERE IS THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY IN THE NORTH WEST

Highest score - only just behind Sunderland - is South Ribble - sandwiched between Preston and Bolton/Wigan - NOT I SUSPECT BY CHANCE THESE TWO BOROUGHS IN GM BEING THE ONES THAT HAVE STRUGGLED WITH HIGH NUMBERS LATELY

South Ribble is on the highest ever North West number of 84,002

Many other parts of the NW are now falling slowly. Though Cheshire East is edging up on 43,261 whilst Cheshire West & Chester is falling on 41,569

Merseyside is going down - Liverpool the highest still on 70,494 - but was over 73,000 3 days ago. And West Lancashire (between Merseyside & Wigan) only slightly down on past few days on 63,159.

The others - though - are down more St Helens 48,906 - Sefton 44,465 - Wirral 39,225 & Warrington 32,666
 
ZOE GREATER MANCHESTER NUMBERS

These are now mostly falling well

From best (lowest) to worst (highest)


1 OLDHAM 27,108 - down 5K on day and first under 30K in a while & now well clear of the rest - over an 18K gap in fact

2 BURY 45,769 - going up by 5K

3 STOCKPORT 46,971 - down by 2K and by 6K in 4 days - its much better numbers in the daily data reflected on Zoe - indeed overtook Trafford today who fell much the same way after rising before Stockport so starting the sharp uptick and swift falls we are seeing widely in the county

4 TRAFFORD 47,249 - fell a few hundred for first time today after recent big rises

5 BOLTON 60,063 - another big gap to the three above and SIX boroughs over 60K is a new record - GM had had none until a week or so ago. However, this is the first fall by a few hundred in three weeks of steady rises

6 WIGAN 60,389 - unfortunately going the opposite way to Bolton - up 7 K after a few days flattening off. It is lirerally surrounded by high scores on all sides so no surprise it has had problems

7 ROCHDALE 61,959 - up 3 K today and 12 K in 4 days.

8 TAMESIDE 62,977 - up 2 K but the rise slowing - up 9K in previous 3 days

9 MANCHESTER 63,087 - up 1K on highest ever in the city. Up 20 K in just over a week but rise here slowing fast too.

10 SALFORD 71,945 - Been the highest score for a while now. Peaked at 74,968 - highest ever recorded in GM - four days ago but since then is now falling.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 2 last week

2518 cases - was 3760 last week


All we get on weekends
 
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