COVID Data Thread

SCOTLAND DATA

BIT DISAPPOINTING HERE AS DEATHS AND CASES WELL UP

33 deaths - was 20 last week

2823 cases - was 2153 last week

7.2% positivity - was 6.3% last week

896 patients - down 39 on yesterday - was 932 last week

63 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 58 last week

Hospital numbers are looking better though.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Sadly not good here - which Zoe seems to have seen coming with its unexpected leap up the table by the Province.

12 deaths - was 9 last week

1481 cases - was 1122 last week

8020 WEEKLY CASES - was 7779 yesterday & 8091 Yesterday

42 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - DOWN 2 ON YESTERDAY - WAS 49 LAST WEEK

This is better news - BUT there is a clear rise now in the older ages and a fall in the lower ages which is being transalted into the increasing death rate. This is certainly a worry as it will be UK wide I suspect.

378 patients - same as yesterday - was 349 last week

31 ventilted - up 1 on yesterday - was 24 last week

DESPITE HIGH DEATH NUMBERS DAY TO DAY NOW THE VENTILATORS ARE SHOOTING UP TO A WORRYING LEVEL.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

107 with 12 North West

Was 89 with 11 NW last week & 88 with 17 NW week before.

So the modest week to week rises seen now daily for past week or more are continuing.

BY Region: 21 East (high here), 9 London, 17 Midlands, 21 NE & Yorkshire, 12 North West, 16 South East & 11 South West

5 in Nottingham was the most in one trust today

NW Trusts:-

3 each in Liverpool & Manchester, 2 in Pennine Acute AND 1 each in Bolton, Chester, Stockport & Wigan.

By age:-

0 - 19 (2), 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (9), 60 - 79 (58) , 80 PLUS (36)

2 under 20 deaths today sadly but again - this is happening now day after day and never used to be true - quite a lot more in the 60 - 79 age as opposed to the 80 plus.

Curious - but I guess most likely because they are more likely to go out into the world than the over 80s and/or the over 80s bore the brunt of all the past waves and maybe there are juat fewer vulnerable of them left.

Or, of course - what I hope is true - they were the first to get the third booster jab - so maybe the reduction here is evidence of that?

October 31 is on 114 deaths after just 4 days.
 
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214 deaths - was 165 last week

152 in England v 124 last week

Everybody up in deaths today

37,269 cases - down 4030 on yesterday & from 39,842 by 2573 on last week

England only:-

30,166 - down on yesterday by 4251 from 34,317 & by 3737 from 33,903 last week.
 
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GOOD DAY FOR NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY

North West cases 3771 - DOWN 803 on yesterday

Greater Manchester DOWN 401 of that 803 (over par at about half) to 1236

Week to week North West cases UP 173 from 3598.

But Greater Manchester DOWN 113 from 1349 - obviously pretty good if you are down by over 100 when the region is up by over 100.

Lowest Wednesday total in GM in over 2 months.

Oldham low scores on 84. Manchester high scores on just 178.

Several boroughs on lowest scores in some time today with good weekly drops.

Stockport and Trafford the best both down week to week by 46.

Stockport lowest score since 23 September.

Bolton, Rochdale, Salford and Wigan though all up week to week.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY

ANOTHER FALL IN PATIENTS TODAY



ADMISSIONS (TUESDAY) (always 48 hour old is admissions - the rest below is all today)

891 v 911 last week (down 20).

Midlands and North West fell week to week:-

London 100 (down 7 from 107), Midlands 168 (up 3 from 165), NE & Yorkshire 167 (down 30 from 167) & North West 130 (down 4 from 134)

SOUTH EAST SADLY THE BIGGEST RISE FROM 94 TO 137. SORRY TO REPORT.




PATIENTS TODAY 7201 - DOWN 90 from 7291 yesterday. Fallen 309 in last 48 hours.

Last Week numbers were UP by 68 to 7019.

A week to week rise of 182 today. It was up week to week 340 yesterday & 688 day before.

So the week to week slowing of the rise continues.

Last Thursday to Thursday patients were up by 653 V 182 today.


REGIONALLY London down 30 to 1020, Midlands UP 17 to 1352, NE & Yorks down 54 to 1437 & NW down 20 to 1119. So NW 99 above London as of today.


Week to week London (down 43), NE & Yorkshire (down 2), Midland (up 42), East (up 71), South East (up 72) , South West (up 20) and North West (up 22) over the last 7 days.

AGAIN SADLY SOUTH EAST HAS THE WORST OF THIS



VENTILATORS TODAY 867 - UP 13. Last week it was down 5 to 794.

So up week to week by 73, The week to week rise last week was 44.

REGIONALLY London has 187 (up 1 on day), Midlands 172 (up 2 on day), NE & Yorkshire 142 (up 5 on day) & North West 119 (down 2 on day)

In the large regions only North West falls today.



SAD TO REPORT IT WAS THE SOUTH EAST AGAIN THAT HAD THE WORST NUMBERS TODAY - UP 7 onto 85 - UP FROM 65 last week - BIGGEST RISE IN ANY REGION
 
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UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

PATIENTS:-

ENGLAND 7201, N IRELAND 378, SCOTLAND 896, WALES 707 UK TOTAL 9182 (DOWN 121)


VENTILATORS:-

ENGLAND 867, N IRELAND 31, SCOTLAND 63, WALES 72 UK TOTAL 1033 (UP 7)


Sadly as you can see ventilators now over 1000.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE (LOWEST IS BEST) // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 273 // 84 c v 95c // POP SCORE 35 - UP TO 17, 825 - Highest in GM overall

MANCHESTER 297 // 178 c v 221c // POP SCORE 32 - UP TO 17, 455 - Lowest score today

BOLTON 308 // 116 c v 106 c // POP SCORE 40 - UP TO 16, 739

SALFORD 322 // 107 c v 83 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 17, 561

WIGAN 397 // 149 c v 135 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 17, 177

TAMESIDE 412 // 116 c v 137 c // POP SCORE 51 - UP TO 17, 061

ROCHDALE 417 // 139 c v 117 c // POP SCORE 62 - UP TO 17, 561 - Highest score today

BURY 430 // 105 c v 121 c // POP SCORE 55 - UP TO 16, 903

STOCKPORT 431 // 138 c v 184 c // POP SCORE 47 - UP TO 16, 067 - Lowest in GM overall

TRAFFORD 443 // 104 c v 150 c // POP SCORE 44 - UP TO 16, 415
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores yesterday in your two Kent areas so you track them daily and compare them with GM above.

MEDWAY 120 cases yesterday - Total cases 40,475 - Pop Score 14,500 - Weekly Pop Score 326

DARTFORD 59 cases yesterday - Total cases 17,660 - Pop Score 15,484 - Weekly Pop Score 501

If you recall when I tracked these in January for you they were WAY above these points. Weekly Pop was over 1000 and far higher than even Trafford got at its worst point a few weeks ago,

Right now - though the South East is struggling a little as a region these numbers are not terrible.

Dartford is certainly the worst - ahead now of everywhere in GM right now on 501 week to week

But Medway is in the better half range of the GM table so higher than in good times but not what anyone right now would regard as a real problem.

And as you also see BOTH have overall Pop Scores across the pandemic below Stockport (16,067) - who are the lowest by 350 or so in GM.
 
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WALES DATA

13 deaths - was 7 last week - The legacy of high cases is translating into deaths after the lag expected sadly

1986 cases - was 2561 last week - First time under 2000 in past 4 weeks.

8.9% psitivity - was 10.8% last week - Good drop here

707 patients - up 10 on yesterday - was 686 last week

72 Ventilated - down 1 on yesterday - was 68 last week


WALES TESTING POSITIVE TODAY BY AGE RANGE WITH M / F SPLIT

00 - 09 M 3.9% F 3.6% TOTAL 7.5%

10 - 19 M 9.1% F 9.7% TOTAL 18.8%

20 - 29 M 7.0% F 8.1% TOTAL 15.1%

30 - 39 M 6.4% F 8.3% TOTAL 14.7%

40 - 49 M 6.2% F 7.8% TOTAL 14.0%

50 - 59 M 6.0% F 7.1% TOTAL 13.1%

60 - 69 M 3.8% F 3.9% TOTAL 7.7%

70 - 79 M 2.4% F 2.3% TOTAL 4.7%

80 - 89 M 1.3% F 1.7% TOTAL 3.0%

90 + M 0.5% F 0.9% TOTAL 1.4%


As you can see deaths are rising now because the over 60s numbers are rising, Now 16.8% when they were under 10% a month or two ago,

The Under 20s at the same time have dropped markedly from around 35 - 40% to just over 25%

Though the teenage group is still the biggest group testing positive the difference is now much less marked across the ages - why cases are translating into deaths now more than they were.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Sadly the same rising trend in deaths - mostly of the over 60s - is continuing - as it will unless the past few days falls in hospital numbers continue as deaths will lag these numbers.


162 deaths with 25 North West

Last week was 133 with 21 North West & week before 130 with 10 North West


Bit of a jump this week as we have seen over the last few days.

THIS IS THE HIGHEST FRIDAY TOTAL SINCE 5 MARCH WHEN THERE WERE 174 WITH 40 NORTH WEST
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL 162 DEATHS IN DETAIL


By Region:-

East 19, London 28, Midlands 16, NE & Yorkshire 32, North West 25, South East 30, South West 12

Note how high South East is after the huge case numbers of recent weeks

MOST BY TRUST - 10 in Epsom.


North West Trusts:-

8 in East Lancashire, 6 in Blackpool, 3 each in Manchester & Wigan, 2 in Pennine Acute & 1 each in Bolton, East Cheshire & Morecambe


By Age:

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (12), 60 - 79 (67), 80 PLUS (80)



The numbers are still piling up - today there were backdated ones across many days in the past month and totals over 100 on a day are now becoming the norm not a rarity.

31 October - the latest 5 day total - is on 122 - same as 27 October was (though is now on 132 with add ons since)

On 24 October the week before that 122 was just 87.

The first two days of November not yet at 5 days are already in the high 90s and up on their equivalent last week.

So looks like the 648 weekly total of the latest 7 day numbers - the highest since early March - is on its way to being topped again this week with a very good chance of it being over 700 and so averaging 100 + a day for the first time since the tail end of last Winter's wave.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

PROMISING HOSPITAL NUMBERS HERE

25 deaths - was 24 last week

2389 cases - was 2732 last week

8.3% positivity - was 7.7% last week

841 patients - down 55 on yesterday - biggest fall in a while - was 926 last week

59 ventilated icu - down 4 on yesterday - was 60 last week - first fall here in week in a bit too
 
193 all settings deaths - up from 186 last Friday

England only 151 v 148 last week


THESE DEATH RISES ARE LESS THAN FEARED - MUST HAVE BEEN SOME DOUBLE COUNTING



34, 029 cases - down 3240 on yesterday & 9438 on last Friday

England only 28, 490 - down 1676 on yesterday & 8363 on last Friday


LOWEST ENGLAND TOTAL SINCE 4 OCTOBER


THESE FALLS ARE STARTING TO LOOK FOR REAL AND SUSTAINED

There were actually about 42 K MORE pillar 1 and 2 tests this week v last Friday so positivity will be down even further.

But the falls are mostly in the younger ages and the older ones are edging up. As noted with the Wales data earlier.

The risk is we replace less deadly age group cases with more deadly ones - which even if these are fewer in number bump up deaths this winter because of the higher risk factor.
 
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NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY

North West 3601 - DOWN 170 on yesterday

Greater Manchester DOWN just 25 of those to 1211

North West Week to week is DOWN a whopping 1540 from 5141

Greater Manchester DOWN 597 of that total.

This is the biggest weekly drop in some time in GM but about the expected split of that huge fall based on the % split GM has been getting around 35%

Oldham and Rochdale sub 100. Manchester top scores on 182.

Huge week to week drops for Manchester (down 94), Trafford (down 96) and Stockport (down 99)

Every single GM borough is down week on week today - most by pretty big numbers.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS

Another big fall today. Down 129 on the day and now actually DOWN on last Friday. First time in a month week to week has dropped after rising week to week for a month until today.

Has fallen now for four straight days by a total of 463 from 7535 to 7072 across the week from Monday to today.

Ventilalors also flattened off and at 860 are just up by 1 on Monday.

Would have been better but East and South East both up by 5 today into the 90s for first time in some while balanced out falls in the four larger regions - down 11 between them.

North West down 33 patients to 1086 - exactly the same as last Friday And by 3 ventiltors to 116 (which is UP from 105 last Friday but has fallen in past three days from 123)
 
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Thanks for all the info @Healdplace.
Non death numbers looking good for the last two weeks. Deaths lag by 3 weeks so hopefully they will start to fall in a week and a half's time.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Thanks for all the info @Healdplace.
Non death numbers looking good for the last two weeks. Deaths lag by 3 weeks so hopefully they will start to fall in a week and a half's time.
Click to expand...
Yes, the patient falls should translate into deaths in a week or two as noted above BUT the caveat is there is some evidence that the fall is mostly because under 20 numbers are dropping but over 60s numbers are edging up.

This is in Wales and N Ireland where the patient numbers are not dropping like in England and Scotland but they give the age split data of the cases each day. IF the same thing is happening in England (and there is some hint of that in the Gov UK heat maps) there could be a balance between lower cases and higher vulnerability of the smaller numbers that might take things the other way.

I am not going to get too excited until we see where this pans out. Though the booster jabs on the more vulnerable will hopefully swing it back the other way.

The Zoe numbers are hopeful though and do seem to be tracking Greater Manchester pretty well at the moment.
 
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