COVID Data Thread

Well Wisher said:
What's the fatality rate, and what's their average age? And how do today's answers compare to before the jabs started?
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A lot less than it was pre vaccine. And you can look at the England hospital deaths by age group in my post here this afternoon. That is pretty typical of the day to day numbers.

As for how many cases create those deaths in each age range look at the numbers I posted this afternoon for each age range in the Welsh case data and the number of cases testing positive today.

So I would imagine you can use those numbers to work out the answers you seek in an approximation.
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 87 cases today (down from 120 yesterday) - Total cases 40,562 - Pop Score 14,531 (Up 31 today) - Weekly Pop Score 325 (down 1)

DARTFORD 59 cases today (same as yesterday) - Total cases 17,719 - Pop Score 15,536 (Up 52 today) - Weekly Pop Score 487 (down 14)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY

ANOTHER FALL IN PATIENTS TODAY



ADMISSIONS (WEDNESDAY) (always 48 hour old is admissions - the rest below is all today)

807 v 955 last week (down 148). Biggest weekly drop in some time. Hence why patients are falling.

Midlands rose slightly week to week but the others including North West fell week to week. But NE & Yorkshire REALLY fell:-

London 82 (down 16 from 98), Midlands 177 (up 4 from 177), NE & Yorkshire 135 (down 91 from 226) & North West 121 (down 13 from 134)

South East down to 117 from 124 week to week



PATIENTS TODAY 7072 - DOWN 129 from 7201 yesterday. Fallen 438 in last 72 hours.

Last Week the numbers were UP by 94 to 7113.

A week to week FALL of 41 today. It was up week to week by 182 yesterday & 340 day before.

So the week to week slowing of the rise turned into a fall for the first time in a month.

Last Friday to Friday patients were up by 708.

Today was a wk to wk FALL of 41.


REGIONALLY London UP 19 to 1039, Midlands DOWN 24 to 1328, NE & Yorks DOWN 25 to 1412 & NW DOWN 33 to 1086. So NW 47 above London as of today. Half the gap of yesterday.


Week to week London (down 8), NE & Yorkshire (down 72), Midlands (down 8), East (up 24), South East (up 47) , South West (down 24) and North West (LEVEL) over the last 7 days.




VENTILATORS TODAY 860 - DOWN 7. Last week it was UP 15 to 809.

So up week to week by 51, The week to week rise last week was 63.

REGIONALLY London has 182 (down 5 on day), Midlands 173 (up 1 on day), NE & Yorkshire 138 (down 4 on day) & North West 116 (down 3 on day)



SAD TO REPORT SOUTH EAST AGAIN HAD JOINT WORST NUMBERS TODAY - UP 5 onto 90 - UP FROM 70 last week - BIGGEST WEEKLY RISE IN ANY REGION
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

PATIENTS:-

ENGLAND 7072, N IRELAND 380, SCOTLAND 841, WALES 686 UK TOTAL 8979 (DOWN 203)

Only N Ireland did not fall today


VENTILATORS:-

ENGLAND 860, N IRELAND 32, SCOTLAND 59, WALES 73 UK TOTAL 1024 ( DOWN 9)


England and Scotland fall - Wales and N Ireland up 1 each


Both numbers fall today and under 9000 now in UK hospitals
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 251 (down 22) // 63 c v 113 c // POP SCORE 26* - UP TO 17,851 - * Highest in GM overall BUT lowest Pop Score today and in GM in some time

MANCHESTER 281 (down 16) // 182 c v 276 c // POP SCORE 33 - UP TO 17,488

BOLTON 307 (down 1) // 117 c v 122 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 16,780

SALFORD 308 (down 14) // 116 c v 153 c // POP SCORE 44 - UP TO 17,604

WIGAN 372 (down 25) // 137 c v 220 c // POP SCORE 41 - UP TO 17,218

ROCHDALE 393 (down 24) // 83 c v 137 c // POP SCORE 37 - UP TO 17,598

STOCKPORT 394 (down 37) // 151 c v 250 c // POP SCORE 48 - UP TO 16,115 - Lowest in GM overall

TAMESIDE 395 (down 17) // 150 c v 190 c // POP SCORE 66 * - UP TO 17,127 - * Highest rise today

TRAFFORD 404 (down 39) // 108 c v 204 c // POP SCORE 46 - UP TO 16,461

BURY 409 (down 21) // 104 c v 143 c // POP SCORE 54 - UP TO 16,957



Every single borough fell some by lots (Trafford and Stockport the most - Stockport falling into the 300s for first time since 21 September).

Only 158 top to bottom not over 500 as was two or three weeks ago.

After a huge gap between Stockport and Trafford and the rest 2 weeks back the bottom 5 boroughs are now separated by just 16!
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 598, Bury 780, Salford 809, Rochdale 880, Bolton 884, Tameside 897, Trafford 958, Stockport 1170, Wigan 1230, Manchester 1559
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 4609 - Down 542 V 6424

NORTH WEST 3601 - Down 170 V 5141

SOUTH WEST 3549 - Up 52 V 4203

YORKSHIRE 3121 - Down 159 V 4025

EAST 3020 - Down 428 V 4074

LONDON 2993 - Down 122 V 3615

WEST MIDLANDS 2839 - Down 162 V 3699

EAST MIDLANDS 2485 - Down 7 V 3085

NORTH EAST 1672 - Up 141 V 1619
 
Healdplace said:
Yes, the patient falls should translate into deaths in a week or two as noted above BUT the caveat is there is some evidence that the fall is mostly because under 20 numbers are dropping but over 60s numbers are edging up.

This is in Wales and N Ireland where the patient numbers are not dropping like in England and Scotland but they give the age split data of the cases each day. IF the same thing is happening in England (and there is some hint of that in the Gov UK heat maps) there could be a balance between lower cases and higher vulnerability of the smaller numbers that might take things the other way.

I am not going to get too excited until we see where this pans out. Though the booster jabs on the more vulnerable will hopefully swing it back the other way.

The Zoe numbers are hopeful though and do seem to be tracking Greater Manchester pretty well at the moment.
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Caveat noted so it's probable that numbers are likely to fall slowly.
 
New Zealand now up to around 200 cases per day. The Delta variant is likely to keep spreading as cases have doubled about every couple of weeks in recent times.

The upside is that the growth in cases is probably helping vaccination take up that (boosters aside) matches that of the U.K.
 
NO WALES DATA TODAY AS USUAL (FRIDAYS WILL BE POSTED TOMORROW, SAT & SUN AS ONE ON MONDAY)

HERE ARE THE OTHER TWO NATIONS:-



SCOTLAND

24 deaths - was 20 last week

3249 cases - was 3867 last week

8.7% positivity - was 9.6% last week

823 patients - down 18 on yesterday - was 926 last week - big week to week fall here as in England

55 ventilated - down 4 on yesterday - was 65 last week

SCOTLAND NUMBERS LIKE ENGLAND HEADING MUCH THE SAME WAY - DEATHS UP A LITTLE (THE DELAYED LEGACY OF RECENT HIGH CASES) - CASES EDGING DOWN AND PATIENTS AND VENTILATORS STARTED TO DROP OVER PAST WEEK AFTER STEADY RISES FOR A MONTH AT EXACTLY THE SAME TIME AS IN ENGLAND


NORTHERN IRELAND

6 deaths - was 8 last week

1194 cases - was 1207 last week

ALL WE GET HERE ON WEEKENDS BUT N IRELAND ARE PRETTY FLAT AND NOT FALLING AS SUCH AT THE MOMENT AND HOSPITAL NUMBERS WERE STILL EDGING UP LAST WEEK THOUGH CARE HOME OUTBREAKS HAVE FALLEN TO LOW LEVELS - NI WERE THE LAST INTO THE CASE RISES AND MIGHT BE THE LAST OUT
 
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ZOE TODAY

Predicted cases drop a lot again to 81,309 FROM 83,690 yesterday - was 92,444 last Saturday

Ongoing infections drop again to 1,203,699 FROM 1, 210,046 yesterday & 1,216,132 day before

Also now down week to week from 1,216.008

The Zoe graph of the wave now clearly shows a falling outbreak.

But as you see for July on that graph - it WAS falling then for a week or two then flatened off and went up and away and we then reached where we are after weeks of that rising.

So not at all obvious where we go from here into the Winter.

Have we had the Winter peak of last year a couple of months early and the vaccines in 2021 v none in 2020 limited its deadly impact - or is this the autumn one we had last year that was followed in December/January by one almost twice as bad.

The Zoe graph suggests the former - but we will have to hope that is not just optimistic guesswork.

Moreover will cases fall as steeply as they did last January this November?

1636212093911.png
 
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155 all settings deaths - 125 in England

That is DOWN from 166 and 138 in England last Saturday

So down in both instances


30,693 cases (No Wales data on Saturday but still very low and V last week is also v no Wales then so not a factor)


Down 3336 on yesterday and by 10,585 from 41,278 last week

England only 26,250 - down 2240 on yeserday & down 9954 from 36, 204 last Saturday.



THE FALLS CONTINUE
 
Good day for most in GM but less so for Manchester, Oldham and Stockport.

Stockport up from 152 to 173 and with the highest Pop rise today. 62 (v Trafford's 59)

Oldham even worse up from 81 to 117

Manchester were up most from 208 to 286.

All the rest fell week to week.

Though Gov UK appears to have messed up the Salford data. Its cases were similar to the last few days and so should have risen by around a Pop Score of 42 - 46 as they all did - but Gov UK has them FALLING by 3 - which is literally impossible when adding 113 cases.

Probably be corrected tomorrow.
 
Given the big drop in cases today the GM numbers are a little disappointing.

Cases up 223 to 1434 - with almost every borough up day to day.

Though that 1434 is 101 DOWN week to week from 1535 last Saturday.

North West was DOWN by 118 today to 3482 - so GM rising by double that fall today is not good news obviously.

Week to week North West was down by 1042 from 4524 - so the NW fall of just 118 is equally poor as a split of that. Should be around 350/400

So not a good day in GM today in comparison with other parts of the region that are falling more right now and bumping up the GM percentage.

But most in GM are going down and it was just 2 or 3 today that created the disparty. Manchester in particular as its numbers going up mean a big number rising gven its size. Indeed it went up 104 day to day on is own.
 
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ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week


SOUTH EAST 4213 - Down 396 V 6822

NORTH WEST 3482 - Down 119 V 4524

SOUTH WEST 2981 - Down 568 V 4745

EAST 2958 - Down 62 V 4267

LONDON 2950 - Down 43 V 3555

WEST MIDLANDS 2785 - Down 54 V 3370

YORKSHIRE 2486 - Down 635 V 3872

EAST MIDLANDS 2363 - Down 122 V 3082

NORTH EAST 1323 - Down 349 V 1819
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 102 cases today (UP from 87 yesterday) - Total cases 40,664 - Pop Score 14,568 (Up 37 today) - Weekly Pop Score 308 (down 17)

DARTFORD 73 cases today (UP from 59 yesterday) - Total cases 17,792 - Pop Score 15,600 (Up 64 today) - Weekly Pop Score 461 (down 26)
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 267 (UP 16) // 117 c v 81 c // POP SCORE 50 - UP TO 17,901 - Highest in GM overall

BOLTON 286 (DOWN 21) // 87 c v 147 c // POP SCORE 30 - UP TO 16,810

MANCHESTER 295 (UP 14) // 286 c v 208 c // POP SCORE 52 - UP TO 17,540

SALFORD 300 (DOWN 8) // 113 c v 134 c // POP SCORE 43 - UP TO 17,647

WIGAN 366 (DOWN 6) // 167 c v 188 c // POP SCORE 51 - UP TO 17,269

ROCHDALE 377 (DOWN 16) // 138 c v 174 c // POP SCORE 62* - UP TO 17,660 - *Joint highest today

BURY 379 (DOWN 30) // 96 c v 153 c // POP SCORE 51 - UP TO 17,008

TAMESIDE 385 (DOWN 10) // 116 c v 137 c // POP SCORE 51 - UP TO 17,178

TRAFFORD 395 (DOWN 9) // 141 c v 161 c // POP SCORE 59 - UP TO 16,520

STOCKPORT 405 (UP 11) // 173 c v 152 c // POP SCORE 62* - UP TO 16,177 - *Joint highest today - but lowest in GM overall


All but three boroughs fell(Just Oldham, Mancester and Stockport were up - Stockport up by the least but the only one for whom the rise had major consequences).

Oldham stayed top and Manchester not far behind sub 300. But Stockport after just a day back under 400 goes back over AND for the first time in the entire pandemic - and after avoiding it for weeks - was finally promoted to the worst POP score in GM today ahead of Trafford who finally fell below 400 after falling lower and staying.

So no qestion who had the worst day today - if not in the actual numbers but certainly in their impact.

Even so minimal impact on its lead v Trafford for lowest Pop Score Still 343.

Bury also became the 7th borough into the 17K club today - leaving just Stockport, Trafford and Bolton in the 16 K club. Though on present trajectory Bolton will be first to leave for the 17K one around this time next week.

By which point Oldham will be the first in GM into the 18K club likely on Monday.

On this score today Rochdale - who had the joint highest Pop rise with Stockport - overtook Salford into second place behind Oldham for the highest Pop score across the pandemic. Though still 241 behind neighbour Oldham.

Only 138 now top to bottom in weekly POP scores - which is down 20 on yesterday and way below where it was a month or so ago. Pushing 600.
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 634, Bury 723, Salford 788, Bolton 824, Rochdale 844, Tameside 876, Trafford 938, Stockport 1191, Wigan 1209, Manchester 1637
 
WALES DATA

This is from Friday only as usual (Sat & Sun combined tomorrow as every week here)

9 deaths - was 9 last week

2583 cases - was 3016 last week

686 patients - was 686 last week

73 ventilated - was 73 last week

HOSPITAL DATA NOW TOTALLY FLAT WEEK TO WEEK IN WALES TOO AFTER RISING STEADILY - IN FACT ALL VERY FLAT HERE
 
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