COVID Data Thread

[Healdplace]

UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS - BOTH DOWN TODAY



ENGLAND 6358 (-76)

SCOTLAND 544 (+3)

WALES 383 (-17)

N IRELAND 315 (-11)



TOTAL 7600 (down 101)


VENTILATED


ENGLAND 786 (-9)

SCOTLAND 38 (same)

WALES 36 (-1)

N IRELAND 27 (same)


TOTAL 887 (down 10)

 

[Healdplace]

In hospitals - despite 32,126 new cases in London over the past 48 hours - the London patient numbers in hospital are up by just 12 in that time.

It will change as there is a lag included but it is still noteworthy as the many thousands yesterday who caught Covid there were clearly pretty much all not yet ill enough to be hospitalised right away.

 

[Healdplace]

The week to week rise in hospital patients in England is 303 (6053 to 6358).

Boris quoted a 10% increase in patients in the press briefing but the above is just 5%. He referred to London only. See if the media notice or extrapolate.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Kin Ada.
Just had a butchers at those figures and 5k omicron cases today would mean 73k delta today?

It's not comparable:

1. Only a proportion of positive swabs undergo genetic sequencing

2. The sequencing data takes longer, so the reported omicron figure is actually from a few days earlier (not sure exactly the lag)

Probably 25-50% of those 78k are omicron.

 

[Citizen Mike]

Greater Manchester also a record high almost everywhere.

3497 cases today - UP by 1106 on yesterday - from the rise of 2278 in the NW

That is a bit over expectation in the split. But not by much.

Week to week GM is up by 1480 from 2017 - from the NW rise of 2704.

That is a little more over expectation in the split

So Greater Manchester is clearly a significant factor in the huge case rises and Omicron outbreaks.



Here are the cases - most of these are new records for pretty much everywhere and everything!

Sadly likely not to stay that way perhaps for longer than 24 hours.



MANCHESTER 739 - up 157 on yesterday & 367 on last week POP SCORE 133 (now 19,536)

STOCKPORT 435 - up 107 on yesterday & 185 on last week POP SCORE 148 (now 18,483)

TRAFFORD 427 - up 92 on yesterday & 132 on last week POP SCORE 180 (now 19,280)

SALFORD 388 - up 136 on yesterday & 170 on last week POP SCORE 148 (now 19,995)

BURY 299 - up 153 on yesterday & 191 on last week POP SCORE 157 (now 19,458)

WIGAN 297 - up 103 on yesterday & 67 on last week POP SCORE 90 (now 19,542)

BOLTON 269 - up 111 on yesterday & 153 on last week POP SCORE 93 (now 18,702)

ROCHDALE 221 - up 86 on yesterdy & 72 on last week POP SCORE 99 (now 20,035)

TAMESIDE 206 - up 89 on yesterday & 64 on last week POP SCORE 90 (now 19,391)

OLDHAM 196 - up 47 on yesterday & 59 on last week POP SCORE 82 (now 19,657)

wow them numbers are alarming. Turns out Boris wasn't using the virus as a distraction tactic.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Did anyone on the press conference show any of the following?

 

[Healdplace]

we dont sequence all the cases so the 5k will in reality be way higher.

Has to be as they said London was over half Omicron and they had 19,294 just today so had to have had 10,000 or so of them Omicron today alone for that to be true. With many others in the other regions. NW is next highest it seems so a good fraction of those 7623 today will be added. We were likely pushing 20,000 Omicron cases today.

 

[Healdplace]

Did anyone on the press conference show any of the following?

View attachment 31882

View attachment 31884



View attachment 31886

I did not see them do so but I guess they would argue the above is excellent news of how well we have done up to now versus Delta. Had that remained the dominant global problem we would be well set. But we are up against Omicron now and that is like the asteroid wiping out the dinosaurs and we remain unsure how much of that success we will lose against it.

Could be little. Could be lots. And right now that is the only thing that matters as Omicron is what we face. We just need to hope we fare better against it than Delta clearly has. In time with our ingenuity we surely will. In the short term as of between now and February when at current rates this wave will be over we just hope the vaccines hold enough with boosters to minimise the harm to the NHS.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I did not see them do so but I guess they would argue the above is excellent news of how well we have done up to now versus Delta. Had that remained the dominant global problem we would be well set. But we are up against Omicron now and that is like the asteroid wiping out the dinosaurs and we remain unsure how much of that success we will lose against it.

Could be little. Could be lots. And right now that is the only thing that matters as Omicron is what we face. We just need to hope we fare better against it than Delta clearly has. In time with our ingenuity we surely will. In the short term as of between now and February when at current rates this wave will be over we just hope the vaccines hold enough with boosters to minimise the harm to the NHS.

Looking at SA numbers it does look like Omicron might disappear as quickly as it arrived.

 

[Healdplace]

Looking at SA numbers it does look like Omicron might disappear as quickly as it arrived.

If the UK behaves like South Africa this will be over in about 4 - 6 weeks. But that is an if because South Africa is not mid Winter and not the UK with its much older population. So predictions are easy to guess wrong.

I do supect it will rise much more quickly than past waves as all the data so far shows that already but it cannot sustain that for long and sheer numbers tell you it must flatten sooner than a shallow rise wave would do.

The fall will likely then be quite fast too, perhaps a little slower than the rise. Down from a peak around 200,000 in early January. To modest numbers round where we were a month or so ago by late January.

This is more Nostradamus than science I stress - aka a speculative guess - based on how the waves so far have acted and this one has been acting in South Africa. With the caveat the UK is not South Africa and that could change things in several ways.

I fully expect it to be wrong on numbers but not in essence.