I really don’t know but would so like to think so. I keep looking at the figures from Gauteng and read the South African papers daily, half expecting things to go pear shaped, yet it continues to appear positive. Cautiously optimistic.So is it a 2-3 weeks spike with Omicron and then back down to normal?
I was trying to remember when it spiked. The numbers are looking good there though.I really don’t know but would so like to think so. I keep looking at the figures from Gauteng and read the South African papers daily, half expecting things to go pear shaped, yet it continues to appear positive. Cautiously optimistic.
Maybe around the 4th/5th in Gauteng, perhaps just a bit later.I was trying to remember when it spiked. The numbers are looking good there though.
The definition of genocide does not focus on how many people actually died but on the intent and methods used toDefinition of genocide: the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group.
Population of West Bank and Gaza
2000: 2,922,153
2005: 3,320,396
2010: 3,786,161
2015: 4,270,092
2020: 4,803,269
Not really sure that is what is called genocide. Might want to brush up on your sweeping generalisations because what you see being reported isn't always the truth.
Regarding your first point the UN would disagree. What is happening to the Palestinians in Gaza is clearly covered by Article 2 of the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime ofThat isn't even close to being true and is a pretty fucked up thing to say.
Nor is this distasteful conversation relevant to this thread.
Weird how North East Manchester hasn’t taken off whilst the South has.GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS
Weekly Case Totals
Probably to nobody's surprise ALL TEN boroughs now have over 1000 cases a week in the past 7 days & four over 2000 is unprecedented.
Oldham 1138, Tameside 1185, Rochdale 1317, Bolton 1388, Bury 1610, Wigan 1722, Salford 2021, Stockport 2197, Trafford 2255, Manchester 3985
As I note with the Pop Score numbers these areas (led by Bolton but followed by others) were driven quite high over the Summer with Delta because of proximity to the areas where cases of that escalated in East Lancashire and Rossendale. Not sure why that gives them a degree of resistance now. And it may just be that because they were first in and out last time this time round they might be last in and last out.Weird how North East Manchester hasn’t taken off whilst the South has.
if that’s the case they aren’t doing a very good job then are they given the huge population increases. Wind your neck in and maybe try to educate yourself about a complex situation. And whilst you are at it have a look at what other governments around the world are doing to their own people.So basically what the Israeli Goverment is trying to do to the Palestinians?
You are living in a dream land if you believe that the only democraticalily elected government in the region is pursuing a policy of genocide. By your definition thousands of rockets etc being sent indiscriminately into Israel with the sole intention of killing innocent individuals is also genocide. End of discussionThe definition of genocide does not focus on how many people actually died but on the intent and methods used to
achieve the objective so I'm not sure what population growth shows other than to show the genocide hasn't succeeded yet in wiping out the Palestinians ?
Article 2 of the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of
Genocide states :
"In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with
intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as
such:
(a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its
physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group."
In my opinion the actions of Israel, in Gaza in particular, clearly meets several of the acts above so genocide is not a sweeping generalisation.Of course you are free to have a different opinion.
I think the key information in the next week will be how many people are in ICU and how many are on oxygen. With so much Omicron around in society, that will only be reflected in the number of people in hospital testing positive. The media needs to drill down and present those figures as well.I just risked posting the following data in the other thread as they were arguing over what restrictions will come in (as rumoured today in the press circuit breaker immediately post Christmas) and how hospital numbers are the only thing that will drive that and how Omicron changes them.
We do not have to wait long - not weeks - as this is happening much faster than past waves and the impact is already clear in the London data - why I posted it there.
Here are the day to day London patients over the last 2 weeks:-
1069 - 1057 - 1087 - 1102 - 1134 - 1136 - 1163 - 1193 - 1185 - 1253 - 1360 - 1349 - 1372 - 1460 - 1534.
You do not need to be a mathematician to see where Omicron has suddenly become a factor in driving these up and that was quite in tune by at most a few days lag with the case rises.
Where they go over the next week will quickly tell us what will happen everywhere else and if we really are in big trouble.
London Cases in that same period went from 6741 two weeks ago to 9988 a week ago to (in the last three days of that big patient rise) from 12,832 to 26,608 yesterday - easily the most cases now any region has ever had in one day in the whole pandemic.
For context North West is currently up too but only risen a fraction of that rise in the past few days and just under a quarter of the London total (7999).
Possibly a guide to booster numbers too ?For comparison here are the North West patients over those same two weeks: They are starting to rise too but not remotely like London - yet:
784 - 764 - 842 - 796 - 818 - 811 - 832 - 829 - 806 - 830 - 852 - 846 - 856 - 848 - 859
NW a rise of about 10% over the 2 weeks - London a rise of 50%
That is probably a guide to the impact of Omicron on hospital numbers
Numbers on ventilators fluctuate quite a lot with deaths factoring in and smaller numbers meaning they are harder to judge change over short periods and they also lag patients much more as they can stay on icu for weeks being attemopting to be kept stable so it will take longer to see that impact.I think the key information in the next week will be how many people are in ICU and how many are on oxygen. With so much Omicron around in society, that will only be reflected in the number of people in hospital testing positive. The media needs to drill down and present those figures as well.
London has not terribly good vaccination numbers so the fact they are Omicron's first colony here is likely not unconnected.Possibly a guide to booster numbers too ?
The inability to see a big change could be telling in itself, however. South Africa has reported fewer people needing ICU treatment in this wave and that patients tended to need fewer days on oxygen before being discharged. I just fear that many will latch on to headline figures when they may not tell the whole story.Numbers on ventilators fluctuate quite a lot with deaths factoring in and smaller numbers meaning they are harder to judge change over short periods and they also lag patients much more as they can stay on icu for weeks being attemopting to be kept stable so it will take longer to see that impact.
The London ventilated icu numbers over that same period for the patients above are:
187 - 184 - 175 - 189 - 192 - 193 - 197 - 201 - 199 - 197 - 203 - 194 - 195 - 199 - 208
Much harderto see any big change. But Omicron is likely not yet really a factor and will not be until next week at least.Though that rise of 14 over the past 4 days MAY be the start of concern via Omicron. We will see. As right now they are up but nothing like as concerningly as the patients.