COVID Data Thread

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 1 last week - as everywhere deaths kicking in as the legacy of past case rises over Christmas but will fall soon as those cases have fallen

4081 cases - was 3420 last week - THIS looks like a worrying rise - but less so when you see below where it is happening

24,348 weekly cases - was 23,660 yesterday & 33,666 last week

215 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - DOWN 5 ON YESTERDAY - WAS 203 LAST WEEK - This is good news

412 patients - up from 394 yesyerday & down from 440 last week

22 Ventilated - was 22 yeserday & last week


THESE MAY LOOK CONCERNING NUMBERS - BUT - THE TESTING OF SCHOOLKIDS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A BIG REASON AND AS MOST OF THEM WILL NOT BE SICK ENOUGH FOR IT TO IMPACT THE NHS THAT IS GOOD NEWS. ALONG WITH THE CARE HOME FALL - FIRST SIGNIFICANT ONE IN WEEKS

Here are the numbers of age groups testing positive:

0 - 19 (9375)

20 - 39 (7479)

40 - 59 (5674)

60 - 79 (1459)

80 PLUS (356)

So you can see how the school age testing is now dominating the numbers again. AND more importantly the percentage of over 80s is falling

There are now only 7.6% of these cases over the age of 60. It had risen to over 9% over Christmas and clsed in on 10% over New Year. As the most vulnerable this wa a concern with the care home rises - but now BOTH these measures have turned around.

And as we see the under 19s where testing has massively increased are why numbers are up here
 
unicorn said:
Do you think "IT issue" just the NHS shorthand for human issues in collecting and reporting data ? I don't believe it's really a technical issue, but I can believe some parts of the country have occasional difficulties (e.g. staff absences) getting data ready.
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May well be but it has happened a lot across the pandemic. I suspect so much use of IT has occurred because of lockdown that maybe it is just stretched some time and as data needs to be out on a daily deadline might miss it more often than in quieter times. But just a guess.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Tuesday is always the big catch up day and I feared worse. Hopefully this will be the highest number we see here as I am expecting it to continue the now clear signs this is levellng off and will likely fall soon.

299 with 48 North West - was 294 with 46 NW last week (It was 153 with 20 NW week before Christmas) -So doubled since Omicron arrived. But I think we may be seeing the end game of this impact - though we will still have three figure numbers for a week or two I expect.

The last two five day totals have fallen (147 - 133 - 131) after each day for 9 days going up from 92 to 147 suggesting the peak may well have been 11 January which fits exactly as it happens with the Zoe numbers.

Another fit to that conclusion is that 11 Jan after add ons has the highest number of deathso n one day in England hospitals for months - currently 156.

Might yet change and that number will certainly rise over coming days but I suspect it is unlikely the peak date will alter much if at all.

There is a pretty good chance now that the England hospital deaths will stay below a peak of 200 on the worst day.

Not sure how that matches the modelling but I had estimated between 150 and 200 a few weeks back as I recall from how the trends were going without any mathematical modelling (no clue how to do that) and I think we would have all taken such a number when Omicron was first arriving.
 
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Healdplace said:
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Tuesday is always the big catch up day and I feared worse. Hopefully this will be the highest number we see here as I am expecting it to continue the now clear signs this is levellng off and will likely fall soon.

299 with 48 North West - was 294 with 46 NW last week (It was 153 with 20 NW week before Christmas) -So doubled since Omicron arrived. But I think we may be seeing the end game of this impact - though we will still have three figure numbers for a week or two I expect.
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Unvaccinated or vaccinated that is the question?
 
299 ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

By Region:

East 21, London 63, Midlands 73, NE & Yorkshire 54, North West 48, South East 24, South West 16


Most in trusts:

16 in Birmingham, 10 in London NW, 8 in Hartlepool, Leyton & Greenwich and Mid & South Essex


North West trusts:

8 in Bolton, 7 in Mid Cheshire & Morecambe, 6 in Manchester, 4 each in Pennine Acute, Stockport & Warrington, 3 in Salford, 2 in Wigan and 1 each in Liverpool, Southport & St Helens


By Age:

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (5), 40 - 59 (23), 60 - 79 (111), 80 PLUS (159)
 
438 all settings deaths will get all the headlines

It was 379 last week. 358 in England.

Tuesday is ALWAYS the biggest number due to weekend catch up.

England 400 - so UP 101 out of Hospital - biggest number this Winter and I fear involves the unspoken issue in Care Homes that we hae seen rising big in Scotland and N Ireland over past 2 or 3 weeks.

WHERE ARE THE MEDIA ON THIS STORY?

94,432 cases - up 10,003 on yesterday - was 120,821 last week. So down 26,389

84,987 in England - up 10,738 on yesterday & down 19,846 on last week's 104,833
 
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ENGLAnD HOSPITAL NUMBERS

Good news. After small rises over the weekend it has fallen on Tuesday as last week -

Down 403 to 16,218 patients - Last week the fall on Tuesday was 181 to 16,939.

So patients week to week are down 721.

Three days ago the numbers week to week were still rising. The fall has slowly increased day by day since. UP 247 - DOWN 28 - DOWN 499 - DOWN 721

Every single region has fewer patients in today than yesterday.

NW down by 124 to go below 3000 on 2968.

Ventilators also fall by 9 to 614 V 686 last Tuesday.

Admissions (Sunday) were 1768 - down from 1975 last week London up 27 to 304, Midlands down 35 to 389, Yorkshire down 19 to 346 and North West down the most 67 to 295
 
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ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Everyone up today by modets margins.



SOUTH EAST on 14,739 - UP from 12,071 V 10,966 last week & 18,532 2 wks ago

LONDON on 11,116 - UP from 9775 V 11,809 last week & 21,527 2 wks ago



NORTH WEST on 10,177 - UP from 9433 V 16,037 last week & 29,360 2 wks ago - Think we would have taken falling by two thirds in the last 14 days!



WEST MIDLANDS on 10,102 - UP from 9137 V 11,792 last week & 13,520 2 wks ago - second biggest rise today

EAST on 9381 - UP from 8336 V 8852 last week & 15,165 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 9147 - UP from 7752 V 15,866 last week & 14,590 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 7646 - UP from 6502 V 6281 last week & 11,770 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 6990 - UP from 6066 V 8626 last week & 13,175 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 5809 - UP from 4397 V 7634 last week & 10,252 2 wks ago
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY


The numbers are up day to day again. Bar Bolton. But there are still big drops everywhere week to week. Which matters more.

The big falls are starting to disappear - especially from tomorrow onward - as it is much harder to sustain large drops from lower numbers than from the large ones as were.

So a more normal track is likely even without the rises and falls of daily cases.

Stockport had the best day for second day running. Big change in fortune here lately. As Zoe has tracked very well if you follow their numbers in here.


TOTAL 3724 - Up by 459 from 3265 yesterday

North West 10,177 - Up by 744 from 9433 yesterday

GM 36.6% of NW - below average which is good (but it was 35.3% yesterday so up a tad today)

GM is down from 5878 last week by 2154.

North West is down from 16,037 by 5860.

GM was 36.8% of NW - still below par.



MANCHESTER 660 - UP 69 on day & DOWN 419 on week - Pop Score 119 - enough to enter the 27K club (POP 27,102)

WIGAN 431 - UP 67 on day & DOWN 314 on week Pop Score 131. (POP 27,424)

BOLTON 375 - DOWN 24 on day & DOWN 498 on week - enough to stay the only occupant of the 25K club for another day or so. Pop Score 130 (POP 25,828) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - but loses 19 back to Stockport and now 541 ahead.

SALFORD 374 - UP 102 on day & DOWN 190 on week - Pop Score 142 - still only one in the 28K club (POP 28,592) Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic.

TAMESIDE 370 - UP 70 on day & DOWN 22 on week. Pop Score 163* (POP 27,386) * Highest Pop Score in GM today

OLDHAM 332 - UP 82 on day & DOWN 105 on week. Pop Score 139 POP 26,644)

STOCKPORT 326 - UP 19 on day & DOWN 172 on week. Pop Score 111*. Gained 19 back on Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic (POP 26,369) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today

TRAFFORD 297 - UP 30 on day & DOWN 237 on week. Pop Score of 125. (POP 27,132)

BURY 282 - UP 24 on day & DOWN 35 on week. Pop Score 147 Will enter 27K club tomorrow. (POP 26,934)

ROCHDALE 277 - UP 22 on day & DOWN 162 on week. Pop Score 123 (POP 27,385)
 
Healdplace said:
438 all settings deaths will get all the headlines

It was 379 last week. 358 in England.

Tuesday is ALWAYS the biggest number due to weekend catch up.

England 400 - so UP 101 out of Hospital - biggest number this Winter and I fear involves the unspoken issue in Care Homes that we hae seen rising big in Scotland and N Ireland over past 2 or 3 weeks.

WHERE ARE THE MEDIA ON THIS STORY?

94,432 cases - up 10,003 on yesterday - was 120,821 last week. So down 26,389

84,987 in England - up 10,738 on yesterday & down 19,846 on last week's 104,833
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Where are the media ? As I guess you know, they're like little children forever distracted by the latest "drama" and "Gotcha" opportunity, intellectually unable to understand issues, get behind the headlines or follow up after the event.
 
unicorn said:
Where are the media ? As I guess you know, they're like little children forever distracted by the latest "drama" and "Gotcha" opportunity, intellectually unable to understand issues, get behind the headlines or follow up after the event.
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Sadly,yes, I do know. I learnt that quite early in my writing career. Why I have only ever written freelance as I had no editorial policy then to follow. Even then I saw things altered later to fit policy - up to changing the entire focus of what I wrote. Even a TV ad once that promoted something about me for a magazine that turned it into a Hollywood version of what then appeared to be an entirely different story to the one in the magazine.

This is why I quite early decided to stick to writing my own books that my editor never second guessed me about over content as it was usually too specialist for them to know and so they just helped me on style or my (as I think most here will have spotted!) ability to write 1000 words if 100 will do.

Even once had something I had published in a magazine 'borrowed' - as in word for word reprinted by a journalist who published it - with no reference to origin or author - under his own name in a national newspaper. And interviews given to promote a book where the facts were so far removed from what I actually had said to the interviewer that I considered suing myself for libel.

I do understand the dfficulties of covering the pandemic by the media with their now internecine battles for an audience as well as the pressure of deadlines. But it is the reason why I have been doing all this data searching for myself as I never assumed the media would have had the time or inclination to either understand or report on the pandemic without adding their own angle based on the readership they had guidance to reach.
 
WALES DATA

This is now looking good - note the hospital numbers - just like the rest of the UK where numbers are falling not just daily cases.The only thing not doing so yet is the deaths which are the consequence of the high cases 2 weeks or so ago and WILL fall when they catch up in step with the cases from the past week - in a few days time probably. We are very likely more or less at the top of these deaths now in this wave in the UK. And it is well below where it stood in previous waves.

23 deaths - was 14 last week

2136 cases - was 2886 last week

22% - was 24.6% last week

850 patients - was 875 last week

26 ventilated - was 30 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Clear signs now that the deaths have peaked or are about to peak

199 with 25 North West

Was 233 with 41 NW last week & 372 with 66 NW week before (This had an extra days data as post New Year)

But for first time iin normal comparisons deaths week to week are clearly down today V last week

Moreover 14 JAN the latest day to reach 5 days does so on 125 - down from 131 the day before (second successive fall after over a week of rises) AND for the first time (v 130) also DOWN week to week.

The next day - 15 JAN - which will complete tomorrow is not going to follow suit. It is at 141 on just 4 days. So will be up on the 131 last week.

But every day since then is down week to week on where the numbers were at this stage last week.

The weekly 5 day total of the week 09 - 15 JAN - will be in the high 900s - the most since last Winter - but at the moment the signs are this will be the peak probably and deaths either have now just peaked or will do so over the next day or two. So we might well just miss a weekly 5 day deaths total in four figures.

Which I think we would have all taken as the peak of this wave when the nature of Omicron was yet to be clear.
 
199 ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS TODAY

By Region:

East 22, London 60, Midlands 25, NE & Yorkshire 30, North West 25, South East 25, South West 12


Most by trust:-

9 each in Barts, London & Epsom


North West Trusts:-

4 in East Lancashire, 3 each in Mid Cheshire & Pennine Acute, 2 each in Bolton, St Helens & Wirral AND 1 each in Chester, Nth Lancashire, Liverpool Heart, Liverpool NHS. Christies Manchester, Manchester NHS, Southport, Tameside & Warrington


By Age::-

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (14), 60 - 79 (74), 80 PLUS (110)
 
Where are the media (yawn) not sitting f5 ing to get the numbers and rushing them out in the news , hence why you get the headline number then a couple of hours later what is up or down generally speaking , they have many more things to be writing about
 
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