COVID Data Thread

kaz7 said:

Tom Clarke, science editor:​

There has definitely been a drop off in the number of COVID tests being done. This is partly because the system was struggling to cope with the demand for PCR tests in the run up to Christmas, and then because of the change to the requirement for testing brought in to try and manage that demand. We also know that not everybody who tests positive with a lateral flow test will upload that result to the NHS test and trace system.

So right now, we can't simply rely on the daily case numbers as a good indication of whether the outbreak is still growing or not. Nor is it a brilliant reflection of how many cases there actually are



news.sky.com

Are daily cases now meaningless? Is media ignoring vaccine side effects? Why do we have to stick swab up nose? Your questions answered

Sky News has run a series of live Q&As on COVID and the ending of restrictions. Science editor Tom Clarke answered your questions right here in a live online Q&A this afternoon - and an expert panel tackled more of your questions on Sky News.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

​

Regular session by sky , they have reported well and accurately from the start
Click to expand...

Here a comparison of case numbers (red line) vs the ONS survey (blue circles), which isn't affected by the testing issues.

Seems to show the case numbers are a very good indicator of what's going on.

 
ZOE APP PREDICTED DAILY AND ONGOING CASES UK


Predicted cases are UP today for the first time in 10 days or so.


ON 142,422 - UP from 142, 328 yesterday - after past days 144,527 - 149,178 & 152,456

A tiny rise but is a rise. Will have to hope this is just a blip not a real increase that becomes a trend. Though the data in the posts below illuminates on this

Ongoing cases are at 2,362,118 - down from the JAN 11 record higest ever peak of 2.750,987 - so down 388,869 in 10 days. This is still increasing daily at the moment but will lag daily changes a bit.

Yesterday was 2,411,392 (fall of 49,274) and day before 2,464,435 (fall of 53,053 then).

These numbers are now clearly slowing day to day. And support the need to be a little cautious over the stall and small rise of the predicted cases.
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL CASES


The falls in each regions OUTSIDE THE SOUTH are mostly still happening but mostly less than they were AND - somewhat worryingly - ALL of the southern regions that fell the first after going up the first are now rising again today.

THIS is why the numbers on Zoe are going up. The MIdlands and North are still falling. The South is not. And the real case numbers from Gov UK back this up. North West is behind these regions in the daily cases again and has been for a while.

It looks rather likely NW and the other northern regions will follow this track back up in coming weeks. We must hope they do not go up by much and are simply a response to the opening up and the higher numbers of children at school testing positive.

WE ARE THOUGH AT A MORE TRICKY TO CALL POINT OF THE PANDEMIC A IT HAS LOOKED TO BE FROM RECENT PAST NUMBERS.

HOPEFULLY THIS WILL JUST SLOW THE ONGOING TREND NOT ENTIRELY REVERSE IT



Here are the main UK regions and their track

1: NORTH EAST stays top - FROM 2962 / 2721 TO 2794 / 3550 - biggest fall again today

2: LONDON - has gone all the way back up to second after being out of the top 3 for some time since falling first. Rising again FROM 2330 / 2633 TO 2395 / 2703

3 YORKSHIRE falls into third- FROM 2344 / 2789 TO 2278 / 2717 - a fall but less than NW

4 NORTHERN IRELAND - has risen up the list into fourth FROM 1551 / 2858 TO 1784 / 3186

5 Meaning NORTH WEST falls down to fifth place today:

FROM 2306 / 2693 TO 2217 / 2599 - second biggest fall behind the NE today but less than the last few days here


Scotland stays best in UK - BUT is also UP FROM 1338 / 1686 TO 1371 / 1726

Wales has also become the second best in UK and is DOWN today FROM 1415 / 1840 TO 1374 / 1793

The best England region is South West but they are UP again today - like all the southern regions are - FROM 1542 / 1811 TO 1563 / 1833

As well as London and South West, South East is also back up today FROM 1804 / 2013 TO 1864 / 2077
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA

Sunderland - ex biggest score in UK - contiues to fall today big by 6K to 70,390


The area around Preston and the Ribble Valley is now THE hot spot - Chorley just north of the areas in GM such as Wigan and Bolton are now THE highest in UK but flat on 78,902 The areas around it such as Ribble are down but still high 50s and low 60s K.

West Lancashire - between Merseyside & Wigan falls by 6K afer recent saller falls to 49,908.

On Merseyside numbers are falling well too - Liverpool down around 4K to 55,379. St Helens by 4k to 40,006 and Warrington UP slightly on 33,025 & Wirral also on 38,388 so fairly flat but lower than the above.

Cheshire West & Chester is still falling slowly now by 500 only today on 34,520 BUT Cheshire East (sorry Andyhinch) is going the other way but also new very slowly by just 400 - on 48,998


AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - HERE ARE THE TEN BOROUGHS IN ORDER FROM BEST TO WORST


1 OLDHAM 19,826 - down 1K - first GM borough back in the 10Ks for coupke of weeks

2 STOCKPORT 37,372 - down just 500 and after 2 weeks steady large falls it has slowed right down in past couple of days hinting first into the falls may be first out to follow the track of the southern regions in then going back up again.If so the rest of GM will likely be right behind in doing the same. So we need to watch SK over the next few days.

3 BOLTON 46,950 - down 2K and falling more slowly too

4 TRAFFORD 47,259 - been very flat around here and down ust 250 today

5 SALFORD - 49,997- down 3 K - still falling after being 75 K a week ago

6 ROCHDALE 54,464 - down 5k and after having flattened is now dropping fast

7 MANCHESTER 54, 992 - down 3K and aso increasing its falls daily

8 TAMESIDE 72,742 - down 6K and the latest big faller after setting the record ever high score in GM around the peak of the wave last week.

9 WIGAN 73,218 - still going UP by 2K today - risen 27 K in a week

10 BURY 73,269 - up 3 K and more than doubled in a week - biggest riser at the moment
- HOWEVER NOW THIS IS NOT THE HIGHEST IN THE UK - NOT EVEN THE NORTH WEST - AS IT WAS YESYERDAY

CHORLEY - JUST NORTH OF WIGAN AND BURY HAS THAT DUBIOUS HONOUR ON NEARLY 79K.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

Eyes down for Covid Bingo. Pick your numbers now.

16 deaths - was 41 last week - this looks good news

Cases - um - well 7162 or 4106 or whatever inbetween gets added onto Gov UK after they dig up Einstein or run it through Deep Thought .Guessing 4xxx

Was 5977 according to Gov UK last week but not according to the numbers posted here then (it was much higher - or lower or about right but not exact) so not a clue. But I am sticking to the number Gov UK go with later.

The positivty was 16.5% anyway - up from 15.8% yesterday

1511 patients - was 1514 yesterday & 1544 last week - falling here but not rapidly

43 ventilated icu - was 43 yesterday & 56 last week

So hospital numbers slow but not going up is what matters
 
Northern Ireland Data

Todays weekly cases by age range

From 27,756 in total - still edging upwards BUT

42.6% 19 and under - rising every day and by far again the biggest driver of positive tests - as in school testing is the clear reason cases are not dropping like they did. But that is VERY good news

AS just 6.5% over 60 - which is still falling - and about two weeks ago was over 9%

THIS IS WHY RISING CASES ARE NOT AN ISSUE IF THEY ARE GOING DOWN IN THE VULNERABLE AGE GROUPS AND UP IN THE ONE LEAST LIKELY TO GET VERY SICK OR DIE



1642775831298.png
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 4 last week

3568 cases - was 2954 last week - but see above post

27,760 weekly cases - was 26,795 yesterday & 23,108 last week

213 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 218 YESTERDAY & 215 LAST WEEK - HOPEFULLY TURNED AROUND AS THE FALL IN CARE HOME CASES WEEK TO WEEK IN SCOTLAND AND THE FALLING OVER 60s CASES HERE INFERS

398 patients - was 402 yesterday & last week

19 ventilated - was 21 yesterday & 25 last week

JUST AS WE ARE SEEING RECORDS FALL IN VENTILATOR PATIENTS IN ENGLAND - SO T00 HERE.

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2021 THAT NUMBERS IN NI WENT BELOW 20
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Further good evidence deaths here have probably plateaued as suggested by the other data they might about now - a week on from cases and hospital falls

173 with 38 North West -

Was 174 with 24 last week & 161 with 32 two weeks ago.

NW still showing the tail end of the high deaths from the peak cases in recent weeks but these will slowly fall in coming days


The further good news is that none of the last 4 days of add ons are above the equivalent number from last week and 3 of the 4 are down on it - first time this has been true for two or three weeks.

Starting to be confident deaths may be at their ceiling this wave here now.

AS ZOE SHOWED TO BE THE PEAK ON JAN 11 - THAT SAME DATE IS STILL THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF DEATHS RECORDEDTO ONE DAY IN THIS WAVE IN ENGLAND HOSPITALS

IT STS TODAY ON !69.

JAN 14 ON 164 IS CHALLENGING IT AND MIGHT BECOME THE DEATH PEAK DAY SOON - THIS PEAK OFTEN BEING A FEW DAYS BEHIND THE CASES PEAK DAY IN THESE WAVES.
 
ENGLAND 173 HOSPITAL DEATHS

By Region:

East 20, London 36, Midlands 26, NE & Yorkshire 34, North West 38, South East 11, South West 8


Most by trust:

17 in Barts London


North West Trusts:

6 in Manchester, 5 each in Blackpool, Chester, East Lancashire & Morecambe, 3 in East Cheshire, 2 each in Bolton & Liverpool AND 1 each in Mid Cheshire, Southport, Stockport, Tameside & Wigan


By age:

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (9), 60 - 79 (61) & 80 PLUS (102)

Again the gap between young and old - even between the under 80s in the vulnerable group and over 80s is more marked than it was.

This has stood out now for several weeks over Omicron. And post the start of vaccination in Delta it was not so obvious with the 60 - 79 age often even outnumbering the over 80s.

That is rarely happening or even close to happening in Omicron

Anyone looked into that or know what it means as to me it is a signifcant change in the vaccination era.

Could it be waning immunity first in the over 80s as they had the third jab first??
 
288 all settings UK deaths - up from 270 last week

255 in England - UP from 221 last week



95,787 UK cases down from 107, 364 yesterday & 99,652 last week

England only 85,902 - down from 95,974 yesterday & from 87,857 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL FULL NUMBERS TODAY

Good news pretty much all round



ADMISSIONS (Wednesday) (all other data is from today)


1778 - was 1955 last week & 2139 week before


London 285 V 306 V 366

Midlands 333 V 367 V 438

NE & Yorkshire 340 V 385 V 369

AND

NORTH WEST 309 V 386 V 387



PATIENTS

14,865 - down 437 today from 15,302 - Last week was down 179 from 16,716 TO 16,537

Week to week fall 1672 (up from 1414 yesterday) - Previous week was rise of 374 from 16,163 TO 16,537

Daily trend last 4 days:- DOWN 403 - DOWN 476 - DOWN 440 - DOWN 437


Regions (daily change and V last week): - East down 37 to 1286 V 1383, London down 141 to 2918 V 3572, Midlands down 75 to 2832 V 3085, NE & Yorkshire down 87 to 2709 V 2857, South East UP 25 to 1500 V 1565, South West down 39 to 847 V 920

AND NORTH WEST down 83 to 2773 V 3155


Ventilators

552 - down 21 from 573

(daily change and V last week)

A week to week fall of 85 from 637 to 552

Last week was down by 91 from 728 to 637

Regions (daily change and V last week): - East down 5 to 45 V 65, London down 2 to 189 V 204, Midlands down 7 to 96 V 102, NE & Yorkshire down 3 to 85 V 83 , South East down 2 to 53 V 68, South West down 1 to 13 V 31

AND NORTH WEST DOWN 1 to 71 V 84 - better day here for the NW.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

South East has become a problem over last few days and has been well clear of the rest. It is also the only region to ADD patients in the England hospital numbers today. And Zoe has also had it rising the most ongoing cases over past couple of days. So these have all aligned alongside seeing Zoe also report that London has started to reverse its falls and go back up and in the numbers here they have gone ahead of the North West again too.

Question is will this same thing happen to the NW soon and it too start to reverse? And are these case rises all school testing related as it seems reasonable to expect given we KNOW it is happening in N Ireland from the posts here over the last few days - huge increase in 19 and under cases - no rise at all, in fact a small fall, in the more vunerable over 60s?

Meanwhile North West is in FIFTH - its lowest of the new year. Matching progress on Zoe.



SOUTH EAST on 15,180 - DOWN from 16,076 V 12,679 last week & 22,637 2 wks ago

LONDON on 11,887 - DOWN from 14,774 V 12,491 last week & 21,558 2 wks ago

EAST on 10,623 - DOWN from 10,770 V 8815 last week & 14,739 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 9799 - DOWN from 11,032 V 11,049 last week & 16,384 2 wks ago



NORTH WEST on 9375 - DOWN from 10,875 V 11,786 last week & 21,015 2 wks ago



SOUTH WEST on 8150 - DOWN from 8425 V 6645 last week & 11,054 2 wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 8121 -DOWN from 9751 V 9676 last week & 15,711 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 7380 - DOWN from 7542 V 7055 last week & 11,644 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 4847 - DOWN from 5237 V 5907 last week & 10,162 2 wks ago


South East became the second England region after London to post 2 million cases yesterday across the entire pandemic.

North West is today on 1,959,281 - so is on current numbers about 4 or 5 days away from becoming the third to top this milestone.

Everyone else is at least two months away at current numbers from getting there. And North East about two months on current numbers from being the last to reach one million cases.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY


Lowest number since last weekend

A more normal track is inevitable now the big rises are largely reversed and easy to mistead as a set back when it is really just a slower return to normality.

Stockport after some good days running had to settle for one of the not so good ones today.

Zoe has been tracking the progress of GM boroughs pretty well lately V the real data daily. And saw earlier Stockport slowing - though still falling - exactly as it is.


TOTAL CASES 3520 - Down by 474 from 3994 yesterday

North West 9375 - Down by 1500 from 10,875 yesterday

GM 37.5% of NW - below average but OK (has been creeping up a tad day by day from 35%)

GM is down from 4732 last week by 1212

NW is down 11,786 by by 2411.

This is 50.3% of the fall in GM - above average - which is always good news with a fall.




MANCHESTER 705 - DOWN 113 on day & DOWN 299 on week - Pop Score 126 (POP 27,507)

WIGAN 427 - DOWN 38 on day & UP 26 on week Pop Score 129. (POP 27,830)

STOCKPORT 372 - UP 15 on day & DOWN 47 on week. Pop Score 126. Lost 7 back to Bolton today for lowest score in the pandemic and nearly 500 behnd so no real catching Bolton now bar something unexpected (POP 26,737)

BOLTON 344 - DOWN 18 on day & DOWN 129 on week - finally enters the 26K club. Pop Score 119 (POP 26,240) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - gains 7 on Stockport and now 497 ahead.

TAMESIDE 321 - DOWN 70 on day & DOWN 119 on week. Pop Score 141* (POP 27,884) * Highest Pop Score in GM today

TRAFFORD 297 - DOWN 54 on day & DOWN 52 on week. Pop Score of 125. (POP 27,567)

ROCHDALE 279 - DOWN 85 on day & DOWN 136 on week. Pop Score 125 (POP 27,799)

OLDHAM 277 - UP 14 on day & DOWN 148 on week. Pop Score 116 - to enter the 27K club but cut the gap to Stockport to 272 POP 27,009)

SALFORD 272 - DOWN 105 on day & DOWN 221 on week - Pop Score 103 - unexpectedly low score saw them just avoid the 29K club for 24 hours (POP 28,990) Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic. BUT * Lowest Pop Score in GM today

BURY 226 - DOWN 20 on day & DOWN 87 on week. Pop Score 118 . (POP 27,343)
 
GM POP SCORES TODAY

These numbers match what Zoe is showing the boroughs are doing day to day very well


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // UP/DOWN IN DAY // SCORE LAST WEEK // SCORE 4 WEEKS AGO


STOCKPORT 796 / DOWN 16 / 1439 / 1221

OLDHAM 796 / DOWN 63 / 1529 / 916

WIGAN 848 / UP 7 / 1679 / 972

MANCHESTER 857 / DOWN 54 / 1584 / 1466

SALFORD 869 / DOWN 84 / 1764 / 1437

ROCHDALE 884 / DOWN 60 / 1776 / 946

TRAFFORD 889 / DOWN 22 / 1469 / 1359

BURY 908 / DOWN 46 / 1622 / 1205

BOLTON 917 / DOWN 77 / 1751 / 933

TAMESIDE 1045 / DOWN 52 / 1751 / 1134
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

NATION // PATIENTS // VENTILATORS


ENGLAND 14,865 // 552

N IRELAND 398 // 19

SCOTLAND 1511 // 43

WALES 762 // 27


UK TOTAL (V THIS DAY LAST YEAR)

17,336 PATIENTS (V 38,059)

641 VENTILATORS (V 3960)
 
UK DATA (what there is!)

297 all settings deaths - was 287 last week

England 262 V 266 last week

Scotland 30 deaths - was 21 last week

Northern Ireland 5 - was 0 last week

Wales never publishes any data on Saturday




76,807 cases

73,331 in England - no case data at all for Scotland at weekends now apparently. And Wales never posts on Saturday. So only N Ireland do now as well as England.

They posted 3476 cases v 2668 last week

This England total is down from 85,902 yesterday & (just) down from 74,576 last Saturday
 
Healdplace said:
UK DATA (what there is!)

297 all settings deaths - was 287 last week

England 262 V 266 last week

Scotland 30 deaths - was 21 last week

Northern Ireland 5 - was 0 last week

Wales never publishes any data on Saturday




76,807 cases

73,331 in England - no case data at all for Scotland at weekends now apparently. And Wales never posts on Saturday. So only N Ireland do now as well as England.

They posted 3476 cases v 2668 last week

This England total is down from 85,902 yesterday & (just) down from 74,576 last Saturday
Click to expand...
Are you sure about the Scotland data ?

www.gov.scot

Coronavirus (COVID-19): data for Scotland

Information on COVID-19 data sources in Scotland. This page is no longer updated with the latest daily data on COVID-19.
www.gov.scot www.gov.scot

Scottish numbers: 22 January 2022​

Summary​

  • 6,768 new cases of COVID-19 reported. Please note that as of 13 January 2022, this figure includes cases identified using either a first LFD (lateral flow device) or PCR (polymerase chain reaction) positive test
  • 30 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive.
  • 16 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19*
  • 1,458 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19*
 
blueparrot said:
Are you sure about the Scotland data ?

www.gov.scot

Coronavirus (COVID-19): data for Scotland

Information on COVID-19 data sources in Scotland. This page is no longer updated with the latest daily data on COVID-19.
www.gov.scot www.gov.scot

Scottish numbers: 22 January 2022​

Summary​

  • 6,768 new cases of COVID-19 reported. Please note that as of 13 January 2022, this figure includes cases identified using either a first LFD (lateral flow device) or PCR (polymerase chain reaction) positive test
  • 30 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive.
  • 16 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19*
  • 1,458 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19*
Click to expand...
Yes:- Here is what Gov UK say

UK cases figures do not include data from Scotland​

Figures for new positive PCR cases in Scotland are not available at the weekend. Figures will be retrospectively added to the totals for 22 and 23 January when published by Public Health Scotland on Monday 24 January.

Recall the Gov UK number for Scotland each day is NOT any of the numbers Scotland produce in their daily report now and has not been all week. Why I never reported it as it confuses only.

It is discussed often in the Scotland posts here over the last few days as to why they have started doing this.

You will see why I do not refer to the Scotland numbers they post as none are ever the same as what Gov UK officially record later.

Scotland have turmed this into a mess by changing the system for reasons I do not fully understand.

But either way and even if justified then their numbers are going to be different in the UK records and are not in the UK total today and will not be tomorrow.
 
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