COVID Data Thread

1643288306067.pngAnother day another clear sign that the curve has reversed. We may only be 24 hours away from it going back up on Zoe as we seem at the bottom of the well.

Ongoing cases on the graph today are 2,195,229 - down from 2,199,376 by just 4147. The fall yesterday was 14,425 and day before & 23,967 the day before that. Clearly decreasing daily so very likely to be going up tomorrow for the first time since the 11 January peak.

Sadly predicted cases follow the same track.

Today 164,851 - up from 159,486 yesterday by 5365 - the rise yesterday was 4648 & day before & 4178.

Last week it was 142,328 - lowest it got to. It has been rising faster each day since
 
ZOE APP REGIONAL CASES


The order of all 12 UK regions have slightly shifted again today but nearly all are now going up. Only North East is still falling which meant that it is now THIRD on 2587 / 3322 - down 65 - double yesterday.

London - stay top after returning there yesterday from well down the list a few days ago. Today up less than yesterday by 90 TO 2977 / 3321

Yorkshire stays 4th up 63 today TO 2503 / 2962

But the biggest rise today is in the South East - up 138 TO 2350 / 2588


NW today falls into 8th place BUT is still going up as it has been for a few days - though still modestly - from 2110 / 2491 TO 2163 / 2549. Rises of 18 & 26 and now 53 today - so still escalating . Though less than most places today.


Scotland returns to the best in the UK - despite rising again - UP 49 - was up 58 yesterday - to 1514 / 1890

Wales is next best - though up 119 to 1620 / 2074

South West remains the lowest England region in 10th. South West is up more than the NW again - by 95 - one of the highest rises again today but not thre worst - UP TO 1932 / 2230
 
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ZOE NORTH WEST

As you see above NW is going up and the rise increasing but still at a middling increase and this let it fall to 8th out of the 12 UK regions.

Allerdale in the Lake District stays highest in the region outside GM (see below) - but now well down 9K on 68,099

Chorley is falling well too on 57,607- but has fallen 12K in 3 days

Most of the other non GM boroughs are falling too - into the 30 and 40K range.

Even Cheshire East very slightly (46,104) and Cheshire West a little more of a drop (36,591)

Liverpool is fairly flat for a few days round 44K, Wirral has started edging up again on 41,487 - St Helens up 3K today on 41,734

But Sefton has dropped below though flattish now on 29,425

Wyre (Fleetwood coast) is another one rising a lot at the moment - up to 52,688



AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - the big scorers are coming down and the small scorers are going up.

1: OLDHAM - still doing easily the best falling daily on the lowest GM numbers in 2022 down 1K on 10,414

2: SALFORD has done much the same and is now next best down 3K again on 35,764 - though a very long way ahead of Oldham

3: ROCHDALE another falling 2 K today onto 36,442

4: STOCKPORT - might be flattening off - stays 4th and up just 140 now on 40,184

5: TAMESIDE - Rises to 5th after a good fall - 28K in a week - 5 K today on 41,066

6: BOLTON - pulled away and dropped a place rising more today by 3K on 42,902

7: TRAFFORD a bit like Stockport small changes but drifting upward and 10K higher than the boroughs below on 52,608

8: BURY conversely is going down fast now and fallen 23K in a week on 52,948

9: MANCHESTER - though - has started edging up again and now only behind Wigan and up 2K today - on 53,454

10: WIGAN is now clearly going down - 6K today - but still easily the highest in GM on 68,555
 
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SCOTLAND DATA

20 deaths - was 27 last week

CASES:- 8275 / 4882 CITED - GUESSING NEARER 5000 WHEN GOV UK NUMBER ADDED THAN 8000 BUT WHO KNOWS?

15.9% positivity - was 15.8% last week - when 4743 were added by Gov UK from out of the conflicting numbers then neither of which was 4743.

1319 patients - down from 1389 yesterday & 1514 last week

30 ventilated icu - was 32 yesterday & 43 last week

So cases might be mysterious and even be up but what really matters is that the hospital numbers are heading downward regardless of what case number gets conjured up by Gov UK to record officially
 
SCOTLAND CARE HOMES WEEKLY DATA

As of this week there are 262 Care Home outbreaks (25% of total) - last week was 287 (27%) & week before 303 (29%)

Seems hopeful that as in N Ireland these are coming under control week by week.

There were 417 new cases amongst residents & 579 new cases amongst staff this past week

Two weeks ago new cases amongst residents were 818 and 687 last week (V 417 this week)

Two weeks ago new cases amonst staff were 1078 and 732 last week (V 579 this week)
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 2 last week

4243 cases - was 3879 last week

31,895 weekly cases - was 31,233 yesterday & 26,795 last week

197 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 207 YESTERDAY & 218 LAST WEEK -

JUST LIKE SCOTLAND THESE ARE NOW GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND WILL SAVE LIVES

387 patients - was 395 yesterday & 402 last week

18 ventilated - was 17 yesterday & 21 last week
 
338 all settings deaths - up from 330 last week

England only 302 - up from 280 last week

96,871 cases (down 5421 on yesterday & 10,493 on last week's 107,364)

85,288 in England (down 5299 on yesterday & 10,686 on last week's 95,974)
 
England hospital news is good again. Patients and Ventilators both down again

Full details of this and other numbers will follow later.


Admisions (Tuesday) 1681 - was 1794 last week North West 244 V 285 last week

Patients (Today) 13,651 - down 297 on yesterday - was 15,302 last Thursday. after a fall of 440 that day.

North West down 70 to 2476

Ventilated patients 481 - lowest since 13 July.

Down 12 on the day - was 573 last Thursday & 666 the Thursday before & 762 the Thursday before that (6 Jan).

A fall of 281 (37%) in three weeks.

North West down 1 on 62
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

These were late today - possibly after the major error in the hospital data yesterday they needed a check first.

Good numbers though

182 with 22 North West

Was 218 with 46 NW last week & 194 with 42 NW two weeks ago


By region:- East 15, London 30, Midlands 40, NE & Yorkshire 31, North West 22, South East 27, South West 17

Most by trust:- 9 in Medway (other than below)

NW trusts:- 10 in St Helens, 3 each in Pennine Acute, Salford & Wigan AND 1 each in Chester, Morecambe & Southport

By Age:- 40 - 59 (14), 60 - 79 (61), 80 PLUS (107)


The week 16 - 22 JAN at Five Days is now complete and reads V the week before

09 - 15 JAN: 142 - 147 - 147 - 134 - 131 - 125 - 157 = TOTAL 983

16 - 22 JAN: 154 - 160 - 145 - 120 - 114 - 134 - 145 = TOTAL 972

So it was down JUST.

The numbers coming up behind are so far all down on the above week with 23 JAN currently 18 below where 16 JAN was at 4 days & 24 JAN 13 below 17 JAN at three days.

So looking positive that deaths have peaked as I have been suggesting over past few days,

JAN 11 on 172 is still the most on one day even after add ons.

This is the same date that Zoe UK cases peaked.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Key Numbers

Admissions (Tuesday) 1681 V 1794 last week & 2127 two weeks ago



NW 244 V 285 V 401

Clear consistent falls elsewhere too:-

London 213 V 301 V 314

Midlands 348 V 304 V 406

NE & Yorkshire 319 V 402 V 401



Rest of data today:-


Patients 13,651 - DOWN by 297 from 13,948 yesterday V 15,302 last week

Last week the Thursday fall was 440

EVERY region falls today - APART FROM Midlands & South East - NW fell by just 1 less than it rose yesterday!

FALLS

East DOWN by 3 to 1239, London by 83 to 2602, , NE & Yorkshire by 84 to 2430 AND South West by 76 to 835

NORTH WEST DOWN by 70 to 2476


HOWEVER, TWO REGIONS GO UP -


Midlands by 4 to 2613

& South East by 15 to 1456


Ventilators down yet again also by 12 to 481 - down from 493 yesterday V 573 last week

Lowest since mid July

NW 62 - DOWN 1 V 72 last week


The rest

East UP 2 on 48 V 56 last week, London down 10 on 166 V 191 last week, Midlands down 2 on 88 V 103 last week, NE & Yorkshire down 3 to 60 V 88 last week, South East UP 3 on 40 V 55 last week), South West DOWN 2 on 14 V 14 last week
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Southern regions and the northern and midlands in a very clear split now though everyone is down today.



SOUTH EAST on 17,006 - DOWN from 17,236 V 16,076 last week & 13,752 wks ago

LONDON on 11,694 - DOWN from 12,727 V 14,774 last week & 13,938 2 wks ago

EAST on 10,172 - DOWN from 10,840 V 10,770 last week & 9229 2 wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 9177 - DOWN from 9473 V 11,032 last week & 10,593 2 wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 9504 - DOWN from 9792 V 8425 last week & 7198 2 wks ago




NORTH WEST on 8370 - DOWN from 9142 V 10,875 last week & 12,770 2 wks ago




YORKSHIRE on 7344 - DOWN from 8493 V 9751 last week & 10,032 2 wks ago

EAST MIDLANDS on 6905 - DOWN from 7245 V 7542 last week & 8218 2 wks ago

NORTH EAST on 3860 - DOWN from 4415 V 5237 last week & 7450 2 wks ago



North West today finally topped two million cases on 2,007,842 - so becoming the third to top the milestone. London and South East are already being there before today.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS TODAY



Zoe has been tracking the progress of GM boroughs pretty well lately. And saw the recently best in GM Stockport slow over past few days. And it has now flattened off but still as one of the highest in GM. So been top or second in Pop scores daily now for a few days. Most others may track the same way a few days behind. Hopefully not. And for now these are mostly still falling. But at the numbers they now are - like Stockport - will find that hard to do from here on to the same degree.



TOTAL CASES 3150 - DOWN by 204 from 3354 yesterday


North West 8370 - DOWN by 772 from 9142 yesterday

GM 37.6% of NW - the last three days have been in the 33-35% range split of the region recently so this is better to be high when falling. But really around par


GM is also down from 3994 last week by 844


NW is down from 10,875 by 2505.

GM is a bit below the par split of that fall at 33.7% - the higher the better when a fall, of course.

So not quite as a good a day here as recently - Stockport still struggling and up week to week for the THIRD successive day being one of the main reasons. But it is by decreasing tiny numbers and so ia essentially standing still meaning no major harm.



MANCHESTER 571 - DOWN 36 on day & DOWN 247 on week - Pop Score 102 - into the 28K club (POP 28,105)

STOCKPORT 364 - DOWN 2 on day & UP 7 on week. Pop Score 124 . Second highest Pop in GM today after being worst other days. Lost 16 more back to Bolton today as been doing all week for lowest score in the pandemic and now 585 behind. Indeed Oldham is getting closer daily to Stockport and may soon be the challenger to Bolton instead.(POP 27,429)

WIGAN 345 - DOWN 14 on day & DOWN 120 on week Pop Score 104. (POP 28,444)

BOLTON 311 - DOWN 10 on day & DOWN 51 on week. Pop Score 108 Last one standing still in 26K club probably for another two days. (POP 26,845 ) Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - now 585 clear.

TRAFFORD 294 - UP 5 on day & DOWN 57 on week. Pop Score of 123. Into the 28K club (POP 28,239)

TAMESIDE 279 - DOWN 64 on day & DOWN 112 on week. Pop Score 123 (POP 28,625)

SALFORD 271 - DOWN 39 on day & DOWN 106 on week - Pop Score 103 (POP 29,572) *Highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic.

BURY 245 - UP 39 on day & DOWN 1 on week. Pop Score 128 * Will be in 28K club tomorrow. (POP 27,987) * Highest Pop Score in GM today.

OLDHAM 237 - DOWN 56 on day & DOWN 26 on week. Pop Score 100* - cuts the gap to Stockport by 23 to just 159 for the right to challenge Bolton for lowest Pop Score in GM. (POP 27,588) * Lowest Pop Score in GM today

ROCHDALE 233 - DOWN 27 on day & DOWN 131 on week. Pop Score 104 (POP 28,400)
 
GM POP SCORES TODAY

Not done a POP Score table in a few days but this shows how far Stockport has fallen from top last week to near bottom after a series of pretty bad days - and. though it has now flattened off, others have shot ahead. Exactly as the Zoe data daily has revealed. Salford and Oldham and Bolton to a degree have done very well to take advantage of Stockport's struggles. But these things tend to be cyclical and it might be their turn next.


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // UP/DOWN IN DAY // SCORE LAST WEEK // SCORE 4 WEEKS AGO



SALFORD 685 / DOWN 41 / 953 / 2209

OLDHAM 695 / DOWN 9 / 859 / 1745

BOLTON 724 / DOWN 18 / 962 / 1441

MANCHESTER 724 / DOWN 46 / 911 / 2024

ROCHDALE 726 / DOWN 58 / 944 / 1659

WIGAN 743 / DOWN 36 / 841 / 1938

BURY 762 / DOWN 1 / 954 / 1738

TRAFFORD 797 / DOWN 24 / 911 / 2096

STOCKPORT 818 / UP 3 / 812 / 2227

TAMESIDE 882 / DOWN 50 / 1097 / 1901
 
WALES DATA

6 deaths - was 11 last week

2772 cases - was 2427 last week

17.1% positivity - was 15.2% last week

786 patients - was 717 yesterday & 769 last week - bit of a rise here

19 ventilated - was 22 yesterday & 26 last week - but like in England there is a disconnect between patients rising and ventilated ones dropping to lowest levels of the winter.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

16 deaths - was 16 last week

Cases:- 7258 /2972 or whatever it is when they figure it out on Gov UK - last week was 3890 after the Scottish data then showed 7162 / 4106 akin to above - so likely not radically different to the 3890 THAT was created out of those two numbers last week by Harry Potter's Sorting Hat or whatever they use.

16.8% positivity - was 16.5% last week

1302 patients - was 1319 yesterday & 1511 last week

32 ventilated icu - was 30 yesterday & 42 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

8 deaths - was 6 last week

3737 cases - was 3568 last week

32,174 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 31,895 YESTERDAY & 27,760 LAST WEEK

191 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 197 YESTERDAY & 213 LAST WEEK - THIS IS HAPPILY NOW CLEARLY FALLING

363 patients - was 387 yesterday & 398 last week

18 ventilated - was 18 yesterday & 19 last week
 
1643382339772.png

NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE - THE OVER 60s ARE STARTING TO RISE AGAIN.

6.2% OVER 60 IS A LITTLE UP ON 5% AS WAS BUT WELL DOWN ON OVER 9% AS WAS AROUND CHRISTMAS

AND 43.4% 19 AND UNDER - THE HIGHEST STILL IN AGE GROUP 5 - 9 YEARS
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

As flat as a pancake!

174 with 33 North West

Was 173 with 38 NW last week & 174 wth 24 NW two weeks ago

By region:

East 12, London 27, Midlands 31, NE & Yorkshire 40, North West 33, South East 14, South West 17

Most by borough:-

6 each in Calderdale & Sunderland - other than see below where the actual most were


NW boroughs:

7 in East Lancashire,4 each in Liverpool & Nth Lancashire, 3 each in Blackpool, Manchester & Stockport, 2 each in Bolton, Mid Cheshire & Morecambe AND 1 each in East Cheshire, Southport & Warrington

By Age:

0 - 19 (1),40 - 59 (9), 60 - 79 (60), 80 PLUS (104)
 
277 all settings deaths - was 288 last week

England only 247 - was 255 last week

89,176 cases - down 7695 on yesterday - was 95,787 last week

England only 78,711 - down from 85,288 yesterday- was 85,902 last week
 
England Hospital numbers all good again

Admissions down, patients down, even in North West, Ventilators down for 11th consecutive day (by a total of over one third since 7 January)

Headline numbers on the main thread.

Full data will be on here later.
 
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